1942-43 League of Ireland Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Cork United

27 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Drumconda

6.05 points above expected

23 points · 16.95 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Bray Unknowns

6.04 points below expected

3 points · 9.04 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Cork United	18	12	3	3	27	42	14	+28	25.45	+1.55
2	Dundalk	18	11	4	3	26	40	22	+18	20.25	+5.75
3	Drumconda	18	9	5	4	23	47	34	+13	16.95	+6.05
4	Shamrock Rovers	18	8	4	6	20	36	28	+8	21.99	-1.99
5	Shelbourne	18	7	5	6	19	35	28	+7	21.07	-2.07
6	St. James Gate	18	6	6	6	18	31	30	+1	19.40	-1.40
7	Limerick	18	8	1	9	17	41	38	+3	17.39	-0.39
8	Bohemian	18	6	4	8	16	28	34	-6	15.19	+0.81
9	Brideville	18	3	5	10	11	25	39	-14	13.27	-2.27
10	Bray Unknowns	18	1	1	16	3	14	72	-58	9.04	-6.04

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Drumconda	23	16.95	+6.05
2	Dundalk	26	20.25	+5.75
3	Cork United	27	25.45	+1.55
4	Bohemian	16	15.19	+0.81
5	Limerick	17	17.39	-0.39

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Bray Unknowns	3	9.04	-6.04
2	Brideville	11	13.27	-2.27
3	Shelbourne	19	21.07	-2.07
4	Shamrock Rovers	20	21.99	-1.99
5	St. James Gate	18	19.40	-1.40

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Dundalk	4	Jan 17 – Feb 21	1 in 51
2	Bohemian	3	Mar 13 – Apr 3	1 in 27
3	Drumconda	3	Nov 8 – Nov 22	1 in 21
4	Shelbourne	3	Nov 28 – Dec 13	1 in 20
5	Brideville	2	Jan 31 – Feb 21	1 in 16

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Limerick	5	Jan 3 – Jan 31	1 in 79
2	Brideville	6	Nov 15 – Dec 20	1 in 65
3	Bray Unknowns	11	Dec 27 – Mar 28	1 in 50
4	Dundalk	2	Dec 6 – Dec 13	1 in 10
5	Shelbourne	2	Dec 19 – Dec 27	1 in 10

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Drumconda	8	Jan 3 – Mar 14	1 in 288
2	Dundalk	8	Dec 19 – Feb 21	1 in 34
3	Brideville	3	Dec 27 – Jan 10	1 in 9
4	Limerick	4	Dec 6 – Dec 27	1 in 5
5	Bohemian	3	Mar 13 – Apr 3	1 in 5

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Brideville	12	Nov 8 – Jan 24	1 in 49
2	Shamrock Rovers	5	Jan 17 – Mar 6	1 in 22
3	Limerick	6	Dec 27 – Jan 31	1 in 15
4	Shelbourne	5	Feb 21 – Mar 24	1 in 13
5	Bohemian	5	Nov 7 – Dec 6	1 in 10

