1941-42 League of Ireland Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Cork United

30 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Shamrock Rovers

5.79 points above expected

28 points · 22.21 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Bray Unknowns

8.15 points below expected

3 points · 11.15 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Cork United	18	13	4	1	30	54	20	+34	24.57	+5.43
2	Shamrock Rovers	18	12	4	2	28	52	23	+29	22.21	+5.79
3	Shelbourne	18	8	5	5	21	38	29	+9	19.53	+1.47
4	Dundalk	18	8	3	7	19	45	36	+9	18.78	+0.22
5	St. James Gate	18	7	5	6	19	41	35	+6	22.31	-3.31
6	Brideville	18	5	7	6	17	29	44	-15	15.71	+1.29
7	Limerick	18	6	3	9	15	32	33	-1	13.79	+1.21
8	Bohemian	18	4	6	8	14	29	36	-7	16.53	-2.53
9	Drumconda	18	4	6	8	14	29	49	-20	15.42	-1.42
10	Bray Unknowns	18	0	3	15	3	17	61	-44	11.15	-8.15

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Shamrock Rovers	28	22.21	+5.79
2	Cork United	30	24.57	+5.43
3	Shelbourne	21	19.53	+1.47
4	Brideville	17	15.71	+1.29
5	Limerick	15	13.79	+1.21

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Bray Unknowns	3	11.15	-8.15
2	St. James Gate	19	22.31	-3.31
3	Bohemian	14	16.53	-2.53
4	Drumconda	14	15.42	-1.42
5	Dundalk	19	18.78	+0.22

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Shamrock Rovers	6	Feb 1 – Mar 22	1 in 176
2	Shelbourne	4	Jan 31 – Feb 21	1 in 37
3	Bohemian	2	Dec 21 – Dec 27	1 in 21
4	St. James Gate	4	Dec 28 – Jan 25	1 in 11
5	Limerick	2	Nov 30 – Dec 7	1 in 10

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Bray Unknowns	9	Nov 16 – Jan 11	1 in 346
2	St. James Gate	4	Feb 1 – Feb 22	1 in 82
3	Drumconda	3	Nov 23 – Dec 7	1 in 9
4	Bohemian	2	Nov 16 – Nov 30	1 in 8
5	Cork United	1	Mar 15 – Mar 15	1 in 7

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Cork United	15	Nov 16 – Mar 8	1 in 26
2	Shamrock Rovers	9	Nov 23 – Jan 15	1 in 13
3	Brideville	4	Feb 22 – Mar 22	1 in 8
4	Drumconda	4	Jan 4 – Jan 25	1 in 6
5	Bray Unknowns	2	Mar 15 – Mar 22	1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Bray Unknowns	18	Nov 16 – Mar 29	1 in 29
2	St. James Gate	6	Feb 1 – Mar 15	1 in 28
3	Bohemian	5	Nov 16 – Dec 13	1 in 13
4	Brideville	6	Feb 15 – Mar 29	1 in 11
5	Shelbourne	3	Jan 3 – Jan 24	1 in 7

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Cork United	1883	30	+13	8	7.8	+0.2
Shamrock Rovers	1828	28	+65	9	6.2	+2.8
Shelbourne	1699	21	-17	5	5.6	-0.6
Dundalk	1674	19	+29	6	5.6	+0.4
St. James Gate	1685	17	-5	5	5.8	-0.8
Brideville	1544	17	-6	4	4.3	-0.3
Limerick	1566	15	-8	4	4.2	-0.2
Bohemian	1576	14	+24	5	3.9	+1.1
Drumconda	1517	14	-74	2	4.3	-2.3
Bray Unknowns	1353	3	-21	2	2.3	-0.3

