‹ ›

1940-41 League of Ireland Season

110 games

Final

Champion

Waterford

30 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Waterford

6.75 points above expected

30 points · 23.25 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Bray Unknowns

6.91 points below expected

9 points · 15.91 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Waterford 20 14 2 4 30 62 31 +31 23.25 +6.75
2 Cork United 20 13 4 3 30 50 23 +27 24.72 +5.28
3 Bohemian 20 9 5 6 23 52 44 +8 19.87 +3.13
4 Shamrock Rovers 20 9 3 8 21 48 43 +5 24.45 -3.45
5 St. James Gate 20 9 3 8 21 44 41 +3 24.96 -3.96
6 Drumconda 20 8 4 8 20 44 50 -6 18.55 +1.45
7 Dundalk 20 9 1 10 19 43 42 +1 20.71 -1.71
8 Limerick 20 6 4 10 16 27 44 -17 13.66 +2.34
9 Brideville 20 7 2 11 16 39 57 -18 16.28 -0.28
10 Shelbourne 20 3 9 8 15 23 31 -8 17.64 -2.64
11 Bray Unknowns 20 3 3 14 9 29 55 -26 15.91 -6.91

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Waterford 30 23.25 +6.75
2 Cork United 30 24.72 +5.28
3 Bohemian 23 19.87 +3.13
4 Limerick 16 13.66 +2.34
5 Drumconda 20 18.55 +1.45

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Bray Unknowns 9 15.91 -6.91
2 St. James Gate 21 24.96 -3.96
3 Shamrock Rovers 21 24.45 -3.45
4 Shelbourne 15 17.64 -2.64
5 Dundalk 19 20.71 -1.71

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Cork United 9 Dec 22 – Feb 22 1 in 604
2 Waterford 6 Nov 16 – Dec 29 1 in 292
3 Brideville 2 Dec 21 – Jan 5 1 in 28
4 Bohemian 3 Mar 22 – Apr 5 1 in 23
5 Shamrock Rovers 5 Nov 30 – Jan 5 1 in 23

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 St. James Gate 4 Mar 23 – Apr 26 1 in 228
2 Shamrock Rovers 4 Apr 13 – Apr 30 1 in 51
3 Dundalk 4 Mar 9 – Apr 5 1 in 21
4 Waterford 2 Jan 5 – Jan 11 1 in 18
5 Bray Unknowns 4 Dec 29 – Jan 26 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Limerick 5 Feb 16 – Mar 23 1 in 48
2 Cork United 9 Dec 22 – Feb 22 1 in 30
3 Waterford 6 Nov 16 – Dec 29 1 in 24
4 Shelbourne 4 Jan 22 – Feb 15 1 in 20
5 Shamrock Rovers 8 Nov 24 – Jan 25 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Shelbourne 10 Dec 21 – Mar 19 1 in 78
2 Bray Unknowns 11 Dec 29 – Mar 23 1 in 49
3 Bohemian 6 Jan 25 – Mar 15 1 in 44
4 St. James Gate 5 Mar 23 – Apr 30 1 in 40
5 Shamrock Rovers 5 Jan 12 – Feb 16 1 in 37

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Waterford 1744 30 +25 7 6.9 +0.1
Cork United 1762 30 +8 7 7.2 -0.2
Bohemian 1640 23 +52 8 4.5 +3.5
Shamrock Rovers 1620 21 -77 2 5.6 -3.6
St. James Gate 1685 21 -62 1 6.0 -5.0
Drumconda 1595 20 +53 6 4.6 +1.4
Dundalk 1599 19 -2 6 5.1 +0.9
Brideville 1534 16 +44 6 4.0 +2.0
Limerick 1464 16 -56 1 3.1 -2.1
Shelbourne 1539 15 +3 6 4.2 +1.8
Bray Unknowns 1467 9 -3 3 3.3 -0.3

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BOH BU BRI CU DRU DUN LIM SR SHE SJG WAT
Bohemian —
1-1-0
3.14
1-0-1
3.50
1-0-1
2.11
1-0-1
3.06
1-0-1
2.86
1-1-0
3.61
1-1-0
2.27
0-2-0
3.05
1-0-1
2.01
1-0-1
2.09
Bray Unknowns
0-1-1
2.48
—
0-1-1
2.74
0-0-2
1.45
0-0-2
2.51
1-0-1
2.06
1-0-1
2.87
0-0-2
1.67
0-1-1
2.49
1-0-1
1.33
0-0-2
1.74
Brideville
1-0-1
2.12
1-1-0
2.87
—
0-0-2
1.95
0-0-2
2.71
1-0-1
2.10
1-0-1
3.21
0-0-2
1.83
1-0-1
2.55
0-1-1
1.69
2-0-0
1.44
Cork United
1-0-1
3.51
2-0-0
4.18
2-0-0
3.67
—
1-1-0
3.49
2-0-0
3.34
2-0-0
4.00
1-1-0
2.90
1-1-0
3.97
1-1-0
2.83
0-0-2
3.08
Drumconda
1-0-1
2.56
2-0-0
3.10
2-0-0
2.91
0-1-1
2.14
—
1-0-1
2.56
0-1-1
3.53
1-0-1
1.94
0-2-0
3.03
0-0-2
1.71
1-0-1
2.57
Dundalk
1-0-1
2.75
1-0-1
3.56
1-0-1
3.52
0-0-2
2.28
1-0-1
3.05
—
1-0-1
3.91
1-1-0
1.92
2-0-0
3.09
1-0-1
2.09
0-0-2
2.56
Limerick
0-1-1
2.01
1-0-1
2.75
1-0-1
2.41
0-0-2
1.62
1-1-0
2.09
1-0-1
1.71
—
0-0-2
1.30
1-1-0
2.30
1-0-1
1.23
0-1-1
1.30
Shamrock Rovers
0-1-1
3.34
2-0-0
3.95
2-0-0
3.80
0-1-1
2.72
1-0-1
3.68
0-1-1
3.70
2-0-0
4.33
—
2-0-0
3.45
0-0-2
2.76
0-0-2
2.72
Shelbourne
0-2-0
2.56
1-1-0
3.12
1-0-1
3.06
0-1-1
1.65
0-2-0
2.59
0-0-2
2.52
0-1-1
3.31
0-0-2
2.17
—
1-1-0
1.72
0-1-1
2.55
St. James Gate
1-0-1
3.61
1-0-1
4.30
1-1-0
3.94
0-1-1
2.78
2-0-0
3.91
1-0-1
3.53
1-0-1
4.41
2-0-0
2.86
0-1-1
3.90
—
0-0-2
3.07
Waterford
1-0-1
3.53
2-0-0
3.89
0-0-2
4.19
2-0-0
2.54
1-0-1
3.05
2-0-0
3.05
1-1-0
4.33
2-0-0
2.90
1-1-0
3.07
2-0-0
2.55
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.73 +4.6
Allowed 0.48 -4.2
Differential 0.94 +3.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.64%2.73%2.73%2.73%1.36%1.82%15.00%
12.73%3.64%6.36%5.45%2.27%4.09%24.55%
22.73%6.36%10.91%3.64%3.18%1.36%28.18%
32.73%5.45%3.64%—1.36%1.36%14.55%
41.36%2.27%3.18%1.36%—0.45%8.64%
5+1.82%4.09%1.36%1.36%0.45%—9.09%
Total15.00%24.55%28.18%14.55%8.64%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.10 2.10 +0.00
SD 1.59 1.59 2.44
CV 0.76 0.76 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 110