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Cork United	1873	27	-20	6	7.0	-1.0
Dundalk	1797	26	+25	7	6.2	+0.8
Drumconda	1689	23	+41	7	4.7	+2.3
Shamrock Rovers	1741	20	-5	7	6.6	+0.4
Shelbourne	1712	19	-31	2	4.9	-2.9
St. James Gate	1654	18	-34	3	4.4	-1.4
Limerick	1612	17	+6	6	5.3	+0.7
Bohemian	1611	16	+54	8	5.0	+3.0
Brideville	1527	11	-6	4	4.0	+0.0
Bray Unknowns	1326	3	-31	0	2.0	-2.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	BOH	BU	BRI	CU	DRU	DUN	LIM	SR	SHE	SJG
Bohemian	—	1-1-0 3.80	1-1-0 3.17	1-0-1 1.14	2-0-0 2.24	0-1-1 1.99	1-0-1 2.24	0-1-1 1.67	0-0-2 2.06	0-0-2 2.21
Bray Unknowns	0-1-1 1.77	—	1-0-1 1.82	0-0-2 0.63	0-0-2 1.92	0-0-2 0.99	0-0-2 1.25	0-0-2 0.86	0-0-2 1.05	0-0-2 1.24
Brideville	0-1-1 2.39	1-0-1 3.75	—	0-0-2 1.07	0-1-1 2.35	0-2-0 1.96	0-1-1 1.99	1-0-1 1.42	1-0-1 1.51	0-0-2 1.82
Cork United	1-0-1 4.46	2-0-0 5.01	2-0-0 4.52	—	1-1-0 3.96	1-0-1 3.60	1-0-1 4.08	1-1-0 3.29	1-1-0 3.62	2-0-0 3.88
Drumconda	0-0-2 3.32	2-0-0 3.65	1-1-0 3.22	0-1-1 1.61	—	2-0-0 2.10	2-0-0 2.58	1-0-1 2.17	1-1-0 2.30	0-2-0 2.34
Dundalk	1-1-0 3.58	2-0-0 4.63	0-2-0 3.61	1-0-1 1.96	0-0-2 3.45	—	2-0-0 3.51	2-0-0 2.23	2-0-0 2.75	1-1-0 3.26
Limerick	1-0-1 3.32	2-0-0 4.33	1-1-0 3.57	1-0-1 1.50	0-0-2 2.98	0-0-2 2.05	—	0-0-2 2.19	1-0-1 2.16	2-0-0 2.20
Shamrock Rovers	1-1-0 3.90	2-0-0 4.75	1-0-1 4.16	0-1-1 2.27	1-0-1 3.39	0-0-2 3.33	2-0-0 3.37	—	0-1-1 2.78	1-1-0 3.04
Shelbourne	2-0-0 3.51	2-0-0 4.54	1-0-1 4.06	0-1-1 1.94	0-1-1 3.26	0-0-2 2.82	1-0-1 3.40	1-1-0 2.78	—	0-2-0 2.97
St. James Gate	2-0-0 3.35	2-0-0 4.36	2-0-0 3.74	0-0-2 1.69	0-2-0 3.22	0-1-1 2.29	0-0-2 3.36	0-1-1 2.52	0-2-0 2.59	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.81	+6.6
Allowed	0.85	-4.3
Differential	0.94	+2.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.22%	4.44%	5.56%	3.89%	1.67%	2.78%	20.56%
1	4.44%	13.33%	2.22%	3.89%	3.33%	2.22%	29.44%
2	5.56%	2.22%	4.44%	1.67%	4.44%	1.11%	19.44%
3	3.89%	3.89%	1.67%	1.11%	1.67%	—	12.22%
4	1.67%	3.33%	4.44%	1.67%	—	0.56%	11.67%
5+	2.78%	2.22%	1.11%	—	0.56%	—	6.67%
Total	20.56%	29.44%	19.44%	12.22%	11.67%	6.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.88	1.88	+0.00
SD	1.60	1.60	2.48
CV	0.85	0.85	—
Max	7	7	+7
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%
1	5.56%	22.22%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	44.44%
2	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	44.44%	16.67%	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.56	1.89	-0.33
SD	1.42	1.49	2.30
CV	0.92	0.79	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	22.22%	50.00%
1	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	38.89%
2	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
Total	—	5.56%	16.67%	11.11%	33.33%	33.33%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.78	4.00	-3.22
SD	1.22	1.68	2.10
CV	1.56	0.42	—
Max	5	7	+1
Min	0	1	-7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
1	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	33.33%
2	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	22.22%
3	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	11.11%	27.78%	22.22%	—	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.39	2.17	-0.78
SD	1.29	1.69	1.83
CV	0.93	0.78	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
1	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
2	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
3	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
4	11.11%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	44.44%	44.44%	—	11.11%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.33	0.78	+1.56
SD	1.64	0.94	2.09
CV	0.70	1.21	—
Max	5	3	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
1	—	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
2	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	22.22%
3	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	11.11%	16.67%	—	—	—	27.78%
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	27.78%	33.33%	16.67%	11.11%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.61	1.89	+0.72
SD	1.54	1.18	2.05
CV	0.59	0.63	—
Max	6	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
1	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
2	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	33.33%
3	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
4	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	33.33%	33.33%	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.22	1.22	+1.00
SD	1.35	1.22	1.64
CV	0.61	0.99	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
1	5.56%	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	27.78%
2	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
3	—	11.11%	—	—	11.11%	—	22.22%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	22.22%	16.67%	22.22%	11.11%	22.22%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.28	2.11	+0.17
SD	1.78	1.64	2.79
CV	0.78	0.78	—
Max	7	5	+7
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	16.67%
1	5.56%	22.22%	—	—	5.56%	—	33.33%
2	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
3	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	22.22%	44.44%	16.67%	—	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.00	1.56	+0.44
SD	1.81	1.62	2.53
CV	0.91	1.04	—
Max	7	6	+6
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
1	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
2	11.11%	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	27.78%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	22.22%	27.78%	27.78%	16.67%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.94	1.56	+0.39
SD	1.66	1.20	2.00
CV	0.85	0.77	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
1	5.56%	16.67%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	33.33%
2	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	16.67%	38.89%	16.67%	16.67%	11.11%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.72	1.67	+0.06
SD	1.71	1.28	2.44
CV	0.99	0.77	—
Max	6	4	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Cork United	1873	27	25.45	+1.55	67.0%	19	20	23	26	28	29	32
Dundalk	1797	26	20.25	+5.75	100.0%	12	15	18	20	22	24	26
Shamrock Rovers	1741	20	21.99	-1.99	33.0%	13	16	20	22	25	27	29
Shelbourne	1712	19	21.07	-2.07	32.0%	14	15	19	21	23	26	27
Drumconda	1689	23	16.95	+6.05	97.0%	10	11	15	16	19	23	27
St. James Gate	1654	18	19.40	-1.40	42.0%	12	13	17	19	22	26	28
Limerick	1612	17	17.39	-0.39	54.0%	9	12	15	17	20	23	27
Bohemian	1611	16	15.19	+0.81	66.0%	8	10	13	15	17	21	22
Brideville	1527	11	13.27	-2.27	32.0%	5	8	11	13	15	19	22
Bray Unknowns	1326	3	9.04	-6.04	3.0%	3	4	7	9	11	14	15

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8.5% * Slight Edge: 8.5% to 12.5% * Clear Edge: 12.5% to 19% * Strong Edge: 19% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+21.11%

Strong Edge

50.00%21.11%28.89%

Elo Value

Home Edge

138 Elo

0.007 goals per Elo point

074.47400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.48 goals

Neutral

-2+0.54+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.22 * Runaway: 0.22 and up.

Title-Race Openness

2.5

Top-Heavy

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

60%

Cork United, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.06/gm

Photo Finish

00.160.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.66 * Some Luck: 2.66 to 4 * Lucky: 4 to 5.33 * Wild Swing: 5.33 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.07 * Close: 1.07 to 1.61 * Off: 1.61 to 2.14 * Way Off: 2.14 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

3.53 points

Some Luck

03.338

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.20

01.343

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

100.00%

Dundalk

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

3.00%

Bray Unknowns

050

Season Outliers

Expected

3 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.95 * Strong Separation: 1.95 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 76.5% * Wide Edge: 76.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 87.5% * Clear Edge: 87.5% to 91.5% * Strong Edge: 91.5% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 59% * Frequent: 59% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.

Gini Index

0.20

Lopsided

00.160.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 151.95

1.88

Moderate Separation

11.71.952.22.75

Interquartile Edge

67%

Even

50%68%76.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 95%

96%

Dominant

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

42%

Few

0%45%100%

Blowouts

Expected

30%

Very Frequent

0%32%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Notable Separation: 0.41 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.56 * Strong Carryover: 0.56 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 20.5% * As Expected: 20.5% to 23% * Upset-Prone: 23% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 20% * Shaky Favorites: 20% to 23% * Very Shaky: 23% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.55

Highly Predictable

00.552

Matchup Imbalance

0.47

Lopsided

00.370.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.23

Wilder Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.62

Strong Carryover

00.360.560.691

Upset Rate

Expected

23%

Upset-Prone

0%21%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

21%

Shaky Favorites

0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.33 * Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.