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	BOH	BU	BRI	CU	DRU	DUN	LIM	SR	SHE	SJG
Bohemian	—	1-1-0 3.83	0-0-2 3.08	0-0-2 1.17	1-0-1 2.82	0-2-0 2.30	1-0-1 3.23	0-2-0 1.38	0-0-2 2.18	1-1-0 1.88
Bray Unknowns	0-1-1 1.64	—	0-1-1 1.80	0-0-2 0.75	0-1-1 1.84	0-0-2 1.18	0-0-2 2.14	0-0-2 0.98	0-0-2 1.46	0-0-2 1.58
Brideville	2-0-0 2.38	1-1-0 3.67	—	0-0-2 1.19	0-2-0 2.64	1-0-1 2.20	1-1-0 2.65	0-0-2 1.65	0-2-0 2.39	0-1-1 1.85
Cork United	2-0-0 4.33	2-0-0 4.80	2-0-0 4.32	—	1-1-0 4.04	1-1-0 3.92	2-0-0 4.10	0-1-1 3.15	2-0-0 3.74	1-1-0 3.13
Drumconda	1-0-1 2.64	1-1-0 3.63	0-2-0 2.82	0-1-1 1.44	—	0-0-2 2.26	0-1-1 2.89	0-0-2 2.24	1-1-0 1.77	1-0-1 1.76
Dundalk	0-2-0 3.16	2-0-0 4.31	1-0-1 3.25	0-1-1 1.55	2-0-0 3.20	—	1-0-1 3.37	1-0-1 2.39	1-0-1 2.52	0-0-2 2.49
Limerick	1-0-1 2.22	2-0-0 3.32	0-1-1 2.80	0-0-2 1.40	1-1-0 2.57	1-0-1 2.09	—	1-0-1 1.47	0-0-2 2.19	0-1-1 1.53
Shamrock Rovers	0-2-0 4.11	2-0-0 4.55	2-0-0 3.82	1-1-0 2.31	2-0-0 3.23	1-0-1 3.08	1-0-1 4.00	—	1-1-0 3.21	2-0-0 2.98
Shelbourne	2-0-0 3.27	2-0-0 4.02	0-2-0 3.07	0-0-2 1.73	0-1-1 3.71	1-0-1 2.94	2-0-0 3.27	0-1-1 2.25	—	1-1-0 2.29
St. James Gate	0-1-1 3.60	2-0-0 3.92	1-1-0 3.61	0-1-1 2.33	1-0-1 3.71	2-0-0 2.97	1-1-0 3.94	0-0-2 2.47	0-1-1 3.17	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.90	+6.2
Allowed	0.85	-5.8
Differential	0.93	+3.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.22%	3.33%	2.78%	2.22%	3.33%	2.78%	16.67%
1	3.33%	7.78%	6.11%	2.78%	3.33%	2.78%	26.11%
2	2.78%	6.11%	10.00%	3.89%	1.11%	0.56%	24.44%
3	2.22%	2.78%	3.89%	1.11%	1.11%	—	11.11%
4	3.33%	3.33%	1.11%	1.11%	4.44%	0.56%	13.89%
5+	2.78%	2.78%	0.56%	—	0.56%	1.11%	7.78%
Total	16.67%	26.11%	24.44%	11.11%	13.89%	7.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.02	2.02	+0.00
SD	1.66	1.66	2.55
CV	0.82	0.82	—
Max	7	7	+6
Min	-1	-1	-6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%	—	22.22%
1	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
2	—	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	27.78%
3	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	22.22%	22.22%	22.22%	16.67%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.61	2.00	-0.39
SD	1.29	1.37	1.88
CV	0.80	0.69	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	33.33%
1	—	—	16.67%	—	11.11%	11.11%	38.89%
2	—	—	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	27.78%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	5.56%	38.89%	11.11%	27.78%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.94	3.39	-2.44
SD	0.80	1.79	2.06
CV	0.85	0.53	—
Max	2	7	+0
Min	0	1	-6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	16.67%
1	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	33.33%
2	—	11.11%	16.67%	—	—	—	27.78%
3	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.56%	22.22%	33.33%	11.11%	22.22%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.61	2.44	-0.83
SD	1.14	1.50	1.95
CV	0.71	0.62	—
Max	4	6	+1
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
2	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
3	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
4	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%	—	27.78%
5+	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	44.44%	27.78%	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	3.00	1.11	+1.89
SD	1.41	1.37	1.84
CV	0.47	1.23	—
Max	6	4	+5
Min	1	0	-1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%
1	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
2	—	16.67%	22.22%	—	5.56%	5.56%	50.00%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.56%	22.22%	33.33%	5.56%	16.67%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.61	2.72	-1.11
SD	1.20	1.87	2.52
CV	0.74	0.69	—
Max	4	6	+4
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
1	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	22.22%
2	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
3	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	16.67%
4	—	16.67%	—	—	—	5.56%	22.22%
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	16.67%	27.78%	16.67%	22.22%	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.50	2.00	+0.50
SD	1.50	1.50	2.07
CV	0.60	0.75	—
Max	6	5	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%	22.22%
1	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
2	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
Total	16.67%	27.78%	22.22%	11.11%	5.56%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.72	1.78	-0.06
SD	1.78	1.70	2.80
CV	1.03	0.96	—
Max	6	5	+6
Min	-1	-1	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
1	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
2	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
Total	27.78%	38.89%	22.22%	—	11.11%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.89	1.28	+1.61
SD	2.17	1.23	2.38
CV	0.75	0.96	—
Max	7	4	+6
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
1	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	33.33%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	16.67%
5+	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	33.33%	27.78%	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.11	1.61	+0.50
SD	1.71	1.85	2.75
CV	0.81	1.15	—
Max	5	7	+5
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	22.22%
1	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
2	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
3	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	22.22%
5+	—	11.11%	—	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
Total	—	38.89%	33.33%	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.22	1.89	+0.33
SD	2.26	1.41	2.47
CV	1.02	0.75	—
Max	7	5	+6
Min	-1	-1	-5

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Cork United	1883	30	24.57	+5.43	96.0%	17	19	22	24	26	30	34
Shamrock Rovers	1828	28	22.21	+5.79	98.0%	14	15	20	22	25	28	30
Shelbourne	1699	21	19.53	+1.47	72.0%	10	14	17	20	22	25	26
St. James Gate	1685	19	22.31	-3.31	21.0%	15	16	20	22	25	28	30
Dundalk	1674	19	18.78	+0.22	59.0%	10	13	16	19	21	24	28
Bohemian	1576	14	16.53	-2.53	28.0%	9	11	14	16	19	22	28
Limerick	1566	15	13.79	+1.21	68.0%	8	9	12	14	16	18	20
Brideville	1544	17	15.71	+1.29	68.0%	7	10	13	16	18	21	25
Drumconda	1517	14	15.42	-1.42	40.0%	5	10	13	15	17	21	24
Bray Unknowns	1353	3	11.15	-8.15	0.0%	4	7	9	11	13	17	21

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8.5% * Slight Edge: 8.5% to 12.5% * Clear Edge: 12.5% to 19% * Strong Edge: 19% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+16.67%

Clear Edge

45.56%25.56%28.89%

Elo Value

Home Edge

136 Elo

0.007 goals per Elo point

062.43400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.56 goals

Home-Tilted

-2+0.46+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.22 * Runaway: 0.22 and up.

Title-Race Openness

3.1

Open

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

47%

Cork United, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.11/gm

Tight Race

00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.65 * Some Luck: 2.65 to 3.97 * Lucky: 3.97 to 5.3 * Wild Swing: 5.3 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.14 * Close: 1.14 to 1.71 * Off: 1.71 to 2.27 * Way Off: 2.27 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

3.93 points

Some Luck

03.318

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.20

01.423

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

98.00%

Shamrock Rovers

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

0.00%

Bray Unknowns

050

Season Outliers

Expected

3 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.95 * Strong Separation: 1.95 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 76.5% * Wide Edge: 76.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 87.5% * Clear Edge: 87.5% to 91.5% * Strong Edge: 91.5% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 59% * Frequent: 59% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.

Gini Index

0.22

Lopsided

00.160.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 155.12

2.08

Strong Separation

11.71.952.22.75

Interquartile Edge

70%

Slight Edge

50%68%76.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 95%

95%

Dominant

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

57%

Some Drama

0%44%100%

Blowouts

Expected

30%

Very Frequent

0%33%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Notable Separation: 0.41 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.56 * Strong Carryover: 0.56 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 20.5% * As Expected: 20.5% to 23% * Upset-Prone: 23% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 20% * Shaky Favorites: 20% to 23% * Very Shaky: 23% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.56

Highly Predictable

00.582

Matchup Imbalance

0.47

Notable Separation

00.370.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.42

Chaotic

01.002

Repeatability

0.53

Some Carryover

00.360.560.691

Upset Rate

Expected

19%

Chalky

0%20%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

14%

Solid Favorites

0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.34 * Well Above Noise: 0.34 and up.