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———5.00%5.00%—10.00%
1——10.00%5.00%——15.00%
2—10.00%25.00%—5.00%—40.00%
3—5.00%5.00%———10.00%
4———5.00%——5.00%
5+—10.00%5.00%—5.00%—20.00%
Total—25.00%45.00%15.00%15.00%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.60 2.20 +0.40
SD 1.88 1.01 2.30
CV 0.72 0.46 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 1 -4

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%—5.00%—5.00%—15.00%
1——15.00%20.00%—10.00%45.00%
2——10.00%—5.00%5.00%20.00%
3—15.00%——5.00%—20.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total5.00%15.00%30.00%20.00%15.00%15.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 2.75 -1.30
SD 1.00 1.55 1.95
CV 0.69 0.56 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———5.00%——5.00%
15.00%—5.00%—10.00%10.00%30.00%
25.00%—10.00%5.00%10.00%10.00%40.00%
35.00%—10.00%———15.00%
45.00%—5.00%———10.00%
5+———————
Total20.00%—30.00%10.00%20.00%20.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.95 2.85 -0.90
SD 1.05 2.03 2.61
CV 0.54 0.71 —
Max 4 7 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%———5.00%—10.00%
15.00%10.00%10.00%———25.00%
2—10.00%5.00%———15.00%
35.00%20.00%————25.00%
4—10.00%5.00%———15.00%
5+5.00%5.00%————10.00%
Total20.00%55.00%20.00%—5.00%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.50 1.15 +1.35
SD 1.76 0.93 2.21
CV 0.70 0.81 —
Max 7 4 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%5.00%—5.00%—5.00%20.00%
15.00%10.00%——10.00%—25.00%
2—5.00%5.00%———10.00%
3——10.00%——10.00%20.00%
4——5.00%5.00%—5.00%15.00%
5+—10.00%————10.00%
Total10.00%30.00%20.00%10.00%10.00%20.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.20 2.50 -0.30
SD 1.79 1.91 2.56
CV 0.82 0.76 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—10.00%—10.00%—5.00%25.00%
1——5.00%10.00%—5.00%20.00%
215.00%—5.00%—5.00%—25.00%
3——5.00%———5.00%
45.00%5.00%————10.00%
5+—5.00%5.00%5.00%——15.00%
Total20.00%20.00%20.00%25.00%5.00%10.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.15 2.10 +0.05
SD 2.08 1.68 3.03
CV 0.97 0.80 —
Max 7 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%5.00%10.00%——5.00%30.00%
15.00%——15.00%—5.00%25.00%
2—15.00%10.00%5.00%——30.00%
35.00%————5.00%10.00%
4——5.00%———5.00%
5+———————
Total20.00%20.00%25.00%20.00%—15.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.35 2.20 -0.85
SD 1.18 1.96 2.23
CV 0.88 0.89 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%——5.00%——10.00%
1————5.00%10.00%15.00%
210.00%—10.00%5.00%5.00%—30.00%
3—15.00%——10.00%—25.00%
4—10.00%————10.00%
5+5.00%5.00%————10.00%
Total20.00%30.00%10.00%10.00%20.00%10.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.40 2.15 +0.25
SD 1.43 1.84 2.75
CV 0.60 0.86 —
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%10.00%15.00%———35.00%
1—10.00%10.00%5.00%——25.00%
2—5.00%25.00%———30.00%
3—5.00%5.00%———10.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total10.00%30.00%55.00%5.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.15 1.55 -0.40
SD 1.04 0.76 1.10
CV 0.90 0.49 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—————5.00%5.00%
110.00%5.00%15.00%5.00%——35.00%
2—10.00%10.00%10.00%5.00%—35.00%
3———————
4——5.00%5.00%——10.00%
5+—10.00%—5.00%——15.00%
Total10.00%25.00%30.00%25.00%5.00%5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.20 2.05 +0.15
SD 1.54 1.28 2.08
CV 0.70 0.62 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1—5.00%———5.00%10.00%
2—15.00%5.00%15.00%——35.00%
315.00%—5.00%———20.00%
45.00%—10.00%———15.00%
5+10.00%—5.00%5.00%——20.00%
Total30.00%20.00%25.00%20.00%—5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.10 1.55 +1.55
SD 1.52 1.39 2.35
CV 0.49 0.90 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 1 0 -4

Games Played: 20

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Cork United 1762 30 24.72 +5.28 93.0% 16 19 22 25 27 31 34
Waterford 1744 30 23.25 +6.75 98.0% 14 16 21 23 25 28 32
St. James Gate 1685 21 24.96 -3.96 14.0% 14 18 22 25 27 31 33
Bohemian 1640 23 19.87 +3.13 88.0% 7 15 18 20 22 25 29
Shamrock Rovers 1620 21 24.45 -3.45 22.0% 15 18 22 25 27 31 33
Dundalk 1599 19 20.71 -1.71 41.0% 11 14 18 20 23 27 33
Drumconda 1595 20 18.55 +1.45 66.0% 8 13 16 18 21 24 26
Shelbourne 1539 15 17.64 -2.64 27.0% 9 11 15 17 20 24 26
Brideville 1534 16 16.28 -0.28 48.0% 8 10 14 17 18 21 25
Bray Unknowns 1467 9 15.91 -6.91 7.0% 7 9 13 16 19 22 25
Limerick 1464 16 13.66 +2.34 79.0% 7 9 11 13 15 20 23

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8.5% * Slight Edge: 8.5% to 12.5% * Clear Edge: 12.5% to 19% * Strong Edge: 19% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+18.18%
Clear Edge
50.00%18.18%31.82%
Elo Value
Home Edge
153 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
063.88400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.75 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.42+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.22 * Runaway: 0.22 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.3
Wide Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
8%
Waterford, 4th of 11
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.120.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.88 * Some Luck: 2.88 to 4.33 * Lucky: 4.33 to 5.77 * Wild Swing: 5.77 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.41 * Close: 1.41 to 2.11 * Off: 2.11 to 2.81 * Way Off: 2.81 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 11 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 11 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 11 * As Expected: 11 to 17.6 * Several Outliers: 17.6 to 24.2 * Many Outliers: 24.2 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.00 points
Some Luck
03.619
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.82
Close
01.764
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.45%
98.00%
Waterford
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.55%
7.00%
Bray Unknowns
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 11
Minimal Outliers
01.111

