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1962-63 League of Ireland Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Dundalk

24 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Drumconda

5.58 points above expected

23 points · 17.42 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Bohemian

4.66 points below expected

8 points · 12.66 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Dundalk 18 9 6 3 24 39 23 +16 19.68 +4.32
2 Waterford 18 10 3 5 23 50 37 +13 18.37 +4.63
3 Drumconda 18 10 3 5 23 33 27 +6 17.42 +5.58
4 Cork Celtic 18 6 9 3 21 33 22 +11 22.39 -1.39
5 Shamrock Rovers 18 7 5 6 19 36 25 +11 19.99 -0.99
6 Cork Hibernians 18 7 4 7 18 22 25 -3 18.31 -0.31
7 Shelbourne 18 7 4 7 18 29 35 -6 20.63 -2.63
8 Limerick 18 5 3 10 13 22 30 -8 17.02 -4.02
9 St Patrick's Athletic 18 4 5 9 13 23 47 -24 13.53 -0.53
10 Bohemian 18 1 6 11 8 19 35 -16 12.66 -4.66

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Drumconda 23 17.42 +5.58
2 Waterford 23 18.37 +4.63
3 Dundalk 24 19.68 +4.32
4 Cork Hibernians 18 18.31 -0.31
5 St Patrick's Athletic 13 13.53 -0.53

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Bohemian 8 12.66 -4.66
2 Limerick 13 17.02 -4.02
3 Shelbourne 18 20.63 -2.63
4 Cork Celtic 21 22.39 -1.39
5 Shamrock Rovers 19 19.99 -0.99

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Drumconda 5 Dec 16 – Feb 3 1 in 391
2 Shelbourne 5 Feb 3 – Mar 17 1 in 105
3 Dundalk 3 Nov 25 – Dec 9 1 in 25
4 Cork Hibernians 3 Nov 25 – Dec 9 1 in 18
5 Waterford 3 Apr 7 – Apr 15 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Bohemian 9 Dec 16 – Feb 24 1 in 1,120
2 Shelbourne 3 Apr 9 – May 8 1 in 80
3 Shamrock Rovers 3 Dec 2 – Dec 16 1 in 34
4 Cork Hibernians 3 Feb 3 – Feb 24 1 in 25
5 Limerick 3 Feb 10 – Mar 3 1 in 20

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Waterford 6 Dec 9 – Feb 3 1 in 25
2 Drumconda 7 Dec 16 – Feb 24 1 in 23
3 Bohemian 4 Mar 24 – Apr 21 1 in 22
4 Cork Hibernians 7 Nov 25 – Jan 13 1 in 20
5 Shamrock Rovers 8 Feb 27 – Apr 14 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Cork Celtic 7 Nov 25 – Jan 27 1 in 114
2 Bohemian 15 Nov 25 – Mar 24 1 in 54
3 Shelbourne 5 Mar 24 – May 8 1 in 25
4 Limerick 6 Feb 10 – Mar 31 1 in 16
5 St Patrick's Athletic 7 Nov 25 – Jan 27 1 in 12