Probability calibration

0.96

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.33

Very Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.077

Well Within Noise

00.1690.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Cork United	47.00%	30.00%	12.00%	6.00%	4.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—
Shamrock Rovers	26.00%	23.00%	19.00%	12.00%	10.00%	4.00%	4.00%	—	2.00%	—
Shelbourne	4.00%	11.00%	20.00%	23.00%	18.00%	10.00%	9.00%	2.00%	1.00%	2.00%
Dundalk	4.00%	7.00%	14.00%	22.00%	16.00%	12.00%	11.00%	10.00%	4.00%	—
St. James Gate	18.00%	26.00%	18.00%	19.00%	8.00%	6.00%	4.00%	1.00%	—	—
Brideville	—	1.00%	4.00%	5.00%	11.00%	18.00%	16.00%	22.00%	14.00%	9.00%
Limerick	—	—	1.00%	3.00%	5.00%	15.00%	14.00%	18.00%	26.00%	18.00%
Bohemian	1.00%	1.00%	6.00%	7.00%	12.00%	20.00%	19.00%	18.00%	14.00%	2.00%
Drumconda	—	1.00%	5.00%	3.00%	15.00%	9.00%	18.00%	21.00%	19.00%	9.00%
Bray Unknowns	—	—	1.00%	—	1.00%	5.00%	5.00%	8.00%	20.00%	60.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level
Bohemian	100%
Bray Unknowns	100%
Brideville	100%
Cork United	100%
Drumconda	100%
Dundalk	100%
Limerick	100%
Shamrock Rovers	100%
Shelbourne	100%
St. James Gate	100%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
1941-11-15	St. James Gate	D 4-4	79.3	1602	1690	38.32%	27.41%	34.27%	-0.19	-0.2	1
1941-11-15	@ Shelbourne	D 4-4	79.3	1690	1602	34.27%	27.41%	38.32%	+0.19	+0.1	1
1941-11-16	Bohemian	W 3-2	65.7	1597	1663	41.30%	27.42%	31.29%	-0.03	+10.7	2
1941-11-16	@ Brideville	L 2-3	65.7	1663	1597	31.29%	27.42%	41.30%	+0.03	-10.6	0
1941-11-16	Shamrock Rovers	W 2-1	59.4	1638	1651	48.07%	27.32%	24.62%	+0.37	+9.4	2
1941-11-16	@ Dundalk	L 1-2	59.4	1651	1638	24.62%	27.32%	48.07%	-0.37	-9.4	0
1941-11-16	Bray Unknowns	W 2-1	55.1	1635	1563	56.89%	26.78%	16.32%	+0.99	+6.7	2
1941-11-16	@ Drumconda	L 1-2	55.1	1563	1635	16.32%	26.78%	56.89%	-0.99	-6.7	0
1941-11-16	Cork United	L 1-4	56.0	1550	1737	25.31%	26.96%	47.73%	-0.92	-23.3	0
1941-11-16	@ Limerick	W 4-1	56.0	1737	1550	47.73%	26.96%	25.31%	+0.92	+23.3	2
1941-11-23	St. James Gate	L 1-7	55.0	1556	1690	31.85%	27.28%	40.88%	-0.53	-52.1	0
1941-11-23	@ Bray Unknowns	W 7-1	55.0	1690	1556	40.88%	27.28%	31.85%	+0.53	+52.1	3
1941-11-23	Shelbourne	D 0-0	62.9	1607	1602	50.12%	27.24%	22.63%	+0.50	-2.3	3
1941-11-23	@ Brideville	D 0-0	62.9	1602	1607	22.63%	27.24%	50.12%	-0.50	+2.3	2
1941-11-23	Drumconda	W 4-0	47.4	1760	1642	60.78%	26.31%	12.92%	+1.33	+20.8	4
1941-11-23	@ Cork United	L 0-4	47.4	1642	1760	12.92%	26.31%	60.78%	-1.33	-20.8	2
1941-11-23	Limerick	W 2-1	53.3	1641	1527	60.46%	26.35%	13.18%	+1.30	+5.6	2
1941-11-23	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 1-2	53.3	1527	1641	13.18%	26.35%	60.46%	-1.30	-5.6	0
1941-11-29	Bray Unknowns	W 3-0	43.7	1604	1504	59.34%	26.51%	14.16%	+1.20	+17.3	4
1941-11-29	@ Shelbourne	L 0-3	43.7	1504	1604	14.16%	26.51%	59.34%	-1.20	-17.3	0
1941-11-30	Brideville	W 4-1	53.6	1648	1605	54.07%	27.02%	18.91%	+0.77	+18.6	4
1941-11-30	@ Dundalk	L 1-4	53.6	1605	1648	18.91%	27.02%	54.07%	-0.77	-18.6	3
1941-11-30	Shamrock Rovers	L 0-6	56.7	1621	1647	46.41%	27.36%	26.23%	+0.27	-84.5	2
1941-11-30	@ Drumconda	W 6-0	56.7	1647	1621	26.23%	27.36%	46.41%	-0.27	+84.5	4
1941-11-30	Bohemian	W 3-1	60.1	1521	1652	32.28%	27.29%	40.43%	-0.50	+23.5	2
1941-11-30	@ Limerick	L 1-3	60.1	1652	1521	40.43%	27.29%	32.28%	+0.50	-23.5	0
1941-11-30	Cork United	D 1-1	68.8	1742	1781	44.84%	27.39%	27.77%	+0.17	-1.2	4
1941-11-30	@ St. James Gate	D 1-1	68.8	1781	1742	27.77%	27.39%	44.84%	-0.17	+1.2	5
1941-12-03	Dundalk	D 0-0	64.3	1629	1666	45.00%	27.39%	27.61%	+0.18	-1.4	1
1941-12-03	@ Bohemian	D 0-0	64.3	1666	1629	27.61%	27.39%	45.00%	-0.18	+1.4	5
1941-12-06	Bohemian	W 4-0	49.2	1622	1627	48.88%	27.29%	23.83%	+0.42	+34.7	6
1941-12-06	@ Shelbourne	L 0-4	49.2	1627	1622	23.83%	27.29%	48.88%	-0.42	-34.7	1
1941-12-07	Limerick	L 2-4	60.7	1487	1545	42.35%	27.42%	30.24%	+0.03	-21.8	0
1941-12-07	@ Bray Unknowns	W 4-2	60.7	1545	1487	30.24%	27.42%	42.35%	-0.03	+21.8	4