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.95 * Strong Separation: 1.95 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 76.5% * Wide Edge: 76.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 87.5% * Clear Edge: 87.5% to 91.5% * Strong Edge: 91.5% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 59% * Frequent: 59% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.
Gini Index
0.16
Even
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 100.09
1.54
Coin-Flip Parity
11.71.952.22.75
Interquartile Edge
67%
Even
50%68%76.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
85%
Even
50%88%100%
Close Games
Expected
46%
Few
0%46%100%
Blowouts
Expected
28%
Very Frequent
0%31%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Notable Separation: 0.41 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.56 * Strong Carryover: 0.56 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 20.5% * As Expected: 20.5% to 23% * Upset-Prone: 23% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 20% * Shaky Favorites: 20% to 23% * Very Shaky: 23% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.572
Matchup Imbalance
0.38
Slight Separation
00.370.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.24
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.19
Weak Carryover
00.360.560.691
Upset Rate
Expected
31%
Very Upset-Prone
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
25%
Very Shaky
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.3 * Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.
Probability calibration
0.85
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.68
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.077
Well Within Noise
00.1480.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team1234567891011
Waterford8.00%27.00%15.00%18.00%14.00%9.00%3.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%—
Cork United28.00%14.00%22.00%11.00%13.00%8.00%—1.00%2.00%1.00%—
Bohemian3.00%5.00%11.00%8.00%20.00%16.00%16.00%8.00%9.00%3.00%1.00%
Shamrock Rovers24.00%21.00%17.00%12.00%8.00%4.00%11.00%—3.00%——
St. James Gate29.00%24.00%13.00%18.00%5.00%3.00%2.00%4.00%1.00%1.00%—
Drumconda—3.00%6.00%7.00%12.00%16.00%12.00%17.00%7.00%13.00%7.00%
Dundalk6.00%5.00%9.00%11.00%16.00%19.00%10.00%9.00%9.00%4.00%2.00%
Limerick——1.00%3.00%1.00%2.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%25.00%50.00%
Brideville——1.00%4.00%4.00%4.00%13.00%24.00%27.00%13.00%10.00%
Shelbourne2.00%1.00%4.00%6.00%2.00%11.00%17.00%16.00%19.00%16.00%6.00%
Bray Unknowns——1.00%2.00%5.00%8.00%11.00%14.00%14.00%21.00%24.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Bohemian 100%
Bray Unknowns 100%
Brideville 100%
Cork United 100%
Drumconda 100%
Dundalk 100%
Limerick 100%
Shamrock Rovers 100%
Shelbourne 100%
St. James Gate 100%
Waterford 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1940-11-16 Waterford L 1-265.1 1603 1563 57.76% 19.12% 23.12%+0.68 -13.1 0
1940-11-16 @ Shelbourne W 2-165.1 1563 1603 23.12% 19.12% 57.76%-0.68 +13.1 2
1940-11-17 Bohemian L 1-361.4 1585 1585 53.15% 19.22% 27.63%+0.42 -21.0 0
1940-11-17 @ Bray Unknowns W 3-161.4 1585 1585 27.63% 19.22% 53.15%-0.42 +21.0 2
1940-11-17 Brideville W 4-150.5 1624 1575 58.67% 19.09% 22.24%+0.74 +14.2 2
1940-11-17 @ Cork United L 1-450.5 1575 1624 22.24% 19.09% 58.67%-0.74 -14.2 0
1940-11-17 Dundalk W 1-054.8 1620 1634 51.40% 19.25% 29.35%+0.33 +7.8 2
1940-11-17 @ Drumconda L 0-154.8 1634 1620 29.35% 19.25% 51.40%-0.33 -7.8 0
1940-11-17 Shamrock Rovers W 4-366.6 1722 1670 58.99% 19.08% 21.93%+0.76 +5.3 2
1940-11-17 @ St. James Gate L 3-466.6 1670 1722 21.93% 19.08% 58.99%-0.76 -5.3 0
1940-11-23 Shelbourne D 2-273.4 1606 1590 55.03% 19.19% 25.79%+0.52 -1.2 3
1940-11-23 @ Bohemian D 2-273.4 1590 1606 25.79% 19.19% 55.03%-0.52 +1.2 1
1940-11-24 Bray Unknowns W 4-044.1 1561 1564 52.76% 19.23% 28.01%+0.40 +26.8 2
1940-11-24 @ Brideville L 0-444.1 1564 1561 28.01% 19.23% 52.76%-0.40 -26.8 0
1940-11-24 St. James Gate L 0-150.9 1470 1727 20.72% 18.74% 60.54%-1.26 -5.7 0
1940-11-24 @ Limerick W 1-050.9 1727 1470 60.54% 18.74% 20.72%+1.26 +5.7 4
1940-11-24 Cork United D 0-068.0 1664 1638 56.23% 19.16% 24.61%+0.59 -2.0 1
1940-11-24 @ Shamrock Rovers D 0-068.0 1638 1664 24.61% 19.16% 56.23%-0.59 +2.0 3
1940-11-24 Drumconda W 6-048.6 1576 1628 46.46% 19.28% 34.26%+0.08 +46.5 4
1940-11-24 @ Waterford L 0-648.6 1628 1576 34.26% 19.28% 46.46%-0.08 -46.5 2
1940-11-30 Shamrock Rovers L 0-255.9 1591 1662 43.85% 19.28% 36.87%-0.05 -20.5 1
1940-11-30 @ Shelbourne W 2-055.9 1662 1591 36.87% 19.28% 43.85%+0.05 +20.5 3
1940-12-01 Dundalk W 3-157.1 1537 1627 41.26% 19.27% 39.47%-0.17 +16.3 2
1940-12-01 @ Bray Unknowns L 1-357.1 1627 1537 39.47% 19.27% 41.26%+0.17 -16.3 0
1940-12-01 Bohemian L 1-266.6 1640 1605 57.20% 19.14% 23.66%+0.65 -13.0 3
1940-12-01 @ Cork United W 2-166.6 1605 1640 23.66% 19.14% 57.20%-0.65 +13.0 5
1940-12-01 Limerick D 0-061.6 1582 1464 65.13% 18.80% 16.07%+1.19 -3.2 3
1940-12-01 @ Drumconda D 0-061.6 1464 1582 16.07% 18.80% 65.13%-1.19 +3.2 1