Probability calibration

0.51

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.97

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.093

Well Within Noise

00.1670.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Cork United	60.00%	16.00%	14.00%	8.00%	1.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—
Dundalk	6.00%	16.00%	15.00%	23.00%	18.00%	14.00%	4.00%	2.00%	2.00%	—
Drumconda	3.00%	5.00%	5.00%	13.00%	10.00%	13.00%	24.00%	16.00%	8.00%	3.00%
Shamrock Rovers	15.00%	26.00%	21.00%	14.00%	8.00%	8.00%	6.00%	1.00%	1.00%	—
Shelbourne	8.00%	21.00%	23.00%	15.00%	15.00%	8.00%	6.00%	4.00%	—	—
St. James Gate	6.00%	9.00%	11.00%	15.00%	14.00%	20.00%	12.00%	7.00%	5.00%	1.00%
Limerick	2.00%	6.00%	9.00%	6.00%	18.00%	17.00%	16.00%	17.00%	9.00%	—
Bohemian	—	—	2.00%	4.00%	12.00%	12.00%	18.00%	30.00%	19.00%	3.00%
Brideville	—	1.00%	—	2.00%	4.00%	7.00%	14.00%	17.00%	39.00%	16.00%
Bray Unknowns	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	6.00%	17.00%	77.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level
Bohemian	100%
Bray Unknowns	100%
Brideville	100%
Cork United	100%
Drumconda	100%
Dundalk	100%
Limerick	100%
Shamrock Rovers	100%
Shelbourne	100%
St. James Gate	100%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
1942-11-07	Shamrock Rovers	D 1-1	71.5	1619	1781	32.88%	22.23%	44.89%	-0.64	+0.6	1
1942-11-07	@ Bohemian	D 1-1	71.5	1781	1619	44.89%	22.23%	32.88%	+0.64	-0.7	1
1942-11-08	Drumconda	L 1-4	54.4	1480	1574	42.31%	22.38%	35.31%	-0.14	-25.3	0
1942-11-08	@ Bray Unknowns	W 4-1	54.4	1574	1480	35.31%	22.38%	42.31%	+0.14	+25.3	2
1942-11-08	Dundalk	D 0-0	66.9	1589	1682	42.59%	22.38%	35.03%	-0.13	-0.5	1
1942-11-08	@ Brideville	D 0-0	66.9	1682	1589	35.03%	22.38%	42.59%	+0.13	+0.5	1
1942-11-08	Cork United	W 1-0	64.2	1614	1815	27.94%	22.05%	50.01%	-0.92	+12.6	2
1942-11-08	@ Limerick	L 0-1	64.2	1815	1614	50.01%	22.05%	27.94%	+0.92	-12.6	0
1942-11-08	Shelbourne	D 0-0	68.2	1689	1698	53.16%	22.27%	24.57%	+0.48	-1.8	1
1942-11-08	@ St. James Gate	D 0-0	68.2	1698	1689	24.57%	22.27%	53.16%	-0.48	+1.8	1
1942-11-14	Bray Unknowns	W 2-0	43.9	1700	1454	72.89%	20.11%	7.00%	+2.32	+4.2	3
1942-11-14	@ Shelbourne	L 0-2	43.9	1454	1700	7.00%	20.11%	72.89%	-2.32	-4.2	0
1942-11-15	Brideville	W 2-0	48.1	1803	1589	71.24%	20.51%	8.25%	+2.09	+5.0	2
1942-11-15	@ Cork United	L 0-2	48.1	1589	1803	8.25%	20.51%	71.24%	-2.09	-5.0	1
1942-11-15	Shamrock Rovers	W 2-0	57.4	1682	1780	41.82%	22.38%	35.80%	-0.17	+18.1	3
1942-11-15	@ Dundalk	L 0-2	57.4	1780	1682	35.80%	22.38%	41.82%	+0.17	-18.1	1
1942-11-15	Limerick	W 4-2	61.2	1599	1626	51.06%	22.32%	26.61%	+0.35	+11.1	4
1942-11-15	@ Drumconda	L 2-4	61.2	1626	1599	26.61%	22.32%	51.06%	-0.35	-11.1	2
1942-11-15	Bohemian	W 4-1	52.9	1687	1619	61.01%	21.89%	17.09%	+1.03	+12.0	3
1942-11-15	@ St. James Gate	L 1-4	52.9	1619	1687	17.09%	21.89%	61.01%	-1.03	-12.0	1
1942-11-21	Dundalk	D 1-1	70.6	1607	1700	42.49%	22.38%	35.13%	-0.14	-0.4	2
1942-11-21	@ Bohemian	D 1-1	70.6	1700	1607	35.13%	22.38%	42.49%	+0.14	+0.4	4
1942-11-22	St. James Gate	L 0-5	45.0	1450	1699	22.64%	21.73%	55.63%	-1.27	-29.0	0
1942-11-22	@ Bray Unknowns	W 5-0	45.0	1699	1450	55.63%	21.73%	22.64%	+1.27	+29.0	5
1942-11-22	Drumconda	L 0-3	56.4	1584	1610	51.12%	22.32%	26.56%	+0.35	-35.3	1
1942-11-22	@ Brideville	W 3-0	56.4	1610	1584	26.56%	22.32%	51.12%	-0.35	+35.3	6
1942-11-22	Shelbourne	W 2-0	55.9	1615	1704	43.05%	22.39%	34.57%	-0.11	+17.6	4
1942-11-22	@ Limerick	L 0-2	55.9	1704	1615	34.57%	22.39%	43.05%	+0.11	-17.6	3
1942-11-22	Cork United	L 1-4	64.0	1762	1808	48.79%	22.36%	28.85%	+0.21	-28.6	1
1942-11-22	@ Shamrock Rovers	W 4-1	64.0	1808	1762	28.85%	22.36%	48.79%	-0.21	+28.6	4
1942-11-28	Shelbourne	L 0-5	54.6	1607	1687	44.31%	22.39%	33.30%	-0.04	-50.2	2
1942-11-28	@ Bohemian	W 5-0	54.6	1687	1607	33.30%	22.39%	44.31%	+0.04	+50.2	5
1942-11-29	Bray Unknowns	W 5-0	40.2	1836	1421	79.50%	17.56%	2.94%	+3.55	+4.0	6
1942-11-29	@ Cork United	L 0-5	40.2	1421	1836	2.94%	17.56%	79.50%	-3.55	-4.0	0