1941-12-07	Dundalk	W 3-1	55.3	1782	1668	60.46%	26.35%	13.18%	+1.30	+9.7	7
1941-12-07	@ Cork United	L 1-3	55.3	1668	1782	13.18%	26.35%	60.46%	-1.30	-9.7	5
1941-12-07	Brideville	W 4-0	46.1	1732	1586	62.71%	25.98%	11.30%	+1.53	+18.5	6
1941-12-07	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 0-4	46.1	1586	1732	11.30%	25.98%	62.71%	-1.53	-18.5	3
1941-12-07	Drumconda	W 6-1	48.2	1741	1536	66.54%	25.12%	8.34%	+1.97	+14.2	6
1941-12-07	@ St. James Gate	L 1-6	48.2	1536	1741	8.34%	25.12%	66.54%	-1.97	-14.2	2
1941-12-13	Drumconda	L 0-4	55.7	1593	1522	56.74%	26.80%	16.46%	+0.98	-69.3	1
1941-12-13	@ Bohemian	W 4-0	55.7	1522	1593	16.46%	26.80%	56.74%	-0.98	+69.4	4
1941-12-14	Limerick	W 3-2	60.4	1568	1566	49.70%	27.26%	23.04%	+0.47	+8.4	5
1941-12-14	@ Brideville	L 2-3	60.4	1566	1568	23.04%	27.26%	49.70%	-0.47	-8.4	4
1941-12-14	Bray Unknowns	W 4-0	42.2	1792	1465	72.62%	22.88%	4.50%	+2.87	+7.4	9
1941-12-14	@ Cork United	L 0-4	42.2	1465	1792	4.50%	22.88%	72.62%	-2.87	-7.4	0
1941-12-14	Shelbourne	W 3-1	57.4	1658	1656	49.71%	27.26%	23.03%	+0.47	+15.4	7
1941-12-14	@ Dundalk	L 1-3	57.4	1656	1658	23.03%	27.26%	49.71%	-0.47	-15.4	6
1941-12-14	St. James Gate	W 2-0	54.5	1750	1755	48.93%	27.29%	23.78%	+0.42	+18.2	8
1941-12-14	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 0-2	54.5	1755	1750	23.78%	27.29%	48.93%	-0.42	-18.2	6
1941-12-20	Cork United	L 0-1	58.1	1641	1799	28.71%	27.15%	44.13%	-0.71	-11.1	6
1941-12-20	@ Shelbourne	W 1-0	58.1	1799	1641	44.13%	27.15%	28.71%	+0.71	+11.1	11
1941-12-21	Shamrock Rovers	L 0-1	50.8	1457	1768	14.01%	25.57%	60.42%	-1.83	-6.1	0
1941-12-21	@ Bray Unknowns	W 1-0	50.8	1768	1457	60.42%	25.57%	14.01%	+1.83	+6.1	10
1941-12-21	Brideville	D 2-2	69.3	1591	1576	51.19%	27.19%	21.62%	+0.57	-1.7	5
1941-12-21	@ Drumconda	D 2-2	69.3	1576	1591	21.62%	27.19%	51.19%	-0.57	+1.7	6
1941-12-21	Dundalk	W 4-1	59.1	1558	1673	34.43%	27.35%	38.23%	-0.39	+31.9	6
1941-12-21	@ Limerick	L 1-4	59.1	1673	1558	38.23%	27.35%	34.43%	+0.39	-31.9	7
1941-12-21	Bohemian	L 1-2	71.0	1737	1523	67.05%	24.98%	7.97%	+2.03	-21.6	6
1941-12-21	@ St. James Gate	W 2-1	71.0	1523	1737	7.97%	24.98%	67.05%	-2.03	+21.5	3
1941-12-27	Bray Unknowns	W 4-0	38.8	1545	1451	58.76%	26.58%	14.66%	+1.15	+23.3	5
1941-12-27	@ Bohemian	L 0-4	38.8	1451	1545	14.66%	26.58%	58.76%	-1.15	-23.3	0
1941-12-28	St. James Gate	L 1-4	58.0	1578	1715	31.45%	27.26%	41.29%	-0.55	-27.6	6
1941-12-28	@ Brideville	W 4-1	58.0	1715	1578	41.29%	27.26%	31.45%	+0.55	+27.6	8
1941-12-28	Drumconda	W 6-2	54.8	1642	1590	54.98%	26.95%	18.07%	+0.84	+19.6	9
1941-12-28	@ Dundalk	L 2-6	54.8	1590	1642	18.07%	26.95%	54.98%	-0.84	-19.6	5
1941-12-28	Shelbourne	L 0-5	54.9	1590	1630	44.72%	27.39%	27.89%	+0.17	-68.9	6
1941-12-28	@ Limerick	W 5-0	54.9	1630	1590	27.89%	27.39%	44.72%	-0.17	+68.9	8
1941-12-28	Cork United	D 4-4	81.1	1774	1811	45.18%	27.39%	27.43%	+0.19	-0.7	11
1941-12-28	@ Shamrock Rovers	D 4-4	81.1	1811	1774	27.43%	27.39%	45.18%	-0.19	+0.7	12
1942-01-03	Shamrock Rovers	D 2-2	73.1	1699	1774	40.09%	27.42%	32.50%	-0.09	-0.4	9
1942-01-03	@ Shelbourne	D 2-2	73.1	1774	1699	32.50%	27.42%	40.09%	+0.09	+0.4	12
1942-01-04	Brideville	L 1-2	53.3	1428	1551	33.41%	27.32%	39.27%	-0.44	-11.8	0
1942-01-04	@ Bray Unknowns	W 2-1	53.3	1551	1428	39.27%	27.32%	33.41%	+0.44	+11.8	8
1942-01-04	Bohemian	W 2-1	54.1	1811	1568	68.66%	24.48%	6.87%	+2.25	+3.0	14
1942-01-04	@ Cork United	L 1-2	54.1	1568	1811	6.87%	24.48%	68.66%	-2.25	-3.0	5
1942-01-04	Limerick	D 2-2	67.1	1570	1521	54.72%	26.97%	18.30%	+0.82	-2.1	6
1942-01-04	@ Drumconda	D 2-2	67.1	1521	1570	18.30%	26.97%	54.72%	-0.82	+2.1	7
1942-01-04	Dundalk	W 4-3	66.3	1743	1661	57.74%	26.70%	15.56%	+1.06	+6.0	10
1942-01-04	@ St. James Gate	L 3-4	66.3	1661	1743	15.56%	26.70%	57.74%	-1.06	-6.0	9
1942-01-10	Shamrock Rovers	D 1-1	67.9	1565	1774	22.87%	26.78%	50.36%	-1.08	+2.0	6
1942-01-10	@ Bohemian	D 1-1	67.9	1774	1565	50.36%	26.78%	22.87%	+1.08	-2.0	13
1942-01-11	St. James Gate	FL	62.8	1523	1749	21.14%	26.62%	52.24%	-1.20	+0.0	7