1940-12-01 Brideville D 2-275.6 1733 1587 67.33% 18.64% 14.03%+1.37 -2.3 5
1940-12-01 @ St. James Gate D 2-275.6 1587 1733 14.03% 18.64% 67.33%-1.37 +2.3 3
1940-12-08 Drumconda L 2-466.4 1590 1578 54.51% 19.20% 26.29%+0.49 -19.2 3
1940-12-08 @ Brideville W 4-266.4 1578 1590 26.29% 19.20% 54.51%-0.49 +19.2 5
1940-12-08 St. James Gate W 3-268.7 1610 1730 36.96% 19.24% 43.80%-0.37 +9.7 2
1940-12-08 @ Dundalk L 2-368.7 1730 1610 43.80% 19.24% 36.96%+0.37 -9.7 5
1940-12-08 Shelbourne W 1-052.4 1467 1571 39.29% 19.26% 41.46%-0.26 +10.4 3
1940-12-08 @ Limerick L 0-152.4 1571 1467 41.46% 19.26% 39.29%+0.26 -10.4 1
1940-12-08 Bray Unknowns W 3-151.3 1683 1553 66.12% 18.73% 15.15%+1.27 +7.1 5
1940-12-08 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-351.3 1553 1683 15.15% 18.73% 66.12%-1.27 -7.1 2
1940-12-08 Cork United W 4-047.1 1622 1627 52.59% 19.23% 28.18%+0.39 +27.0 6
1940-12-08 @ Waterford L 0-447.1 1627 1622 28.18% 19.23% 52.59%-0.39 -27.0 3
1940-12-14 Bray Unknowns W 3-151.4 1560 1546 54.82% 19.19% 25.99%+0.51 +11.5 3
1940-12-14 @ Shelbourne L 1-351.4 1546 1560 25.99% 19.19% 54.82%-0.51 -11.5 2
1940-12-15 Shamrock Rovers L 1-456.2 1571 1690 37.04% 19.24% 43.72%-0.36 -21.8 3
1940-12-15 @ Brideville W 4-156.2 1690 1571 43.72% 19.24% 37.04%+0.36 +21.8 7
1940-12-15 Bohemian L 2-360.7 1478 1618 34.23% 19.20% 46.57%-0.50 -7.9 3
1940-12-15 @ Limerick W 3-260.7 1618 1478 46.57% 19.20% 34.23%+0.50 +7.9 7
1940-12-15 Drumconda W 1-051.4 1721 1598 65.59% 18.77% 15.64%+1.22 +4.5 7
1940-12-15 @ St. James Gate L 0-151.4 1598 1721 15.64% 18.77% 65.59%-1.22 -4.5 5
1940-12-15 Dundalk W 5-046.1 1649 1620 56.54% 19.15% 24.31%+0.61 +29.3 8
1940-12-15 @ Waterford L 0-546.1 1620 1649 24.31% 19.15% 56.54%-0.61 -29.3 2
1940-12-21 Brideville L 0-159.5 1572 1549 55.84% 19.17% 24.99%+0.57 -13.5 3
1940-12-21 @ Shelbourne W 1-059.5 1549 1572 24.99% 19.17% 55.84%-0.57 +13.5 5
1940-12-22 Limerick W 3-146.1 1535 1470 60.32% 19.04% 20.64%+0.84 +9.4 4
1940-12-22 @ Bray Unknowns L 1-346.1 1470 1535 20.64% 19.04% 60.32%-0.84 -9.4 3
1940-12-22 Dundalk W 1-052.6 1600 1591 54.24% 19.20% 26.56%+0.48 +7.2 5
1940-12-22 @ Cork United L 0-152.6 1591 1600 26.56% 19.20% 54.24%-0.48 -7.2 2
1940-12-22 Bohemian W 2-158.5 1593 1626 49.07% 19.27% 31.66%+0.21 +7.8 7
1940-12-22 @ Drumconda L 1-258.5 1626 1593 31.66% 19.27% 49.07%-0.21 -7.8 7
1940-12-22 Waterford L 1-268.8 1725 1679 58.42% 19.10% 22.48%+0.72 -13.3 7
1940-12-22 @ St. James Gate W 2-168.8 1679 1725 22.48% 19.10% 58.42%-0.72 +13.3 10
1940-12-28 St. James Gate L 1-262.9 1618 1712 40.62% 19.27% 40.11%-0.20 -9.6 7
1940-12-28 @ Bohemian W 2-162.9 1712 1618 40.11% 19.27% 40.62%+0.20 +9.6 9
1940-12-29 Waterford L 2-461.5 1544 1692 33.20% 19.18% 47.62%-0.55 -12.6 4
1940-12-29 @ Bray Unknowns W 4-261.5 1692 1544 47.62% 19.18% 33.20%+0.55 +12.6 12
1940-12-29 Shelbourne W 2-047.6 1584 1558 56.10% 19.16% 24.74%+0.58 +12.7 4
1940-12-29 @ Dundalk L 0-247.6 1558 1584 24.74% 19.16% 56.10%-0.58 -12.7 3
1940-12-29 Cork United L 1-352.3 1460 1607 33.33% 19.18% 47.49%-0.54 -14.1 3
1940-12-29 @ Limerick W 3-152.3 1607 1460 47.49% 19.18% 33.33%+0.54 +14.1 7
1940-12-29 Drumconda W 4-150.6 1712 1601 64.57% 18.83% 16.59%+1.14 +10.9 9
1940-12-29 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-450.6 1601 1712 16.59% 18.83% 64.57%-1.14 -10.9 7
1941-01-05 Bohemian W 4-046.5 1596 1608 51.70% 19.24% 29.06%+0.34 +27.7 6
1941-01-05 @ Dundalk L 0-446.5 1608 1596 29.06% 19.24% 51.70%-0.34 -27.7 7
1941-01-05 Cork United L 1-458.9 1590 1621 49.23% 19.27% 31.50%+0.21 -27.7 7
1941-01-05 @ Drumconda W 4-158.9 1621 1590 31.50% 19.27% 49.23%-0.21 +27.7 9
1941-01-05 Shamrock Rovers L 1-350.9 1446 1723 18.92% 18.62% 62.45%-1.39 -8.7 3
1941-01-05 @ Limerick W 3-150.9 1723 1446 62.45% 18.62% 18.92%+1.39 +8.6 11
1941-01-05 Bray Unknowns W 2-152.7 1721 1531 70.45% 18.35% 11.20%+1.66 +3.1 11
1941-01-05 @ St. James Gate L 1-252.7 1531 1721 11.20% 18.35% 70.45%-1.66 -3.1 4
1941-01-05 Brideville L 2-374.6 1704 1562 67.11% 18.66% 14.23%+1.35 -14.5 12
1941-01-05 @ Waterford W 3-274.6 1562 1704 14.23% 18.66% 67.11%-1.35 +14.5 7
1941-01-11 Waterford W 5-156.3 1580 1690 38.42% 19.25% 42.33%-0.30 +31.4 9
1941-01-11 @ Bohemian L 1-556.3 1690 1580 42.33% 19.25% 38.42%+0.30 -31.4 12
1941-01-12 Drumconda L 3-469.0 1528 1562 48.88% 19.27% 31.85%+0.20 -10.4 4
1941-01-12 @ Bray Unknowns W 4-369.0 1562 1528 31.85% 19.27% 48.88%-0.20 +10.4 9
1941-01-12 Limerick L 2-464.9 1577 1437 66.88% 18.68% 14.44%+1.33 -23.5 7
1941-01-12 @ Brideville W 4-264.9 1437 1577 14.44% 18.68% 66.88%-1.33 +23.5 5
1941-01-12 Shelbourne W 2-153.5 1649 1546 63.92% 18.87% 17.21%+1.09 +4.6 11
1941-01-12 @ Cork United L 1-253.5 1546 1649 17.21% 18.87% 63.92%-1.09 -4.6 3
1941-01-12 Dundalk D 2-275.9 1731 1624 64.27% 18.85% 16.88%+1.12 -2.0 12
1941-01-12 @ Shamrock Rovers D 2-275.9 1624 1731 16.88% 18.85% 64.27%-1.12 +2.0 7
1941-01-19 St. James Gate W 5-051.1 1654 1724 43.89% 19.28% 36.83%-0.05 +41.5 13
1941-01-19 @ Cork United L 0-551.1 1724 1654 36.83% 19.28% 43.89%+0.05 -41.5 11