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Dundalk 1312 24 +11 6 5.6 +0.4
Waterford 1289 23 +18 7 5.8 +1.2
Drumconda 1298 23 +20 5 4.8 +0.2
Cork Celtic 1381 21 +22 7 6.4 +0.6
Shamrock Rovers 1342 19 +31 7 5.6 +1.4
Cork Hibernians 1213 18 -32 3 5.3 -2.3
Shelbourne 1261 18 -65 2 5.9 -3.9
St Patrick's Athletic 1107 13 -13 4 2.8 +1.2
Limerick 1167 13 -42 2 4.3 -2.3
Bohemian 1117 8 +25 5 3.1 +1.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BOH CC CH DRU DUN LIM SR SHE SPA WAT
Bohemian —
0-1-1
1.17
0-0-2
2.02
0-0-2
2.28
0-1-1
1.54
1-0-1
2.02
0-1-1
1.66
0-1-1
1.78
0-1-1
2.66
0-1-1
1.94
Cork Celtic
1-1-0
4.32
 —
1-1-0
3.32
1-0-1
3.52
0-1-1
3.33
1-1-0
3.20
0-2-0
3.03
0-2-0
2.93
1-1-0
4.14
1-0-1
3.35
Cork Hibernians
2-0-0
3.42
0-1-1
2.12
 —
1-0-1
2.91
1-0-1
2.36
0-1-1
3.01
1-0-1
2.39
1-0-1
2.35
0-1-1
3.50
1-1-0
2.59
Drumconda
2-0-0
3.17
1-0-1
1.92
1-0-1
2.53
 —
0-1-1
2.40
1-1-0
2.46
1-0-1
2.36
1-1-0
2.37
2-0-0
3.39
1-0-1
2.68
Dundalk
1-1-0
3.93
1-1-0
2.11
1-0-1
3.08
1-1-0
3.04
 —
2-0-0
2.98
0-1-1
2.67
1-0-1
2.54
1-1-0
3.51
1-1-0
2.83
Limerick
1-0-1
3.42
0-1-1
2.24
1-1-0
2.42
0-1-1
2.98
0-0-2
2.45
 —
2-0-0
2.30
0-0-2
2.52
1-0-1
3.35
0-0-2
2.03
Shamrock Rovers
1-1-0
3.80
0-2-0
2.41
1-0-1
3.05
1-0-1
3.08
1-1-0
2.76
0-0-2
3.14
 —
2-0-0
2.43
1-1-0
3.89
0-0-2
3.11
Shelbourne
1-1-0
3.67
0-2-0
2.50
1-0-1
3.09
0-1-1
3.07
1-0-1
2.90
2-0-0
2.92
0-0-2
3.01
 —
1-0-1
4.04
1-0-1
2.99
St Patrick's Athletic
1-1-0
2.78
0-1-1
1.33
1-1-0
1.94
0-0-2
2.06
0-1-1
1.95
1-0-1
2.10
0-1-1
1.57
1-0-1
1.43
 —
0-0-2
2.39
Waterford
1-1-0
3.52
1-0-1
2.09
0-1-1
2.86
1-0-1
2.75
0-1-1
2.61
2-0-0
3.42
2-0-0
2.33
1-0-1
2.46
2-0-0
3.06
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.67 +4.4
Allowed 0.25 -3.3
Differential 0.76 +3.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%6.67%3.33%2.22%0.56%1.11%19.44%
16.67%7.78%8.89%2.78%1.67%2.22%30.00%
23.33%8.89%7.78%3.89%1.67%1.11%26.67%
32.22%2.78%3.89%5.56%—0.56%15.00%
40.56%1.67%1.67%———3.89%
5+1.11%2.22%1.11%0.56%——5.00%
Total19.44%30.00%26.67%15.00%3.89%5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.70 1.70 +0.00
SD 1.35 1.35 1.89
CV 0.80 0.80 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
1—11.11%27.78%11.11%—5.56%55.56%
25.56%—11.11%———16.67%
3———5.56%——5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%22.22%38.89%22.22%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.94 -0.89
SD 0.80 1.21 1.32
CV 0.76 0.62 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%—————16.67%
15.56%16.67%16.67%———38.89%
2—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
3——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+5.56%5.56%————11.11%
Total27.78%27.78%38.89%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 1.22 +0.61
SD 1.58 0.94 1.61
CV 0.86 0.77 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—27.78%5.56%———33.33%
116.67%11.11%————27.78%
2—16.67%———5.56%22.22%
3——5.56%11.11%——16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%55.56%11.11%11.11%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.39 -0.17
SD 1.11 1.24 1.20
CV 0.91 0.90 —
Max 3 5 +1
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%——5.56%16.67%
111.11%—5.56%5.56%——22.22%
25.56%22.22%5.56%——5.56%38.89%
35.56%——5.56%——11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total33.33%27.78%16.67%11.11%—11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 1.50 +0.33
SD 1.34 1.62 2.33
CV 0.73 1.08 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%————11.11%
1—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
211.11%11.11%22.22%———44.44%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
Total22.22%33.33%38.89%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.17 1.28 +0.89
SD 1.42 0.89 1.64
CV 0.66 0.70 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%16.67%5.56%——33.33%
116.67%—11.11%—5.56%—33.33%
2———11.11%——11.11%
311.11%——11.11%——22.22%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%5.56%27.78%27.78%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.67 -0.44
SD 1.17 1.37 1.76
CV 0.95 0.82 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%————22.22%
1—11.11%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
25.56%—5.56%5.56%5.56%—22.22%
3—11.11%————11.11%
4—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
5+5.56%—5.56%———11.11%
Total22.22%38.89%22.22%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.39 +0.61
SD 1.68 1.14 1.94
CV 0.84 0.82 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%——5.56%5.56%22.22%
111.11%—11.11%———22.22%
2—11.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
3——11.11%5.56%——16.67%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%22.22%33.33%11.11%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.94 -0.33
SD 1.20 1.43 1.91
CV 0.74 0.74 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———11.11%——11.11%
15.56%22.22%——11.11%16.67%55.56%
25.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
3—————5.56%5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%33.33%5.56%16.67%11.11%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 2.61 -1.33
SD 0.75 2.00 2.14
CV 0.59 0.77 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%———5.56%
1——5.56%———5.56%
2—11.11%5.56%11.11%5.56%—33.33%
3—16.67%11.11%11.11%——38.89%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
Total—33.33%33.33%27.78%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.78 2.06 +0.72
SD 1.48 0.94 1.81
CV 0.53 0.46 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 1 -2