1942-01-11	@ Limerick	FW	62.8	1749	1523	52.24%	26.62%	21.14%	+1.20	+0.0	12
1942-01-11	Cork United	L 1-6	52.8	1562	1814	18.67%	26.34%	54.99%	-1.39	-28.8	8
1942-01-11	@ Brideville	W 6-1	52.8	1814	1562	54.99%	26.34%	18.67%	+1.39	+28.8	16
1942-01-11	Bray Unknowns	W 4-1	44.5	1655	1416	68.44%	24.55%	7.01%	+2.22	+7.5	11
1942-01-11	@ Dundalk	L 1-4	44.5	1416	1655	7.01%	24.55%	68.44%	-2.22	-7.6	0
1942-01-11	Shelbourne	W 2-1	63.7	1568	1698	32.38%	27.29%	40.33%	-0.50	+13.5	8
1942-01-11	@ Drumconda	L 1-2	63.7	1698	1568	40.33%	27.29%	32.38%	+0.50	-13.5	9
1942-01-15	Dundalk	W 5-4	68.1	1772	1663	60.04%	26.41%	13.55%	+1.26	+5.2	15
1942-01-15	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 4-5	68.1	1663	1772	13.55%	26.41%	60.04%	-1.26	-5.2	11
1942-01-17	Brideville	L 2-3	68.3	1567	1534	53.16%	27.08%	19.76%	+0.71	-16.3	6
1942-01-17	@ Bohemian	W 3-2	68.3	1534	1567	19.76%	27.08%	53.16%	-0.71	+16.3	10
1942-01-18	Drumconda	D 2-2	63.4	1409	1582	26.93%	27.06%	46.01%	-0.81	+1.0	1
1942-01-18	@ Bray Unknowns	D 2-2	63.4	1582	1409	46.01%	27.06%	26.93%	+0.81	-1.0	9
1942-01-18	Limerick	W 3-2	57.7	1843	1523	72.30%	23.02%	4.67%	+2.81	+1.9	18
1942-01-18	@ Cork United	L 2-3	57.7	1523	1843	4.67%	23.02%	72.30%	-2.81	-1.9	7
1942-01-24	Brideville	D 1-1	66.6	1685	1550	61.99%	26.11%	11.90%	+1.45	-4.1	10
1942-01-24	@ Shelbourne	D 1-1	66.6	1550	1685	11.90%	26.11%	61.99%	-1.45	+4.1	11
1942-01-25	Bohemian	D 3-3	75.1	1658	1551	59.83%	26.44%	13.72%	+1.24	-2.3	12
1942-01-25	@ Dundalk	D 3-3	75.1	1551	1658	13.72%	26.44%	59.83%	-1.24	+2.3	7
1942-01-25	Cork United	D 4-4	80.9	1581	1845	17.58%	26.19%	56.23%	-1.49	+1.6	10
1942-01-25	@ Drumconda	D 4-4	80.9	1845	1581	56.23%	26.19%	17.58%	+1.49	-1.6	19
1942-01-25	Shamrock Rovers	W 2-0	62.2	1521	1777	18.30%	26.29%	55.40%	-1.43	+35.5	9
1942-01-25	@ Limerick	L 0-2	62.2	1777	1521	55.40%	26.29%	18.30%	+1.43	-35.5	15
1942-01-25	Bray Unknowns	W 3-2	54.0	1749	1410	73.13%	22.63%	4.24%	+2.96	+1.7	14
1942-01-25	@ St. James Gate	L 2-3	54.0	1410	1749	4.24%	22.63%	73.13%	-2.96	-1.7	1
1942-01-31	Limerick	W 1-0	51.2	1553	1557	49.11%	27.28%	23.60%	+0.43	+9.6	9
1942-01-31	@ Bohemian	L 0-1	51.2	1557	1553	23.60%	27.28%	49.11%	-0.43	-9.6	9
1942-01-31	Shelbourne	L 1-2	51.9	1408	1681	16.88%	26.09%	57.03%	-1.55	-6.8	1
1942-01-31	@ Bray Unknowns	W 2-1	51.9	1681	1408	57.03%	26.09%	16.88%	+1.55	+6.8	12
1942-02-01	Dundalk	W 2-1	61.5	1554	1655	36.40%	27.38%	36.22%	-0.29	+12.5	13
1942-02-01	@ Brideville	L 1-2	61.5	1655	1554	36.22%	27.38%	36.40%	+0.29	-12.5	12
1942-02-01	St. James Gate	W 5-0	48.6	1843	1751	58.68%	26.59%	14.73%	+1.14	+28.8	21
1942-02-01	@ Cork United	L 0-5	48.6	1751	1843	14.73%	26.59%	58.68%	-1.14	-28.8	14
1942-02-01	Drumconda	W 2-1	55.1	1742	1582	63.72%	25.79%	10.49%	+1.63	+4.5	17
1942-02-01	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 1-2	55.1	1582	1742	10.49%	25.79%	63.72%	-1.63	-4.6	10
1942-02-07	Shelbourne	L 0-1	65.3	1722	1688	53.24%	27.08%	19.69%	+0.71	-18.2	14
1942-02-07	@ St. James Gate	W 1-0	65.3	1688	1722	19.69%	27.08%	53.24%	-0.71	+18.2	14
1942-02-14	Shelbourne	L 3-4	69.6	1563	1706	30.68%	27.23%	42.08%	-0.59	-10.2	9
1942-02-14	@ Bohemian	W 4-3	69.6	1706	1563	42.08%	27.23%	30.68%	+0.59	+10.2	16
1942-02-15	Shamrock Rovers	L 1-3	58.3	1566	1746	26.12%	27.01%	46.87%	-0.86	-16.9	13
1942-02-15	@ Brideville	W 3-1	58.3	1746	1566	46.87%	27.01%	26.12%	+0.86	+16.9	19
1942-02-15	Cork United	D 2-2	73.5	1643	1872	20.79%	26.58%	52.63%	-1.23	+1.8	13
1942-02-15	@ Dundalk	D 2-2	73.5	1872	1643	52.63%	26.58%	20.79%	+1.23	-1.8	22
1942-02-15	St. James Gate	W 2-1	63.8	1578	1704	32.96%	27.31%	39.73%	-0.47	+13.4	12
1942-02-15	@ Drumconda	L 1-2	63.8	1704	1578	39.73%	27.31%	32.96%	+0.47	-13.4	14
1942-02-15	Bray Unknowns	W 6-0	36.2	1547	1401	62.78%	25.97%	11.25%	+1.53	+26.9	11
1942-02-15	@ Limerick	L 0-6	36.2	1401	1547	11.25%	25.97%	62.78%	-1.53	-26.9	1
1942-02-21	Dundalk	W 3-1	55.8	1716	1645	56.83%	26.79%	16.38%	+0.99	+11.7	18