1941-01-19 Dundalk W 2-160.3 1461 1626 30.98% 19.13% 49.89%-0.66 +11.4 7
1941-01-19 @ Limerick L 1-260.3 1626 1461 49.89% 19.13% 30.98%+0.66 -11.4 7
1941-01-22 Drumconda D 1-166.6 1541 1573 49.17% 19.27% 31.56%+0.21 -1.0 4
1941-01-22 @ Shelbourne D 1-166.6 1573 1541 31.56% 19.27% 49.17%-0.21 +0.9 10
1941-01-25 Shamrock Rovers D 2-275.6 1612 1729 37.31% 19.24% 43.45%-0.35 +0.2 10
1941-01-25 @ Bohemian D 2-275.6 1729 1612 43.45% 19.24% 37.31%+0.35 -0.2 13
1941-01-26 Cork United L 1-355.2 1518 1695 29.47% 19.09% 51.44%-0.74 -12.8 4
1941-01-26 @ Bray Unknowns W 3-155.2 1695 1518 51.44% 19.09% 29.47%+0.74 +12.8 15
1941-01-26 Brideville W 7-249.3 1615 1553 59.96% 19.05% 20.99%+0.82 +17.8 9
1941-01-26 @ Dundalk L 2-749.3 1553 1615 20.99% 19.05% 59.96%-0.82 -17.8 7
1941-01-26 Shelbourne D 2-274.1 1683 1540 67.16% 18.66% 14.18%+1.35 -2.3 12
1941-01-26 @ St. James Gate D 2-274.1 1540 1683 14.18% 18.66% 67.16%-1.35 +2.3 5
1941-01-26 Limerick W 6-351.6 1659 1472 70.20% 18.38% 11.42%+1.64 +6.2 14
1941-01-26 @ Waterford L 3-651.6 1472 1659 11.42% 18.38% 70.20%-1.64 -6.2 7
1941-01-29 Waterford L 2-374.1 1729 1665 60.25% 19.04% 20.71%+0.84 -13.0 13
1941-01-29 @ Shamrock Rovers W 3-274.1 1665 1729 20.71% 19.04% 60.25%-0.84 +13.0 16
1941-02-01 Bray Unknowns D 2-271.3 1612 1505 64.23% 18.85% 16.91%+1.12 -2.0 11
1941-02-01 @ Bohemian D 2-271.3 1505 1612 16.91% 18.85% 64.23%-1.12 +2.0 5
1941-02-02 Cork United L 0-348.9 1535 1708 30.04% 19.11% 50.86%-0.71 -21.7 7
1941-02-02 @ Brideville W 3-048.9 1708 1535 50.86% 19.11% 30.04%+0.71 +21.7 17
1941-02-02 Drumconda W 5-360.4 1632 1574 59.70% 19.06% 21.24%+0.80 +8.1 11
1941-02-02 @ Dundalk L 3-560.4 1574 1632 21.24% 19.06% 59.70%-0.80 -8.1 10
1941-02-02 St. James Gate L 1-562.1 1716 1681 57.23% 19.14% 23.64%+0.65 -41.1 13
1941-02-02 @ Shamrock Rovers W 5-162.1 1681 1716 23.64% 19.14% 57.23%-0.65 +41.1 14
1941-02-02 Shelbourne D 1-169.6 1678 1542 66.58% 18.70% 14.72%+1.30 -3.0 17
1941-02-02 @ Waterford D 1-169.6 1542 1678 14.72% 18.70% 66.58%-1.30 +3.0 6
1941-02-12 Bohemian W 4-260.9 1514 1610 40.27% 19.27% 40.46%-0.21 +14.8 9
1941-02-12 @ Brideville L 2-460.9 1610 1514 40.46% 19.27% 40.27%+0.21 -14.8 11
1941-02-15 Bohemian D 2-271.9 1545 1595 46.78% 19.28% 33.95%+0.09 -0.5 7
1941-02-15 @ Shelbourne D 2-271.9 1595 1545 33.95% 19.28% 46.78%-0.09 +0.5 12
1941-02-16 Brideville D 2-268.4 1507 1528 50.52% 19.25% 30.22%+0.28 -0.8 6
1941-02-16 @ Bray Unknowns D 2-268.4 1528 1507 30.22% 19.25% 50.52%-0.28 +0.8 10
1941-02-16 Shamrock Rovers W 4-260.0 1730 1675 59.27% 19.07% 21.66%+0.78 +8.8 19
1941-02-16 @ Cork United L 2-460.0 1675 1730 21.66% 19.07% 59.27%-0.78 -8.8 13
1941-02-16 Waterford W 3-266.9 1565 1675 38.47% 19.25% 42.28%-0.30 +9.4 12
1941-02-16 @ Drumconda L 2-366.9 1675 1565 42.28% 19.25% 38.47%+0.30 -9.4 17
1941-02-16 Limerick L 1-270.1 1722 1466 74.16% 17.84% 8.01%+2.09 -16.9 14
1941-02-16 @ St. James Gate W 2-170.1 1466 1722 8.01% 17.84% 74.16%-2.09 +16.9 9
1941-02-22 Cork United L 1-358.4 1596 1738 33.88% 19.19% 46.93%-0.52 -14.4 12
1941-02-22 @ Bohemian W 3-158.4 1738 1596 46.93% 19.19% 33.88%+0.52 +14.3 21
1941-02-23 St. James Gate L 1-551.9 1529 1705 29.65% 19.10% 51.26%-0.73 -23.4 10
1941-02-23 @ Brideville W 5-151.9 1705 1529 51.26% 19.10% 29.65%+0.73 +23.4 16
1941-02-23 Bray Unknowns W 6-144.5 1641 1506 66.48% 18.71% 14.81%+1.30 +15.6 13
1941-02-23 @ Dundalk L 1-644.5 1506 1641 14.81% 18.71% 66.48%-1.30 -15.6 6
1941-02-23 Drumconda W 3-046.8 1483 1575 40.95% 19.27% 39.78%-0.18 +27.4 11
1941-02-23 @ Limerick L 0-346.8 1575 1483 39.78% 19.27% 40.95%+0.18 -27.4 12
1941-02-23 Shelbourne W 3-151.0 1666 1545 65.45% 18.78% 15.77%+1.21 +7.4 15
1941-02-23 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-351.0 1545 1666 15.77% 18.78% 65.45%-1.21 -7.4 7
1941-03-04 Bray Unknowns W 5-250.2 1665 1491 69.42% 18.46% 12.12%+1.56 +7.1 19
1941-03-04 @ Waterford L 2-550.2 1491 1665 12.12% 18.46% 69.42%-1.56 -7.1 6
1941-03-09 Shamrock Rovers L 0-249.0 1484 1674 27.94% 19.05% 53.01%-0.82 -14.1 6
1941-03-09 @ Bray Unknowns W 2-049.0 1674 1484 53.01% 19.05% 27.94%+0.82 +14.1 17
1941-03-09 Waterford L 1-269.9 1753 1672 61.82% 18.97% 19.20%+0.94 -14.0 21
1941-03-09 @ Cork United W 2-169.9 1672 1753 19.20% 18.97% 61.82%-0.94 +14.0 21
1941-03-09 Brideville W 3-255.9 1547 1506 57.90% 19.12% 22.98%+0.69 +5.7 14
1941-03-09 @ Drumconda L 2-355.9 1506 1547 22.98% 19.12% 57.90%-0.69 -5.7 10
1941-03-09 Dundalk W 4-259.3 1728 1656 61.03% 19.01% 19.96%+0.89 +8.2 18
1941-03-09 @ St. James Gate L 2-459.3 1656 1728 19.96% 19.01% 61.03%-0.89 -8.2 13
1941-03-15 Limerick D 2-270.5 1581 1511 60.89% 19.01% 20.09%+0.88 -1.7 13
1941-03-15 @ Bohemian D 2-270.5 1511 1581 20.09% 19.01% 60.89%-0.88 +1.7 12
1941-03-16 Shelbourne D 0-060.1 1470 1537 44.32% 19.28% 36.40%-0.03 -0.5 7
1941-03-16 @ Bray Unknowns D 0-060.1 1537 1470 36.40% 19.28% 44.32%+0.03 +0.5 8
1941-03-16 Waterford L 0-355.7 1648 1686 48.30% 19.27% 32.43%+0.17 -32.3 13
1941-03-16 @ Dundalk W 3-055.7 1686 1648 32.43% 19.27% 48.30%-0.17 +32.3 23