1942-11-29	Limerick	W 4-3	66.1	1701	1633	61.00%	21.89%	17.11%	+1.03	+4.5	6
1942-11-29	@ Dundalk	L 3-4	66.1	1633	1701	17.11%	21.89%	61.00%	-1.03	-4.5	4
1942-11-29	St. James Gate	D 1-1	71.3	1646	1728	43.92%	22.39%	33.69%	-0.06	-0.6	7
1942-11-29	@ Drumconda	D 1-1	71.3	1728	1646	33.69%	22.39%	43.92%	+0.06	+0.5	6
1942-11-29	Brideville	W 3-2	59.2	1734	1549	69.61%	20.84%	9.55%	+1.88	+2.7	3
1942-11-29	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 2-3	59.2	1549	1734	9.55%	20.84%	69.61%	-1.88	-2.7	1
1942-12-05	Brideville	W 5-2	53.5	1737	1546	69.96%	20.78%	9.26%	+1.93	+5.9	7
1942-12-05	@ Shelbourne	L 2-5	53.5	1546	1737	9.26%	20.78%	69.96%	-1.93	-5.9	1
1942-12-06	Bohemian	D 1-1	61.5	1417	1557	35.97%	22.30%	41.73%	-0.47	+0.3	1
1942-12-06	@ Bray Unknowns	D 1-1	61.5	1557	1417	41.73%	22.30%	35.97%	+0.47	-0.3	3
1942-12-06	Dundalk	W 1-0	53.1	1840	1705	66.34%	21.36%	12.30%	+1.52	+3.9	8
1942-12-06	@ Cork United	L 0-1	53.1	1705	1840	12.30%	21.36%	66.34%	-1.52	-3.9	6
1942-12-06	Shamrock Rovers	L 0-3	56.6	1645	1736	42.77%	22.38%	34.85%	-0.12	-30.3	7
1942-12-06	@ Drumconda	W 3-0	56.6	1736	1645	34.85%	22.38%	42.77%	+0.12	+30.3	5
1942-12-06	Limerick	L 0-2	64.9	1729	1628	63.77%	21.65%	14.57%	+1.27	-30.1	6
1942-12-06	@ St. James Gate	W 2-0	64.9	1628	1729	14.57%	21.65%	63.77%	-1.27	+30.1	6
1942-12-12	Cork United	W 1-0	66.7	1556	1844	18.97%	21.41%	59.62%	-1.55	+14.8	5
1942-12-12	@ Bohemian	L 0-1	66.7	1844	1556	59.62%	21.41%	18.97%	+1.55	-14.8	8
1942-12-13	St. James Gate	L 0-1	57.2	1540	1699	33.35%	22.24%	44.40%	-0.61	-9.1	1
1942-12-13	@ Brideville	W 1-0	57.2	1699	1540	44.40%	22.24%	33.35%	+0.61	+9.1	8
1942-12-13	Drumconda	L 2-4	73.3	1702	1615	62.61%	21.76%	15.62%	+1.17	-22.9	6
1942-12-13	@ Dundalk	W 4-2	73.3	1615	1702	15.62%	21.76%	62.61%	-1.17	+22.9	9
1942-12-13	Bray Unknowns	W 7-0	38.7	1658	1418	72.65%	20.17%	7.18%	+2.29	+13.9	8
1942-12-13	@ Limerick	L 0-7	38.7	1418	1658	7.18%	20.17%	72.65%	-2.29	-13.9	1
1942-12-13	Shelbourne	L 3-4	79.2	1767	1743	56.74%	22.14%	21.12%	+0.71	-12.4	5
1942-12-13	@ Shamrock Rovers	W 4-3	79.2	1743	1767	21.12%	22.14%	56.74%	-0.71	+12.4	9
1942-12-19	Dundalk	L 1-2	71.8	1755	1679	61.75%	21.83%	16.41%	+1.10	-14.6	9
1942-12-19	@ Shelbourne	W 2-1	71.8	1679	1755	16.41%	21.83%	61.75%	-1.10	+14.6	8
1942-12-20	Brideville	W 5-4	64.2	1404	1531	37.66%	22.33%	40.01%	-0.38	+9.0	3
1942-12-20	@ Bray Unknowns	L 4-5	64.2	1531	1404	40.01%	22.33%	37.66%	+0.38	-9.0	1
1942-12-20	Cork United	L 1-3	60.0	1638	1829	29.19%	22.10%	48.71%	-0.85	-13.3	9
1942-12-20	@ Drumconda	W 3-1	60.0	1829	1638	48.71%	22.10%	29.19%	+0.85	+13.3	10
1942-12-20	Bohemian	W 3-1	53.3	1672	1571	63.80%	21.65%	14.55%	+1.27	+7.3	10
1942-12-20	@ Limerick	L 1-3	53.3	1571	1672	14.55%	21.65%	63.80%	-1.27	-7.3	5
1942-12-20	Shamrock Rovers	D 1-1	71.8	1708	1754	48.68%	22.36%	28.95%	+0.21	-1.1	9
1942-12-20	@ St. James Gate	D 1-1	71.8	1754	1708	28.95%	22.36%	48.68%	-0.21	+1.1	6
1942-12-27	Drumconda	W 4-2	61.7	1564	1625	46.84%	22.38%	30.78%	+0.10	+12.4	7
1942-12-27	@ Bohemian	L 2-4	61.7	1625	1564	30.78%	22.38%	46.84%	-0.10	-12.5	9
1942-12-27	Limerick	D 2-2	73.5	1522	1680	33.51%	22.25%	44.24%	-0.60	+0.4	2
1942-12-27	@ Brideville	D 2-2	73.5	1680	1522	44.24%	22.25%	33.51%	+0.60	-0.4	11
1942-12-27	Shelbourne	W 3-0	48.7	1842	1741	63.86%	21.64%	14.49%	+1.28	+12.3	12
1942-12-27	@ Cork United	L 0-3	48.7	1741	1842	14.49%	21.64%	63.86%	-1.28	-12.3	9
1942-12-27	St. James Gate	W 4-2	62.9	1693	1707	52.62%	22.29%	25.09%	+0.44	+10.5	10
1942-12-27	@ Dundalk	L 2-4	62.9	1707	1693	25.09%	22.29%	52.62%	-0.44	-10.5	9
1942-12-27	Bray Unknowns	W 7-1	42.3	1755	1413	77.02%	18.72%	4.26%	+3.03	+5.8	8
1942-12-27	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 1-7	42.3	1413	1755	4.26%	18.72%	77.02%	-3.03	-5.8	3
1943-01-03	Dundalk	L 0-5	42.4	1407	1704	18.15%	21.33%	60.52%	-1.61	-23.9	3
1943-01-03	@ Bray Unknowns	W 5-0	42.4	1704	1407	60.52%	21.33%	18.15%	+1.61	+23.9	12
1943-01-03	Bohemian	D 1-1	66.0	1523	1576	47.72%	22.37%	29.91%	+0.15	-1.0	3