1942-02-21	@ Shelbourne	L 1-3	55.8	1645	1716	16.38%	26.79%	56.83%	-0.99	-11.7	13
1942-02-22	Cork United	L 0-2	45.2	1374	1870	5.60%	22.19%	72.21%	-3.19	-4.7	1
1942-02-22	@ Bray Unknowns	W 2-0	45.2	1870	1374	72.21%	22.19%	5.60%	+3.19	+4.7	24
1942-02-22	Bohemian	L 2-4	67.8	1591	1552	53.67%	27.05%	19.28%	+0.74	-26.8	12
1942-02-22	@ Drumconda	W 4-2	67.8	1552	1591	19.28%	27.05%	53.67%	-0.74	+26.8	11
1942-02-22	Brideville	D 1-1	63.6	1574	1550	52.21%	27.14%	20.65%	+0.64	-2.4	12
1942-02-22	@ Limerick	D 1-1	63.6	1550	1574	20.65%	27.14%	52.21%	-0.64	+2.4	14
1942-02-22	Shamrock Rovers	L 0-1	61.8	1690	1763	40.35%	27.42%	32.23%	-0.08	-14.4	14
1942-02-22	@ St. James Gate	W 1-0	61.8	1763	1690	32.23%	27.42%	40.35%	+0.08	+14.4	21
1942-03-07	St. James Gate	D 2-2	71.1	1579	1676	37.09%	27.39%	35.52%	-0.25	-0.1	12
1942-03-07	@ Bohemian	D 2-2	71.1	1676	1579	35.52%	27.39%	37.09%	+0.25	+0.1	15
1942-03-08	Drumconda	D 2-2	67.8	1552	1564	48.10%	27.32%	24.58%	+0.37	-1.3	15
1942-03-08	@ Brideville	D 2-2	67.8	1564	1552	24.58%	27.32%	48.10%	-0.37	+1.3	13
1942-03-08	Shelbourne	W 3-0	48.5	1875	1728	62.88%	25.95%	11.17%	+1.54	+14.0	26
1942-03-08	@ Cork United	L 0-3	48.5	1728	1875	11.17%	25.95%	62.88%	-1.54	-14.0	18
1942-03-08	Limerick	W 2-0	49.3	1633	1572	55.89%	26.88%	17.24%	+0.91	+14.1	15
1942-03-08	@ Dundalk	L 0-2	49.3	1572	1633	17.24%	26.88%	55.89%	-0.91	-14.1	12
1942-03-08	Bray Unknowns	W 7-1	42.3	1778	1369	75.83%	21.15%	3.01%	+3.46	+5.8	23
1942-03-08	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 1-7	42.3	1369	1778	3.01%	21.15%	75.83%	-3.46	-5.8	1
1942-03-14	Limerick	W 5-0	45.1	1714	1557	63.49%	25.84%	10.68%	+1.61	+21.6	20
1942-03-14	@ Shelbourne	L 0-5	45.1	1557	1714	10.68%	25.84%	63.49%	-1.61	-21.6	12
1942-03-15	Bohemian	D 2-2	61.8	1364	1579	22.18%	26.72%	51.10%	-1.13	+1.6	2
1942-03-15	@ Bray Unknowns	D 2-2	61.8	1579	1364	51.10%	26.72%	22.18%	+1.13	-1.6	13
1942-03-15	Shamrock Rovers	L 2-3	76.4	1889	1783	59.75%	26.45%	13.80%	+1.24	-18.2	26
1942-03-15	@ Cork United	W 3-2	76.4	1783	1889	13.80%	26.45%	59.75%	-1.24	+18.2	25
1942-03-15	Dundalk	L 0-2	56.2	1565	1647	39.19%	27.41%	33.40%	-0.14	-26.5	13
1942-03-15	@ Drumconda	W 2-0	56.2	1647	1565	33.40%	27.41%	39.19%	+0.14	+26.5	17
1942-03-15	Brideville	D 4-4	78.6	1676	1551	61.28%	26.23%	12.49%	+1.38	-2.1	16
1942-03-15	@ St. James Gate	D 4-4	78.6	1551	1676	12.49%	26.23%	61.28%	-1.38	+2.1	16
1942-03-21	Cork United	L 0-1	53.8	1578	1871	15.29%	25.82%	58.89%	-1.70	-6.6	13
1942-03-21	@ Bohemian	W 1-0	53.8	1871	1578	58.89%	25.82%	15.29%	+1.70	+6.6	28
1942-03-22	Bray Unknowns	D 2-2	61.3	1553	1365	65.51%	25.39%	9.11%	+1.84	-3.5	17
1942-03-22	@ Brideville	D 2-2	61.3	1365	1553	9.11%	25.39%	65.51%	-1.84	+3.5	3
1942-03-22	St. James Gate	L 2-3	72.3	1673	1674	49.48%	27.27%	23.25%	+0.46	-15.3	17
1942-03-22	@ Dundalk	W 3-2	72.3	1674	1673	23.25%	27.27%	49.48%	-0.46	+15.2	18
1942-03-22	Drumconda	W 3-0	45.6	1536	1539	49.17%	27.28%	23.55%	+0.44	+26.3	14
1942-03-22	@ Limerick	L 0-3	45.6	1539	1536	23.55%	27.28%	49.17%	-0.44	-26.3	13
1942-03-22	Shelbourne	W 7-1	52.8	1802	1735	56.35%	26.84%	16.81%	+0.95	+31.6	27
1942-03-22	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 1-7	52.8	1735	1802	16.81%	26.84%	56.35%	-0.95	-31.6	20
1942-03-28	Drumconda	D 1-1	66.5	1704	1513	65.73%	25.33%	8.94%	+1.87	-4.7	21
1942-03-28	@ Shelbourne	D 1-1	66.5	1513	1704	8.94%	25.33%	65.73%	-1.87	+4.7	14
1942-03-29	Dundalk	L 1-4	45.8	1369	1658	15.57%	25.87%	58.56%	-1.67	-15.6	3
1942-03-29	@ Bray Unknowns	W 4-1	45.8	1658	1369	58.56%	25.87%	15.57%	+1.67	+15.6	19
1942-03-29	Brideville	W 3-0	45.0	1877	1549	72.66%	22.86%	4.49%	+2.87	+5.6	30
1942-03-29	@ Cork United	L 0-3	45.0	1549	1877	4.49%	22.86%	72.66%	-2.87	-5.6	17
1942-03-29	Bohemian	D 1-1	69.3	1833	1571	69.62%	24.14%	6.24%	+2.39	-5.4	28
1942-03-29	@ Shamrock Rovers	D 1-1	69.3	1571	1833	6.24%	24.14%	69.62%	-2.39	+5.4	14
1942-03-29	Limerick	D 1-1	66.9	1689	1562	61.40%	26.21%	12.39%	+1.39	-4.0	19
1942-03-29	@ St. James Gate	D 1-1	66.9	1562	1689	12.39%	26.21%	61.40%	-1.39	+4.0	15