1941-03-16 St. James Gate L 3-564.1 1553 1736 28.71% 19.07% 52.22%-0.78 -10.5 14
1941-03-16 @ Drumconda W 5-364.1 1736 1553 52.22% 19.07% 28.71%+0.78 +10.5 20
1941-03-16 Brideville W 5-145.2 1688 1500 70.29% 18.37% 11.34%+1.65 +9.9 19
1941-03-16 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-545.2 1500 1688 11.34% 18.37% 70.29%-1.65 -9.9 10
1941-03-19 Limerick D 0-061.7 1538 1512 56.13% 19.16% 24.70%+0.59 -2.0 9
1941-03-19 @ Shelbourne D 0-061.7 1512 1538 24.70% 19.16% 56.13%-0.59 +2.0 13
1941-03-22 Drumconda W 6-460.5 1580 1543 57.40% 19.13% 23.47%+0.66 +8.6 15
1941-03-22 @ Bohemian L 4-660.5 1543 1580 23.47% 19.13% 57.40%-0.66 -8.6 14
1941-03-23 Shelbourne L 1-257.4 1490 1536 47.32% 19.28% 33.40%+0.12 -10.9 10
1941-03-23 @ Brideville W 2-157.4 1536 1490 33.40% 19.28% 47.32%-0.12 +10.9 11
1941-03-23 Cork United L 1-359.5 1616 1739 36.54% 19.23% 44.23%-0.39 -15.3 13
1941-03-23 @ Dundalk W 3-159.5 1739 1616 44.23% 19.23% 36.54%+0.39 +15.3 23
1941-03-23 Bray Unknowns W 2-148.4 1514 1469 58.27% 19.11% 22.63%+0.71 +5.9 15
1941-03-23 @ Limerick L 1-248.4 1469 1514 22.63% 19.11% 58.27%-0.71 -5.9 7
1941-03-23 St. James Gate W 4-263.2 1719 1747 49.61% 19.26% 31.13%+0.23 +12.0 25
1941-03-23 @ Waterford L 2-463.2 1747 1719 31.13% 19.26% 49.61%-0.23 -12.0 20
1941-03-26 Bohemian L 1-270.7 1735 1588 67.46% 18.63% 13.91%+1.38 -15.3 20
1941-03-26 @ St. James Gate W 2-170.7 1588 1735 13.91% 18.63% 67.46%-1.38 +15.3 17
1941-04-05 Dundalk W 6-149.8 1604 1600 53.52% 19.21% 27.26%+0.44 +26.8 19
1941-04-05 @ Bohemian L 1-649.8 1600 1604 27.26% 19.21% 53.52%-0.44 -26.8 13
1941-04-06 St. James Gate W 3-163.8 1463 1720 20.79% 18.74% 60.47%-1.26 +23.7 9
1941-04-06 @ Bray Unknowns L 1-363.8 1720 1463 60.47% 18.74% 20.79%+1.26 -23.7 20
1941-04-06 Waterford W 3-271.5 1479 1731 21.28% 18.77% 59.95%-1.23 +12.9 12
1941-04-06 @ Brideville L 2-371.5 1731 1479 59.95% 18.77% 21.28%+1.23 -12.9 25
1941-04-06 Drumconda D 1-170.9 1754 1534 72.26% 18.13% 9.61%+1.86 -3.8 24
1941-04-06 @ Cork United D 1-170.9 1534 1754 9.61% 18.13% 72.26%-1.86 +3.8 15
1941-04-06 Limerick W 5-041.3 1697 1520 69.62% 18.44% 11.94%+1.58 +15.4 21
1941-04-06 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-541.3 1520 1697 11.94% 18.44% 69.62%-1.58 -15.4 15
1941-04-07 Limerick W 7-144.6 1750 1505 73.64% 17.92% 8.44%+2.02 +10.8 26
1941-04-07 @ Cork United L 1-744.6 1505 1750 8.44% 17.92% 73.64%-2.02 -10.8 15
1941-04-12 Cork United D 2-275.4 1547 1761 25.16% 18.95% 55.89%-0.98 +1.3 12
1941-04-12 @ Shelbourne D 2-275.4 1761 1547 55.89% 18.95% 25.16%+0.98 -1.3 27
1941-04-13 Shamrock Rovers W 4-159.4 1574 1713 34.33% 19.20% 46.47%-0.49 +26.3 15
1941-04-13 @ Dundalk L 1-459.4 1713 1574 46.47% 19.20% 34.33%+0.49 -26.3 21
1941-04-13 Bray Unknowns W 5-143.5 1538 1487 58.86% 19.09% 22.05%+0.75 +18.2 17
1941-04-13 @ Drumconda L 1-543.5 1487 1538 22.05% 19.09% 58.86%-0.75 -18.2 9
1941-04-13 Brideville L 0-250.8 1494 1492 53.37% 19.22% 27.42%+0.43 -24.4 15
1941-04-13 @ Limerick W 2-050.8 1492 1494 27.42% 19.22% 53.37%-0.43 +24.4 14
1941-04-13 Bohemian W 3-046.8 1718 1630 62.49% 18.94% 18.57%+0.99 +14.3 27
1941-04-13 @ Waterford L 0-346.8 1630 1718 18.57% 18.94% 62.49%-0.99 -14.3 19
1941-04-16 Dundalk L 0-254.4 1548 1600 46.52% 19.28% 34.21%+0.08 -21.5 12
1941-04-16 @ Shelbourne W 2-054.4 1600 1548 34.21% 19.28% 46.52%-0.08 +21.5 17
1941-04-19 Shelbourne D 2-270.1 1556 1527 56.54% 19.15% 24.30%+0.61 -1.4 18
1941-04-19 @ Drumconda D 2-270.1 1527 1556 24.30% 19.15% 56.54%-0.61 +1.3 13
1941-04-20 Limerick W 2-042.5 1621 1470 67.83% 18.60% 13.57%+1.41 +7.4 19
1941-04-20 @ Dundalk L 0-242.5 1470 1621 13.57% 18.60% 67.83%-1.41 -7.4 15
1941-04-21 Shamrock Rovers W 6-156.0 1555 1687 35.32% 19.21% 45.47%-0.45 +40.9 20
1941-04-21 @ Drumconda L 1-656.0 1687 1555 45.47% 19.21% 35.32%+0.45 -40.9 21
1941-04-22 Brideville W 6-248.9 1616 1517 63.57% 18.89% 17.54%+1.07 +12.6 21
1941-04-22 @ Bohemian L 2-648.9 1517 1616 17.54% 18.89% 63.57%-1.07 -12.6 14
1941-04-26 St. James Gate W 3-269.0 1528 1696 30.60% 19.12% 50.27%-0.68 +10.9 15
1941-04-26 @ Shelbourne L 2-369.0 1696 1528 50.27% 19.12% 30.60%+0.68 -10.9 20
1941-04-27 Dundalk W 3-050.7 1504 1629 36.28% 19.23% 44.50%-0.40 +30.1 16
1941-04-27 @ Brideville L 0-350.7 1629 1504 44.50% 19.23% 36.28%+0.40 -30.1 19
1941-04-27 Bray Unknowns W 2-150.7 1760 1469 75.81% 17.52% 6.67%+2.32 +1.9 29
1941-04-27 @ Cork United L 1-250.7 1469 1760 6.67% 17.52% 75.81%-2.32 -1.9 9
1941-04-27 Waterford D 2-273.5 1462 1732 19.53% 18.66% 61.81%-1.35 +1.8 16
1941-04-27 @ Limerick D 2-273.5 1732 1462 61.81% 18.66% 19.53%+1.35 -1.8 28
1941-04-27 Bohemian L 3-475.3 1646 1629 55.17% 19.18% 25.65%+0.53 -11.6 21
1941-04-27 @ Shamrock Rovers W 4-375.3 1629 1646 25.65% 19.18% 55.17%-0.53 +11.6 23
1941-04-30 Cork United D 1-171.9 1685 1761 43.12% 19.28% 37.60%-0.08 -0.3 21
1941-04-30 @ St. James Gate D 1-171.9 1761 1685 37.60% 19.28% 43.12%+0.08 +0.3 30
1941-04-30 Shamrock Rovers W 3-046.7 1730 1634 63.29% 18.90% 17.80%+1.05 +13.8 30
1941-04-30 @ Waterford L 0-346.7 1634 1730 17.80% 18.90% 63.29%-1.05 -13.8 21