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Cork Celtic 1381 21 22.39 -1.39 41.0% 15 16 20 23 25 28 30
Shamrock Rovers 1342 19 19.99 -0.99 46.0% 11 14 17 20 22 27 28
Dundalk 1312 24 19.68 +4.32 92.0% 13 14 17 19 22 25 29
Drumconda 1298 23 17.42 +5.58 99.0% 9 12 15 17 19 23 27
Waterford 1289 23 18.37 +4.63 95.0% 10 12 16 19 20 23 28
Shelbourne 1261 18 20.63 -2.63 30.0% 12 14 18 21 23 26 29
Cork Hibernians 1213 18 18.31 -0.31 46.0% 11 12 16 19 21 23 26
Limerick 1167 13 17.02 -4.02 15.0% 10 11 15 17 19 23 26
Bohemian 1117 8 12.66 -4.66 10.0% 3 7 11 12 15 18 22
St Patrick's Athletic 1107 13 13.53 -0.53 53.0% 5 8 12 13 16 19 22

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8.5% * Slight Edge: 8.5% to 12.5% * Clear Edge: 12.5% to 19% * Strong Edge: 19% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+15.56%
Clear Edge
44.44%26.67%28.89%
Elo Value
Home Edge
173 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
054.49500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.42 goals
Neutral
-2+0.31+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.22 * Runaway: 0.22 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.7
Wide Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
16%
Dundalk, 3rd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.06/gm
Photo Finish
00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.72 * Some Luck: 2.72 to 4.08 * Lucky: 4.08 to 5.44 * Wild Swing: 5.44 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.5 * Close: 1.5 to 2.25 * Off: 2.25 to 3 * Way Off: 3 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.45 points
Some Luck
03.409
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.00
Close
01.874
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
99.00%
Drumconda
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
10.00%
Bohemian
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.95 * Strong Separation: 1.95 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 76.5% * Wide Edge: 76.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 87.5% * Clear Edge: 87.5% to 91.5% * Strong Edge: 91.5% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 59% * Frequent: 59% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.
Gini Index
0.15
Balanced
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 93.98
1.44
Coin-Flip Parity
11.71.952.22.75
Interquartile Edge
68%
Even
50%68%76.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
83%
Even
50%86%100%
Close Games
Expected
66%
Very Frequent
0%57%100%
Blowouts
Expected
19%
Occasional
0%19%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Notable Separation: 0.41 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.56 * Strong Carryover: 0.56 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 20.5% * As Expected: 20.5% to 23% * Upset-Prone: 23% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 20% * Shaky Favorites: 20% to 23% * Very Shaky: 23% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.64
Hard to Predict
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.35
Very Even
00.370.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.08
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.20
Weak Carryover
00.360.560.691
Upset Rate
Expected
28%
Very Upset-Prone
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Very Shaky
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.33 * Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.
Probability calibration
0.84
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.66
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.160
Well Within Noise
00.1670.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Dundalk16.00%16.00%10.00%15.00%11.00%12.00%11.00%7.00%1.00%1.00%