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1941-12-21	7.97%	Bohemian	1523	2	@ St. James Gate	1737	1
2	1942-03-15	13.80%	Shamrock Rovers	1783	3	@ Cork United	1889	2
3	1941-12-13	16.46%	Drumconda	1522	4	@ Bohemian	1593	0
4	1942-01-25	18.30%	@ Limerick	1521	2	Shamrock Rovers	1777	0
5	1942-02-22	19.28%	Bohemian	1552	4	@ Drumconda	1591	2
6	1942-02-07	19.69%	Shelbourne	1688	1	@ St. James Gate	1722	0
7	1942-01-17	19.76%	Brideville	1534	3	@ Bohemian	1567	2
8	1942-03-22	23.25%	St. James Gate	1674	3	@ Dundalk	1673	2
9	1941-11-30	26.23%	Shamrock Rovers	1647	6	@ Drumconda	1621	0
10	1941-12-28	27.89%	Shelbourne	1630	5	@ Limerick	1590	0
11	1941-12-07	30.24%	Limerick	1545	4	@ Bray Unknowns	1487	2
12	1942-02-22	32.23%	Shamrock Rovers	1763	1	@ St. James Gate	1690	0
13	1941-11-30	32.28%	@ Limerick	1521	3	Bohemian	1652	1
14	1942-01-11	32.38%	@ Drumconda	1568	2	Shelbourne	1698	1
15	1942-02-15	32.96%	@ Drumconda	1578	2	St. James Gate	1704	1
16	1942-03-15	33.40%	Dundalk	1647	2	@ Drumconda	1565	0
17	1941-12-21	34.43%	@ Limerick	1558	4	Dundalk	1673	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1941-11-30	84.47	Shamrock Rovers	6	1647	26.23%	@ Drumconda	0	1621	46.41%	27.36%
2	1941-12-13	69.35	Drumconda	4	1522	16.46%	@ Bohemian	0	1593	56.74%	26.80%
3	1941-12-28	68.93	Shelbourne	5	1630	27.89%	@ Limerick	0	1590	44.72%	27.39%
4	1941-11-23	52.07	St. James Gate	7	1690	40.88%	@ Bray Unknowns	1	1556	31.85%	27.28%
5	1942-01-25	35.48	@ Limerick	2	1521	18.30%	Shamrock Rovers	0	1777	55.40%	26.29%
6	1941-12-06	34.67	@ Shelbourne	4	1622	48.88%	Bohemian	0	1627	23.83%	27.29%
7	1941-12-21	31.86	@ Limerick	4	1558	34.43%	Dundalk	1	1673	38.23%	27.35%
8	1942-03-22	31.58	@ Shamrock Rovers	7	1802	56.35%	Shelbourne	1	1735	16.81%	26.84%
9	1942-02-01	28.81	@ Cork United	5	1843	58.68%	St. James Gate	0	1751	14.73%	26.59%
10	1942-01-11	28.78	Cork United	6	1814	54.99%	@ Brideville	1	1562	18.67%	26.34%
11	1941-12-28	27.57	St. James Gate	4	1715	41.29%	@ Brideville	1	1578	31.45%	27.26%
12	1942-02-15	26.92	@ Limerick	6	1547	62.78%	Bray Unknowns	0	1401	11.25%	25.97%
13	1942-02-22	26.85	Bohemian	4	1552	19.28%	@ Drumconda	2	1591	53.67%	27.05%
14	1942-03-15	26.52	Dundalk	2	1647	33.40%	@ Drumconda	0	1565	39.19%	27.41%
15	1942-03-22	26.30	@ Limerick	3	1536	49.17%	Drumconda	0	1539	23.55%	27.28%
16	1941-11-30	23.50	@ Limerick	3	1521	32.28%	Bohemian	1	1652	40.43%	27.29%
17	1941-11-16	23.32	Cork United	4	1737	47.73%	@ Limerick	1	1550	25.31%	26.96%
18	1941-12-27	23.28	@ Bohemian	4	1545	58.76%	Bray Unknowns	0	1451	14.66%	26.58%
19	1941-12-07	21.84	Limerick	4	1545	30.24%	@ Bray Unknowns	2	1487	42.35%	27.42%
20	1942-03-14	21.62	@ Shelbourne	5	1714	63.49%	Limerick	0	1557	10.68%	25.84%
21	1941-12-21	21.55	Bohemian	2	1523	7.97%	@ St. James Gate	1	1737	67.05%	24.98%
22	1941-11-23	20.83	@ Cork United	4	1760	60.78%	Drumconda	0	1642	12.92%	26.31%
23	1941-12-28	19.64	@ Dundalk	6	1642	54.98%	Drumconda	2	1590	18.07%	26.95%
24	1941-11-30	18.61	@ Dundalk	4	1648	54.07%	Brideville	1	1605	18.91%	27.02%
25	1941-12-07	18.48	@ Shamrock Rovers	4	1732	62.71%	Brideville	0	1586	11.30%	25.98%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1941-12-28	81.1	@ Shamrock Rovers	4	1774	45.18%	Cork United	4	1811	27.43%	27.39%
2	1942-01-25	80.9	@ Drumconda	4	1581	17.58%	Cork United	4	1845	56.23%	26.19%
3	1941-11-15	79.3	@ Shelbourne	4	1602	38.32%	St. James Gate	4	1690	34.27%	27.41%
4	1942-03-15	78.6	@ St. James Gate	4	1676	61.28%	Brideville	4	1551	12.49%	26.23%
5	1942-03-15	76.4	Shamrock Rovers	3	1783	13.80%	@ Cork United	2	1889	59.75%	26.45%