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1941-02-16 8.01% Limerick 1466 2 @ St. James Gate 1722 1
2 1941-03-26 13.91% Bohemian 1588 2 @ St. James Gate 1735 1
3 1941-01-05 14.23% Brideville 1562 3 @ Waterford 1704 2
4 1941-01-12 14.44% Limerick 1437 4 @ Brideville 1577 2
5 1941-03-09 19.20% Waterford 1672 2 @ Cork United 1753 1
6 1941-01-29 20.71% Waterford 1665 3 @ Shamrock Rovers 1729 2
7 1941-04-06 20.79% @ Bray Unknowns 1463 3 St. James Gate 1720 1
8 1941-04-06 21.28% @ Brideville 1479 3 Waterford 1731 2
9 1940-12-22 22.48% Waterford 1679 2 @ St. James Gate 1725 1
10 1940-11-16 23.12% Waterford 1563 2 @ Shelbourne 1603 1
11 1941-02-02 23.64% St. James Gate 1681 5 @ Shamrock Rovers 1716 1
12 1940-12-01 23.66% Bohemian 1605 2 @ Cork United 1640 1
13 1940-12-21 24.99% Brideville 1549 1 @ Shelbourne 1572 0
14 1941-04-27 25.65% Bohemian 1629 4 @ Shamrock Rovers 1646 3
15 1940-12-08 26.29% Drumconda 1578 4 @ Brideville 1590 2
16 1941-04-13 27.42% Brideville 1492 2 @ Limerick 1494 0
17 1940-11-17 27.63% Bohemian 1585 3 @ Bray Unknowns 1585 1
18 1941-04-26 30.60% @ Shelbourne 1528 3 St. James Gate 1696 2
19 1941-01-19 30.98% @ Limerick 1461 2 Dundalk 1626 1
20 1941-01-05 31.50% Cork United 1621 4 @ Drumconda 1590 1
21 1941-01-12 31.85% Drumconda 1562 4 @ Bray Unknowns 1528 3
22 1941-03-16 32.43% Waterford 1686 3 @ Dundalk 1648 0
23 1941-03-23 33.40% Shelbourne 1536 2 @ Brideville 1490 1
24 1941-04-16 34.21% Dundalk 1600 2 @ Shelbourne 1548 0
25 1941-04-13 34.33% @ Dundalk 1574 4 Shamrock Rovers 1713 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1940-11-24 46.47 @ Waterford 6 1576 46.46% Drumconda 0 1628 34.26% 19.28%
2 1941-01-19 41.52 @ Cork United 5 1654 43.89% St. James Gate 0 1724 36.83% 19.28%
3 1941-02-02 41.15 St. James Gate 5 1681 23.64% @ Shamrock Rovers 1 1716 57.23% 19.14%
4 1941-04-21 40.87 @ Drumconda 6 1555 35.32% Shamrock Rovers 1 1687 45.47% 19.21%
5 1941-03-16 32.33 Waterford 3 1686 32.43% @ Dundalk 0 1648 48.30% 19.27%
6 1941-01-11 31.43 @ Bohemian 5 1580 38.42% Waterford 1 1690 42.33% 19.25%
7 1941-04-27 30.09 @ Brideville 3 1504 36.28% Dundalk 0 1629 44.50% 19.23%
8 1940-12-15 29.29 @ Waterford 5 1649 56.54% Dundalk 0 1620 24.31% 19.15%
9 1941-01-05 27.73 Cork United 4 1621 31.50% @ Drumconda 1 1590 49.23% 19.27%
10 1941-01-05 27.68 @ Dundalk 4 1596 51.70% Bohemian 0 1608 29.06% 19.24%
11 1941-02-23 27.45 @ Limerick 3 1483 40.95% Drumconda 0 1575 39.78% 19.27%
12 1940-12-08 26.96 @ Waterford 4 1622 52.59% Cork United 0 1627 28.18% 19.23%
13 1940-11-24 26.83 @ Brideville 4 1561 52.76% Bray Unknowns 0 1564 28.01% 19.23%
14 1941-04-05 26.76 @ Bohemian 6 1604 53.52% Dundalk 1 1600 27.26% 19.21%
15 1941-04-13 26.33 @ Dundalk 4 1574 34.33% Shamrock Rovers 1 1713 46.47% 19.20%
16 1941-04-13 24.36 Brideville 2 1492 27.42% @ Limerick 0 1494 53.37% 19.22%
17 1941-04-06 23.71 @ Bray Unknowns 3 1463 20.79% St. James Gate 1 1720 60.47% 18.74%
18 1941-01-12 23.54 Limerick 4 1437 14.44% @ Brideville 2 1577 66.88% 18.68%
19 1941-02-23 23.41 St. James Gate 5 1705 51.26% @ Brideville 1 1529 29.65% 19.10%
20 1940-12-15 21.84 Shamrock Rovers 4 1690 43.72% @ Brideville 1 1571 37.04% 19.24%
21 1941-02-02 21.74 Cork United 3 1708 50.86% @ Brideville 0 1535 30.04% 19.11%
22 1941-04-16 21.54 Dundalk 2 1600 34.21% @ Shelbourne 0 1548 46.52% 19.28%
23 1940-11-17 21.02 Bohemian 3 1585 27.63% @ Bray Unknowns 1 1585 53.15% 19.22%
24 1940-11-30 20.47 Shamrock Rovers 2 1662 36.87% @ Shelbourne 0 1591 43.85% 19.28%
25 1940-12-08 19.24 Drumconda 4 1578 26.29% @ Brideville 2 1590 54.51% 19.20%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1941-01-12 75.9 @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1731 64.27% Dundalk 2 1624 16.88% 18.85%
2 1940-12-01 75.6 @ St. James Gate 2 1733 67.33% Brideville 2 1587 14.03% 18.64%