1943-01-03	@ Brideville	D 1-1	66.0	1576	1523	29.91%	22.37%	47.72%	-0.15	+1.0	8
1943-01-03	Shamrock Rovers	L 0-2	59.7	1679	1761	44.02%	22.39%	33.59%	-0.05	-21.3	11
1943-01-03	@ Limerick	W 2-0	59.7	1761	1679	33.59%	22.39%	44.02%	+0.05	+21.3	10
1943-01-03	Drumconda	D 1-1	71.2	1728	1612	64.98%	21.52%	13.49%	+1.38	-3.1	10
1943-01-03	@ Shelbourne	D 1-1	71.2	1612	1728	13.49%	21.52%	64.98%	-1.38	+3.1	10
1943-01-03	Cork United	L 0-3	54.5	1696	1855	33.41%	22.24%	44.35%	-0.61	-24.9	9
1943-01-03	@ St. James Gate	W 3-0	54.5	1855	1696	44.35%	22.24%	33.41%	+0.61	+24.9	14
1943-01-10	Limerick	W 4-3	64.1	1879	1658	71.67%	20.41%	7.91%	+2.15	+2.2	16
1943-01-10	@ Cork United	L 3-4	64.1	1658	1879	7.91%	20.41%	71.67%	-2.15	-2.2	11
1943-01-10	Brideville	D 2-2	75.0	1728	1522	70.83%	20.60%	8.57%	+2.04	-2.9	13
1943-01-10	@ Dundalk	D 2-2	75.0	1522	1728	8.57%	20.60%	70.83%	-2.04	+2.9	4
1943-01-10	Bray Unknowns	W 4-1	41.2	1615	1383	72.22%	20.28%	7.50%	+2.23	+5.5	12
1943-01-10	@ Drumconda	L 1-4	41.2	1383	1615	7.50%	20.28%	72.22%	-2.23	-5.5	3
1943-01-10	Bohemian	W 1-0	50.9	1782	1577	70.77%	20.61%	8.62%	+2.03	+2.7	12
1943-01-10	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 0-1	50.9	1577	1782	8.62%	20.61%	70.77%	-2.03	-2.8	8
1943-01-13	St. James Gate	D 2-2	76.2	1725	1671	59.69%	21.98%	18.33%	+0.93	-1.8	11
1943-01-13	@ Shelbourne	D 2-2	76.2	1671	1725	18.33%	21.98%	59.69%	-0.93	+1.8	10
1943-01-16	St. James Gate	L 1-2	64.0	1575	1673	41.72%	22.38%	35.90%	-0.18	-10.2	8
1943-01-16	@ Bohemian	W 2-1	64.0	1673	1575	35.90%	22.38%	41.72%	+0.18	+10.2	12
1943-01-17	Shelbourne	L 0-2	44.7	1378	1723	14.35%	20.82%	64.83%	-1.97	-8.2	3
1943-01-17	@ Bray Unknowns	W 2-0	44.7	1723	1378	64.83%	20.82%	14.35%	+1.97	+8.2	13
1943-01-17	Cork United	L 0-2	49.9	1524	1882	13.57%	20.69%	65.74%	-2.05	-7.8	4
1943-01-17	@ Brideville	W 2-0	49.9	1882	1524	65.74%	20.69%	13.57%	+2.05	+7.8	18
1943-01-17	Drumconda	L 0-2	62.3	1656	1621	57.86%	22.09%	20.05%	+0.79	-27.3	11
1943-01-17	@ Limerick	W 2-0	62.3	1621	1656	20.05%	22.09%	57.86%	-0.79	+27.3	14
1943-01-17	Dundalk	L 0-2	64.8	1785	1725	60.31%	21.94%	17.74%	+0.98	-28.4	12
1943-01-17	@ Shamrock Rovers	W 2-0	64.8	1725	1785	17.74%	21.94%	60.31%	-0.98	+28.5	15
1943-01-23	Limerick	W 3-1	54.7	1732	1628	63.98%	21.63%	14.38%	+1.29	+7.3	15
1943-01-23	@ Shelbourne	L 1-3	54.7	1628	1732	14.38%	21.63%	63.98%	-1.29	-7.3	11
1943-01-24	Shamrock Rovers	D 1-1	72.5	1890	1757	66.21%	21.38%	12.42%	+1.50	-3.3	19
1943-01-24	@ Cork United	D 1-1	72.5	1757	1890	12.42%	21.38%	66.21%	-1.50	+3.3	13
1943-01-24	Bohemian	W 1-0	50.7	1753	1564	69.84%	20.80%	9.36%	+1.91	+3.0	17
1943-01-24	@ Dundalk	L 0-1	50.7	1564	1753	9.36%	20.80%	69.84%	-1.91	-3.0	8
1943-01-24	Brideville	D 3-3	77.3	1648	1517	66.11%	21.39%	12.50%	+1.49	-2.0	15
1943-01-24	@ Drumconda	D 3-3	77.3	1517	1648	12.50%	21.39%	66.11%	-1.49	+2.0	5
1943-01-24	Bray Unknowns	W 6-1	39.5	1683	1369	75.92%	19.15%	4.93%	+2.82	+5.7	14
1943-01-24	@ St. James Gate	L 1-6	39.5	1369	1683	4.93%	19.15%	75.92%	-2.82	-5.7	3
1943-01-30	Bohemian	W 4-2	57.0	1739	1561	69.16%	20.93%	9.91%	+1.83	+4.6	17
1943-01-30	@ Shelbourne	L 2-4	57.0	1561	1739	9.91%	20.93%	69.16%	-1.83	-4.6	8
1943-01-31	Cork United	L 0-4	41.5	1364	1886	5.94%	18.39%	75.67%	-3.25	-6.5	3
1943-01-31	@ Bray Unknowns	W 4-0	41.5	1886	1364	75.67%	18.39%	5.94%	+3.25	+6.5	21
1943-01-31	Shamrock Rovers	W 1-0	64.1	1519	1760	23.46%	21.79%	54.75%	-1.21	+13.7	7
1943-01-31	@ Brideville	L 0-1	64.1	1760	1519	54.75%	21.79%	23.46%	+1.21	-13.7	13
1943-01-31	Dundalk	L 1-3	61.8	1621	1756	36.57%	22.32%	41.11%	-0.44	-15.9	11
1943-01-31	@ Limerick	W 3-1	61.8	1756	1621	41.11%	22.32%	36.57%	+0.44	+15.9	19
1943-01-31	Drumconda	D 2-2	75.7	1689	1646	58.68%	22.04%	19.28%	+0.85	-1.7	15
1943-01-31	@ St. James Gate	D 2-2	75.7	1646	1689	19.28%	22.04%	58.68%	-0.85	+1.7	16
1943-02-20	Bray Unknowns	W 3-0	33.9	1557	1357	70.47%	20.68%	8.85%	+1.99	+7.7	10
1943-02-20	@ Bohemian	L 0-3	33.9	1357	1557	8.85%	20.68%	70.47%	-1.99	-7.7	3