6	1942-01-25	75.1	@ Dundalk	3	1658	59.83%	Bohemian	3	1551	13.72%	26.44%
7	1942-02-15	73.5	@ Dundalk	2	1643	20.79%	Cork United	2	1872	52.63%	26.58%
8	1942-01-03	73.1	@ Shelbourne	2	1699	40.09%	Shamrock Rovers	2	1774	32.50%	27.42%
9	1942-03-22	72.3	St. James Gate	3	1674	23.25%	@ Dundalk	2	1673	49.48%	27.27%
10	1942-03-07	71.1	@ Bohemian	2	1579	37.09%	St. James Gate	2	1676	35.52%	27.39%
11	1941-12-21	71.0	Bohemian	2	1523	7.97%	@ St. James Gate	1	1737	67.05%	24.98%
12	1942-02-14	69.6	Shelbourne	4	1706	42.08%	@ Bohemian	3	1563	30.68%	27.23%
13	1941-12-21	69.3	@ Drumconda	2	1591	51.19%	Brideville	2	1576	21.62%	27.19%
14	1942-03-29	69.3	@ Shamrock Rovers	1	1833	69.62%	Bohemian	1	1571	6.24%	24.14%
15	1941-11-30	68.8	@ St. James Gate	1	1742	44.84%	Cork United	1	1781	27.77%	27.39%
16	1942-01-17	68.3	Brideville	3	1534	19.76%	@ Bohemian	2	1567	53.16%	27.08%
17	1942-01-15	68.1	@ Shamrock Rovers	5	1772	60.04%	Dundalk	4	1663	13.55%	26.41%
18	1942-01-10	67.9	@ Bohemian	1	1565	22.87%	Shamrock Rovers	1	1774	50.36%	26.78%
19	1942-02-22	67.8	Bohemian	4	1552	19.28%	@ Drumconda	2	1591	53.67%	27.05%
20	1942-03-08	67.8	@ Brideville	2	1552	48.10%	Drumconda	2	1564	24.58%	27.32%
21	1942-01-04	67.1	@ Drumconda	2	1570	54.72%	Limerick	2	1521	18.30%	26.97%
22	1942-03-29	66.9	@ St. James Gate	1	1689	61.40%	Limerick	1	1562	12.39%	26.21%
23	1942-01-24	66.6	@ Shelbourne	1	1685	61.99%	Brideville	1	1550	11.90%	26.11%
24	1942-03-28	66.5	@ Shelbourne	1	1704	65.73%	Drumconda	1	1513	8.94%	25.33%
25	1942-01-04	66.3	@ St. James Gate	4	1743	57.74%	Dundalk	3	1661	15.56%	26.70%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1942-02-15	36.2	@ Limerick	6	1547	62.78%	Bray Unknowns	0	1401	11.25%	25.97%
2	1941-12-27	38.8	@ Bohemian	4	1545	58.76%	Bray Unknowns	0	1451	14.66%	26.58%
3	1941-12-14	42.2	@ Cork United	4	1792	72.62%	Bray Unknowns	0	1465	4.50%	22.88%
4	1942-03-08	42.3	@ Shamrock Rovers	7	1778	75.83%	Bray Unknowns	1	1369	3.01%	21.15%
5	1941-11-29	43.7	@ Shelbourne	3	1604	59.34%	Bray Unknowns	0	1504	14.16%	26.51%
6	1942-01-11	44.5	@ Dundalk	4	1655	68.44%	Bray Unknowns	1	1416	7.01%	24.55%
7	1942-03-29	45.0	@ Cork United	3	1877	72.66%	Brideville	0	1549	4.49%	22.86%
8	1942-03-14	45.1	@ Shelbourne	5	1714	63.49%	Limerick	0	1557	10.68%	25.84%
9	1942-02-22	45.2	Cork United	2	1870	72.21%	@ Bray Unknowns	0	1374	5.60%	22.19%
10	1942-03-22	45.6	@ Limerick	3	1536	49.17%	Drumconda	0	1539	23.55%	27.28%
11	1942-03-29	45.8	Dundalk	4	1658	58.56%	@ Bray Unknowns	1	1369	15.57%	25.87%
12	1941-12-07	46.1	@ Shamrock Rovers	4	1732	62.71%	Brideville	0	1586	11.30%	25.98%
13	1941-11-23	47.4	@ Cork United	4	1760	60.78%	Drumconda	0	1642	12.92%	26.31%
14	1941-12-07	48.2	@ St. James Gate	6	1741	66.54%	Drumconda	1	1536	8.34%	25.12%
15	1942-03-08	48.5	@ Cork United	3	1875	62.88%	Shelbourne	0	1728	11.17%	25.95%
16	1942-02-01	48.6	@ Cork United	5	1843	58.68%	St. James Gate	0	1751	14.73%	26.59%
17	1941-12-06	49.2	@ Shelbourne	4	1622	48.88%	Bohemian	0	1627	23.83%	27.29%
18	1942-03-08	49.3	@ Dundalk	2	1633	55.89%	Limerick	0	1572	17.24%	26.88%
19	1941-12-21	50.8	Shamrock Rovers	1	1768	60.42%	@ Bray Unknowns	0	1457	14.01%	25.57%
20	1942-01-31	51.2	@ Bohemian	1	1553	49.11%	Limerick	0	1557	23.60%	27.28%
21	1942-01-31	51.9	Shelbourne	2	1681	57.03%	@ Bray Unknowns	1	1408	16.88%	26.09%
22	1942-01-11	52.8	Cork United	6	1814	54.99%	@ Brideville	1	1562	18.67%	26.34%
23	1942-03-22	52.8	@ Shamrock Rovers	7	1802	56.35%	Shelbourne	1	1735	16.81%	26.84%
24	1941-11-23	53.3	@ Shamrock Rovers	2	1641	60.46%	Limerick	1	1527	13.18%	26.35%
25	1942-01-04	53.3	Brideville	2	1551	39.27%	@ Bray Unknowns	1	1428	33.41%	27.32%