3 1941-01-25 75.6 @ Bohemian 2 1612 37.31% Shamrock Rovers 2 1729 43.45% 19.24%
4 1941-04-12 75.4 @ Shelbourne 2 1547 25.16% Cork United 2 1761 55.89% 18.95%
5 1941-04-27 75.3 Bohemian 4 1629 25.65% @ Shamrock Rovers 3 1646 55.17% 19.18%
6 1941-01-05 74.6 Brideville 3 1562 14.23% @ Waterford 2 1704 67.11% 18.66%
7 1941-01-26 74.1 @ St. James Gate 2 1683 67.16% Shelbourne 2 1540 14.18% 18.66%
8 1941-01-29 74.1 Waterford 3 1665 20.71% @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1729 60.25% 19.04%
9 1941-04-27 73.5 @ Limerick 2 1462 19.53% Waterford 2 1732 61.81% 18.66%
10 1940-11-23 73.4 @ Bohemian 2 1606 55.03% Shelbourne 2 1590 25.79% 19.19%
11 1941-02-15 71.9 @ Shelbourne 2 1545 46.78% Bohemian 2 1595 33.95% 19.28%
12 1941-04-30 71.9 @ St. James Gate 1 1685 43.12% Cork United 1 1761 37.60% 19.28%
13 1941-04-06 71.5 @ Brideville 3 1479 21.28% Waterford 2 1731 59.95% 18.77%
14 1941-02-01 71.3 @ Bohemian 2 1612 64.23% Bray Unknowns 2 1505 16.91% 18.85%
15 1941-04-06 70.9 @ Cork United 1 1754 72.26% Drumconda 1 1534 9.61% 18.13%
16 1941-03-26 70.7 Bohemian 2 1588 13.91% @ St. James Gate 1 1735 67.46% 18.63%
17 1941-03-15 70.5 @ Bohemian 2 1581 60.89% Limerick 2 1511 20.09% 19.01%
18 1941-02-16 70.1 Limerick 2 1466 8.01% @ St. James Gate 1 1722 74.16% 17.84%
19 1941-04-19 70.1 @ Drumconda 2 1556 56.54% Shelbourne 2 1527 24.30% 19.15%
20 1941-03-09 69.9 Waterford 2 1672 19.20% @ Cork United 1 1753 61.82% 18.97%
21 1941-02-02 69.6 @ Waterford 1 1678 66.58% Shelbourne 1 1542 14.72% 18.70%
22 1941-01-12 69.0 Drumconda 4 1562 31.85% @ Bray Unknowns 3 1528 48.88% 19.27%
23 1941-04-26 69.0 @ Shelbourne 3 1528 30.60% St. James Gate 2 1696 50.27% 19.12%
24 1940-12-22 68.8 Waterford 2 1679 22.48% @ St. James Gate 1 1725 58.42% 19.10%
25 1940-12-08 68.7 @ Dundalk 3 1610 36.96% St. James Gate 2 1730 43.80% 19.24%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1941-04-06 41.3 @ Shamrock Rovers 5 1697 69.62% Limerick 0 1520 11.94% 18.44%
2 1941-04-20 42.5 @ Dundalk 2 1621 67.83% Limerick 0 1470 13.57% 18.60%
3 1941-04-13 43.5 @ Drumconda 5 1538 58.86% Bray Unknowns 1 1487 22.05% 19.09%
4 1940-11-24 44.1 @ Brideville 4 1561 52.76% Bray Unknowns 0 1564 28.01% 19.23%
5 1941-02-23 44.5 @ Dundalk 6 1641 66.48% Bray Unknowns 1 1506 14.81% 18.71%
6 1941-04-07 44.6 @ Cork United 7 1750 73.64% Limerick 1 1505 8.44% 17.92%
7 1941-03-16 45.2 @ Shamrock Rovers 5 1688 70.29% Brideville 1 1500 11.34% 18.37%
8 1940-12-15 46.1 @ Waterford 5 1649 56.54% Dundalk 0 1620 24.31% 19.15%
9 1940-12-22 46.1 @ Bray Unknowns 3 1535 60.32% Limerick 1 1470 20.64% 19.04%
10 1941-01-05 46.5 @ Dundalk 4 1596 51.70% Bohemian 0 1608 29.06% 19.24%
11 1941-04-30 46.7 @ Waterford 3 1730 63.29% Shamrock Rovers 0 1634 17.80% 18.90%
12 1941-02-23 46.8 @ Limerick 3 1483 40.95% Drumconda 0 1575 39.78% 19.27%
13 1941-04-13 46.8 @ Waterford 3 1718 62.49% Bohemian 0 1630 18.57% 18.94%
14 1940-12-08 47.1 @ Waterford 4 1622 52.59% Cork United 0 1627 28.18% 19.23%
15 1940-12-29 47.6 @ Dundalk 2 1584 56.10% Shelbourne 0 1558 24.74% 19.16%
16 1941-03-23 48.4 @ Limerick 2 1514 58.27% Bray Unknowns 1 1469 22.63% 19.11%
17 1940-11-24 48.6 @ Waterford 6 1576 46.46% Drumconda 0 1628 34.26% 19.28%
18 1941-02-02 48.9 Cork United 3 1708 50.86% @ Brideville 0 1535 30.04% 19.11%
19 1941-04-22 48.9 @ Bohemian 6 1616 63.57% Brideville 2 1517 17.54% 18.89%
20 1941-03-09 49.0 Shamrock Rovers 2 1674 53.01% @ Bray Unknowns 0 1484 27.94% 19.05%
21 1941-01-26 49.3 @ Dundalk 7 1615 59.96% Brideville 2 1553 20.99% 19.05%
22 1941-04-05 49.8 @ Bohemian 6 1604 53.52% Dundalk 1 1600 27.26% 19.21%
23 1941-03-04 50.2 @ Waterford 5 1665 69.42% Bray Unknowns 2 1491 12.12% 18.46%
24 1940-11-17 50.5 @ Cork United 4 1624 58.67% Brideville 1 1575 22.24% 19.09%
25 1940-12-29 50.6 @ Shamrock Rovers 4 1712 64.57% Drumconda 1 1601 16.59% 18.83%