1943-02-21	Shelbourne	W 1-0	63.1	1532	1743	26.81%	21.99%	51.20%	-0.99	+12.9	9
1943-02-21	@ Brideville	L 0-1	63.1	1743	1532	51.20%	21.99%	26.81%	+0.99	-12.9	17
1943-02-21	Cork United	W 3-0	56.4	1772	1893	38.60%	22.35%	39.05%	-0.34	+28.1	21
1943-02-21	@ Dundalk	L 0-3	56.4	1893	1772	39.05%	22.35%	38.60%	+0.34	-28.1	21
1943-02-21	St. James Gate	W 3-1	60.0	1605	1687	43.96%	22.39%	33.65%	-0.06	+14.9	13
1943-02-21	@ Limerick	L 1-3	60.0	1687	1605	33.65%	22.39%	43.96%	+0.06	-14.9	15
1943-02-21	Drumconda	L 2-6	68.7	1746	1648	63.60%	21.67%	14.73%	+1.26	-40.2	13
1943-02-21	@ Shamrock Rovers	W 6-2	68.7	1648	1746	14.73%	21.67%	63.60%	-1.26	+40.2	18
1943-03-06	Shamrock Rovers	D 1-1	71.7	1731	1706	56.81%	22.14%	21.05%	+0.72	-2.1	18
1943-03-06	@ Shelbourne	D 1-1	71.7	1706	1731	21.05%	22.14%	56.81%	-0.72	+2.1	14
1943-03-07	Limerick	L 2-4	51.1	1349	1620	20.52%	21.56%	57.92%	-1.42	-8.8	3
1943-03-07	@ Bray Unknowns	W 4-2	51.1	1620	1349	57.92%	21.56%	20.52%	+1.42	+8.8	15
1943-03-07	Bohemian	W 4-0	43.5	1865	1565	75.35%	19.36%	5.30%	+2.72	+6.0	23
1943-03-07	@ Cork United	L 0-4	43.5	1565	1865	5.30%	19.36%	75.35%	-2.72	-6.0	10
1943-03-07	Dundalk	W 3-2	69.8	1688	1800	39.82%	22.36%	37.82%	-0.27	+9.0	20
1943-03-07	@ Drumconda	L 2-3	69.8	1800	1688	37.82%	22.36%	39.82%	+0.27	-9.0	21
1943-03-07	Brideville	W 2-1	54.4	1673	1545	65.81%	21.43%	12.76%	+1.46	+3.8	17
1943-03-07	@ St. James Gate	L 1-2	54.4	1545	1673	12.76%	21.43%	65.81%	-1.46	-3.8	9
1943-03-13	Limerick	W 4-1	55.4	1559	1629	45.57%	22.39%	32.04%	+0.03	+20.3	12
1943-03-13	@ Bohemian	L 1-4	55.4	1629	1559	32.04%	22.39%	45.57%	-0.03	-20.3	15
1943-03-14	Bray Unknowns	W 4-0	31.5	1541	1341	70.54%	20.66%	8.80%	+2.00	+10.0	11
1943-03-14	@ Brideville	L 0-4	31.5	1341	1541	8.80%	20.66%	70.54%	-2.00	-10.0	3
1943-03-14	Drumconda	D 1-1	72.5	1871	1697	68.93%	20.97%	10.10%	+1.80	-3.6	24
1943-03-14	@ Cork United	D 1-1	72.5	1697	1871	10.10%	20.97%	68.93%	-1.80	+3.6	21
1943-03-14	Shelbourne	W 3-2	63.7	1791	1729	60.53%	21.93%	17.55%	+1.00	+4.8	23
1943-03-14	@ Dundalk	L 2-3	63.7	1729	1791	17.55%	21.93%	60.53%	-1.00	-4.8	18
1943-03-14	St. James Gate	W 3-0	49.8	1708	1676	57.55%	22.10%	20.34%	+0.77	+16.6	16
1943-03-14	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 0-3	49.8	1676	1708	20.34%	22.10%	57.55%	-0.77	-16.5	17
1943-03-20	Cork United	D 1-1	72.2	1724	1867	35.44%	22.29%	42.26%	-0.50	+0.4	19
1943-03-20	@ Shelbourne	D 1-1	72.2	1867	1724	42.26%	22.29%	35.44%	+0.50	-0.4	25
1943-03-21	Shamrock Rovers	L 1-2	48.9	1331	1725	11.32%	20.24%	68.44%	-2.32	-3.3	3
1943-03-21	@ Bray Unknowns	W 2-1	48.9	1725	1331	68.44%	20.24%	11.32%	+2.32	+3.3	18
1943-03-21	Bohemian	L 2-4	73.5	1701	1579	65.40%	21.48%	13.12%	+1.42	-23.9	21
1943-03-21	@ Drumconda	W 4-2	73.5	1579	1701	13.12%	21.48%	65.40%	-1.42	+23.9	14
1943-03-21	Brideville	W 5-1	48.7	1609	1551	60.01%	21.96%	18.03%	+0.95	+16.2	17
1943-03-21	@ Limerick	L 1-5	48.7	1551	1609	18.03%	21.96%	60.01%	-0.95	-16.2	11
1943-03-21	Dundalk	D 1-1	71.8	1660	1796	36.41%	22.31%	41.28%	-0.45	+0.3	18
1943-03-21	@ St. James Gate	D 1-1	71.8	1796	1660	41.28%	22.31%	36.41%	+0.45	-0.2	24
1943-03-24	Shelbourne	W 4-2	64.2	1677	1724	48.53%	22.36%	29.10%	+0.20	+11.9	23
1943-03-24	@ Drumconda	L 2-4	64.2	1724	1677	29.10%	22.36%	48.53%	-0.20	-11.9	19
1943-03-27	Limerick	W 5-1	50.8	1728	1625	63.97%	21.63%	14.39%	+1.29	+13.3	20
1943-03-27	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 1-5	50.8	1625	1728	14.39%	21.63%	63.97%	-1.29	-13.3	17
1943-03-28	St. James Gate	W 4-1	51.3	1867	1660	70.86%	20.59%	8.54%	+2.04	+6.3	27
1943-03-28	@ Cork United	L 1-4	51.3	1660	1867	8.54%	20.59%	70.86%	-2.04	-6.3	18
1943-03-28	Bray Unknowns	W 3-1	45.2	1796	1327	81.12%	16.66%	2.23%	+3.94	+1.1	26
1943-03-28	@ Dundalk	L 1-3	45.2	1327	1796	2.23%	16.66%	81.12%	-3.94	-1.1	3
1943-04-03	Brideville	W 3-1	51.7	1603	1535	60.96%	21.89%	17.14%	+1.03	+8.5	16
1943-04-03	@ Bohemian	L 1-3	51.7	1535	1603	17.14%	21.89%	60.96%	-1.03	-8.5	11

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1943-03-21	13.12%	Bohemian	1579	4	@ Drumconda	1701	2
2	1942-12-06	14.57%	Limerick	1628	2	@ St. James Gate	1729	0
3	1943-02-21	14.73%	Drumconda	1648	6	@ Shamrock Rovers	1746	2
4	1942-12-13	15.62%	Drumconda	1615	4	@ Dundalk	1702	2
5	1942-12-19	16.41%	Dundalk	1679	2	@ Shelbourne	1755	1
6	1943-01-17	17.74%	Dundalk	1725	2	@ Shamrock Rovers	1785	0
7	1942-12-12	18.97%	@ Bohemian	1556	1	Cork United	1844	0
8	1943-01-17	20.05%	Drumconda	1621	2	@ Limerick	1656	0
9	1942-12-13	21.12%	Shelbourne	1743	4	@ Shamrock Rovers	1767	3
10	1943-01-31	23.46%	@ Brideville	1519	1	Shamrock Rovers	1760	0
11	1942-11-22	26.56%	Drumconda	1610	3	@ Brideville	1584	0
12	1943-02-21	26.81%	@ Brideville	1532	1	Shelbourne	1743	0
13	1942-11-08	27.94%	@ Limerick	1614	1	Cork United	1815	0
14	1942-11-22	28.85%	Cork United	1808	4	@ Shamrock Rovers	1762	1
15	1942-11-28	33.30%	Shelbourne	1687	5	@ Bohemian	1607	0
16	1943-01-03	33.59%	Shamrock Rovers	1761	2	@ Limerick	1679	0
17	1942-12-06	34.85%	Shamrock Rovers	1736	3	@ Drumconda	1645	0
18	1942-11-08	35.31%	Drumconda	1574	4	@ Bray Unknowns	1480	1
19	1943-01-16	35.90%	St. James Gate	1673	2	@ Bohemian	1575	1
20	1942-12-20	37.66%	@ Bray Unknowns	1404	5	Brideville	1531	4
21	1943-02-21	38.60%	@ Dundalk	1772	3	Cork United	1893	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1942-11-28	50.19	Shelbourne	5	1687	33.30%	@ Bohemian	0	1607	44.31%	22.39%
2	1943-02-21	40.25	Drumconda	6	1648	14.73%	@ Shamrock Rovers	2	1746	63.60%	21.67%
3	1942-11-22	35.31	Drumconda	3	1610	26.56%	@ Brideville	0	1584	51.12%	22.32%
4	1942-12-06	30.26	Shamrock Rovers	3	1736	34.85%	@ Drumconda	0	1645	42.77%	22.38%
5	1942-12-06	30.08	Limerick	2	1628	14.57%	@ St. James Gate	0	1729	63.77%	21.65%
6	1942-11-22	28.97	St. James Gate	5	1699	55.63%	@ Bray Unknowns	0	1450	22.64%	21.73%
7	1942-11-22	28.56	Cork United	4	1808	28.85%	@ Shamrock Rovers	1	1762	48.79%	22.36%
8	1943-01-17	28.45	Dundalk	2	1725	17.74%	@ Shamrock Rovers	0	1785	60.31%	21.94%
9	1943-02-21	28.14	@ Dundalk	3	1772	38.60%	Cork United	0	1893	39.05%	22.35%
10	1943-01-17	27.32	Drumconda	2	1621	20.05%	@ Limerick	0	1656	57.86%	22.09%
11	1942-11-08	25.30	Drumconda	4	1574	35.31%	@ Bray Unknowns	1	1480	42.31%	22.38%
12	1943-01-03	24.86	Cork United	3	1855	44.35%	@ St. James Gate	0	1696	33.41%	22.24%
13	1943-03-21	23.90	Bohemian	4	1579	13.12%	@ Drumconda	2	1701	65.40%	21.48%
14	1943-01-03	23.86	Dundalk	5	1704	60.52%	@ Bray Unknowns	0	1407	18.15%	21.33%
15	1942-12-13	22.87	Drumconda	4	1615	15.62%	@ Dundalk	2	1702	62.61%	21.76%
16	1943-01-03	21.34	Shamrock Rovers	2	1761	33.59%	@ Limerick	0	1679	44.02%	22.39%
17	1943-03-13	20.32	@ Bohemian	4	1559	45.57%	Limerick	1	1629	32.04%	22.39%
18	1942-11-15	18.11	@ Dundalk	2	1682	41.82%	Shamrock Rovers	0	1780	35.80%	22.38%
19	1942-11-22	17.62	@ Limerick	2	1615	43.05%	Shelbourne	0	1704	34.57%	22.39%
20	1943-03-14	16.55	@ Shamrock Rovers	3	1708	57.55%	St. James Gate	0	1676	20.34%	22.10%
21	1943-03-21	16.23	@ Limerick	5	1609	60.01%	Brideville	1	1551	18.03%	21.96%
22	1943-01-31	15.93	Dundalk	3	1756	41.11%	@ Limerick	1	1621	36.57%	22.32%
23	1943-02-21	14.94	@ Limerick	3	1605	43.96%	St. James Gate	1	1687	33.65%	22.39%
24	1942-12-12	14.83	@ Bohemian	1	1556	18.97%	Cork United	0	1844	59.62%	21.41%
25	1942-12-19	14.56	Dundalk	2	1679	16.41%	@ Shelbourne	1	1755	61.75%	21.83%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1942-12-13	79.2	Shelbourne	4	1743	21.12%	@ Shamrock Rovers	3	1767	56.74%	22.14%
2	1943-01-24	77.3	@ Drumconda	3	1648	66.11%	Brideville	3	1517	12.50%	21.39%
3	1943-01-13	76.2	@ Shelbourne	2	1725	59.69%	St. James Gate	2	1671	18.33%	21.98%
4	1943-01-31	75.7	@ St. James Gate	2	1689	58.68%	Drumconda	2	1646	19.28%	22.04%
5	1943-01-10	75.0	@ Dundalk	2	1728	70.83%	Brideville	2	1522	8.57%	20.60%
6	1942-12-27	73.5	@ Brideville	2	1522	33.51%	Limerick	2	1680	44.24%	22.25%
7	1943-03-21	73.5	Bohemian	4	1579	13.12%	@ Drumconda	2	1701	65.40%	21.48%
8	1942-12-13	73.3	Drumconda	4	1615	15.62%	@ Dundalk	2	1702	62.61%	21.76%
9	1943-01-24	72.5	@ Cork United	1	1890	66.21%	Shamrock Rovers	1	1757	12.42%	21.38%
10	1943-03-14	72.5	@ Cork United	1	1871	68.93%	Drumconda	1	1697	10.10%	20.97%
11	1943-03-20	72.2	@ Shelbourne	1	1724	35.44%	Cork United	1	1867	42.26%	22.29%
12	1942-12-19	71.8	Dundalk	2	1679	16.41%	@ Shelbourne	1	1755	61.75%	21.83%
13	1942-12-20	71.8	@ St. James Gate	1	1708	48.68%	Shamrock Rovers	1	1754	28.95%	22.36%
14	1943-03-21	71.8	@ St. James Gate	1	1660	36.41%	Dundalk	1	1796	41.28%	22.31%
15	1943-03-06	71.7	@ Shelbourne	1	1731	56.81%	Shamrock Rovers	1	1706	21.05%	22.14%
16	1942-11-07	71.5	@ Bohemian	1	1619	32.88%	Shamrock Rovers	1	1781	44.89%	22.23%
17	1942-11-29	71.3	@ Drumconda	1	1646	43.92%	St. James Gate	1	1728	33.69%	22.39%
18	1943-01-03	71.2	@ Shelbourne	1	1728	64.98%	Drumconda	1	1612	13.49%	21.52%
19	1942-11-21	70.6	@ Bohemian	1	1607	42.49%	Dundalk	1	1700	35.13%	22.38%
20	1943-03-07	69.8	@ Drumconda	3	1688	39.82%	Dundalk	2	1800	37.82%	22.36%
21	1943-02-21	68.7	Drumconda	6	1648	14.73%	@ Shamrock Rovers	2	1746	63.60%	21.67%
22	1942-11-08	68.2	@ St. James Gate	0	1689	53.16%	Shelbourne	0	1698	24.57%	22.27%
23	1942-11-08	66.9	@ Brideville	0	1589	42.59%	Dundalk	0	1682	35.03%	22.38%
24	1942-12-12	66.7	@ Bohemian	1	1556	18.97%	Cork United	0	1844	59.62%	21.41%
25	1942-11-29	66.1	@ Dundalk	4	1701	61.00%	Limerick	3	1633	17.11%	21.89%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1943-03-14	31.5	@ Brideville	4	1541	70.54%	Bray Unknowns	0	1341	8.80%	20.66%
2	1943-02-20	33.9	@ Bohemian	3	1557	70.47%	Bray Unknowns	0	1357	8.85%	20.68%
3	1942-12-13	38.7	@ Limerick	7	1658	72.65%	Bray Unknowns	0	1418	7.18%	20.17%
4	1943-01-24	39.5	@ St. James Gate	6	1683	75.92%	Bray Unknowns	1	1369	4.93%	19.15%
5	1942-11-29	40.2	@ Cork United	5	1836	79.50%	Bray Unknowns	0	1421	2.94%	17.56%
6	1943-01-10	41.2	@ Drumconda	4	1615	72.22%	Bray Unknowns	1	1383	7.50%	20.28%
7	1943-01-31	41.5	Cork United	4	1886	75.67%	@ Bray Unknowns	0	1364	5.94%	18.39%
8	1942-12-27	42.3	@ Shamrock Rovers	7	1755	77.02%	Bray Unknowns	1	1413	4.26%	18.72%
9	1943-01-03	42.4	Dundalk	5	1704	60.52%	@ Bray Unknowns	0	1407	18.15%	21.33%
10	1943-03-07	43.5	@ Cork United	4	1865	75.35%	Bohemian	0	1565	5.30%	19.36%
11	1942-11-14	43.9	@ Shelbourne	2	1700	72.89%	Bray Unknowns	0	1454	7.00%	20.11%
12	1943-01-17	44.7	Shelbourne	2	1723	64.83%	@ Bray Unknowns	0	1378	14.35%	20.82%
13	1942-11-22	45.0	St. James Gate	5	1699	55.63%	@ Bray Unknowns	0	1450	22.64%	21.73%
14	1943-03-28	45.2	@ Dundalk	3	1796	81.12%	Bray Unknowns	1	1327	2.23%	16.66%
15	1942-11-15	48.1	@ Cork United	2	1803	71.24%	Brideville	0	1589	8.25%	20.51%
16	1942-12-27	48.7	@ Cork United	3	1842	63.86%	Shelbourne	0	1741	14.49%	21.64%
17	1943-03-21	48.7	@ Limerick	5	1609	60.01%	Brideville	1	1551	18.03%	21.96%
18	1943-03-21	48.9	Shamrock Rovers	2	1725	68.44%	@ Bray Unknowns	1	1331	11.32%	20.24%
19	1943-03-14	49.8	@ Shamrock Rovers	3	1708	57.55%	St. James Gate	0	1676	20.34%	22.10%
20	1943-01-17	49.9	Cork United	2	1882	65.74%	@ Brideville	0	1524	13.57%	20.69%
21	1943-01-24	50.7	@ Dundalk	1	1753	69.84%	Bohemian	0	1564	9.36%	20.80%
22	1943-03-27	50.8	@ Shamrock Rovers	5	1728	63.97%	Limerick	1	1625	14.39%	21.63%
23	1943-01-10	50.9	@ Shamrock Rovers	1	1782	70.77%	Bohemian	0	1577	8.62%	20.61%
24	1943-03-07	51.1	Limerick	4	1620	57.92%	@ Bray Unknowns	2	1349	20.52%	21.56%
25	1943-03-28	51.3	@ Cork United	4	1867	70.86%	St. James Gate	1	1660	8.54%	20.59%