Waterford7.00%8.00%10.00%18.00%16.00%18.00%3.00%10.00%6.00%4.00%
Drumconda2.00%7.00%11.00%8.00%12.00%18.00%19.00%16.00%6.00%1.00%
Cork Celtic36.00%19.00%18.00%11.00%5.00%6.00%2.00%3.00%——
Shamrock Rovers18.00%13.00%11.00%15.00%8.00%13.00%12.00%6.00%4.00%—
Cork Hibernians4.00%4.00%20.00%9.00%17.00%11.00%8.00%11.00%10.00%6.00%
Shelbourne14.00%25.00%10.00%15.00%10.00%9.00%6.00%7.00%4.00%—
Limerick3.00%6.00%8.00%8.00%10.00%6.00%25.00%11.00%18.00%5.00%
St Patrick's Athletic—1.00%1.00%1.00%7.00%3.00%8.00%16.00%22.00%41.00%
Bohemian—1.00%1.00%—4.00%4.00%6.00%13.00%29.00%42.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Bohemian 100%
Cork Celtic 100%
Cork Hibernians 100%
Drumconda 100%
Dundalk 100%
Limerick 100%
Shamrock Rovers 100%
Shelbourne 100%
St Patrick's Athletic 100%
Waterford 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1962-11-25 Bohemian W 2-141.1 1230 1192 51.10% 27.92% 20.98%+0.53 +6.8 2
1962-11-25 @ Cork Hibernians L 1-241.1 1192 1230 20.98% 27.92% 51.10%-0.53 -6.8 0
1962-11-25 Cork Celtic W 2-148.1 1225 1354 29.40% 28.05% 42.55%-0.43 +11.6 2
1962-11-25 @ Dundalk L 1-248.1 1354 1225 42.55% 28.05% 29.40%+0.43 -11.6 0
1962-11-25 Drumconda D 3-360.2 1250 1217 50.54% 27.96% 21.50%+0.51 -1.1 1
1962-11-25 @ Limerick D 3-360.2 1217 1250 21.50% 27.96% 50.54%-0.51 +1.1 1
1962-11-25 Shamrock Rovers L 2-452.4 1336 1290 51.95% 27.85% 20.20%+0.58 -21.3 0
1962-11-25 @ Shelbourne W 4-252.4 1290 1336 20.20% 27.85% 51.95%-0.58 +21.3 2
1962-11-25 Waterford L 3-648.1 1193 1199 46.03% 28.19% 25.78%+0.28 -24.3 0
1962-11-25 @ St Patrick's Athletic W 6-348.1 1199 1193 25.78% 28.19% 46.03%-0.28 +24.3 2
1962-11-30 Cork Hibernians L 1-248.3 1218 1237 44.34% 28.24% 27.43%+0.20 -12.0 1
1962-11-30 @ Drumconda W 2-148.3 1237 1218 27.43% 28.24% 44.34%-0.20 +12.0 4
1962-12-02 Shelbourne D 2-255.9 1185 1315 29.45% 28.05% 42.50%-0.43 +0.6 1
1962-12-02 @ Bohemian D 2-255.9 1315 1185 42.50% 28.05% 29.45%+0.43 -0.6 1
1962-12-02 St Patrick's Athletic D 1-151.5 1343 1169 63.14% 26.11% 10.75%+1.32 -3.5 1
1962-12-02 @ Cork Celtic D 1-151.5 1169 1343 10.75% 26.11% 63.14%-1.32 +3.5 1
1962-12-02 Limerick L 0-146.8 1311 1249 53.65% 27.70% 18.65%+0.67 -15.0 2
1962-12-02 @ Shamrock Rovers W 1-046.8 1249 1311 18.65% 27.70% 53.65%-0.67 +15.0 3
1962-12-02 Dundalk L 2-353.4 1223 1236 45.10% 28.22% 26.68%+0.24 -11.5 2
1962-12-02 @ Waterford W 3-253.4 1236 1223 26.68% 28.22% 45.10%-0.24 +11.5 4
1962-12-09 Shamrock Rovers W 3-249.5 1249 1296 40.69% 28.29% 31.02%+0.04 +8.7 6
1962-12-09 @ Cork Hibernians L 2-349.5 1296 1249 31.02% 28.29% 40.69%-0.04 -8.7 2
1962-12-09 Drumconda W 5-238.8 1248 1206 51.49% 27.89% 20.62%+0.56 +14.2 6
1962-12-09 @ Dundalk L 2-538.8 1206 1248 20.62% 27.89% 51.49%-0.56 -14.2 1
1962-12-09 Cork Celtic D 0-047.8 1264 1339 36.78% 28.27% 34.94%-0.12 -0.1 4
1962-12-09 @ Limerick D 0-047.8 1339 1264 34.94% 28.27% 36.78%+0.12 +0.1 2
1962-12-09 Waterford L 2-357.1 1314 1212 57.45% 27.23% 15.32%+0.91 -14.3 1
1962-12-09 @ Shelbourne W 3-257.1 1212 1314 15.32% 27.23% 57.45%-0.91 +14.4 4
1962-12-09 Bohemian D 1-150.6 1172 1186 45.04% 28.22% 26.74%+0.24 -1.1 2
1962-12-09 @ St Patrick's Athletic D 1-150.6 1186 1172 26.74% 28.22% 45.04%-0.24 +1.1 2
1962-12-16 Drumconda L 0-144.2 1187 1192 46.15% 28.18% 25.67%+0.29 -13.1 2
1962-12-16 @ Bohemian W 1-044.2 1192 1187 25.67% 28.18% 46.15%-0.29 +13.1 3
1962-12-16 Cork Hibernians D 1-151.5 1339 1258 55.51% 27.49% 17.00%+0.78 -2.4 3
1962-12-16 @ Cork Celtic D 1-151.5 1258 1339 17.00% 27.49% 55.51%-0.78 +2.5 7
1962-12-16 Limerick W 1-037.1 1300 1264 50.87% 27.93% 21.20%+0.52 +7.3 3
1962-12-16 @ Shelbourne L 0-137.1 1264 1300 21.20% 27.93% 50.87%-0.52 -7.3 4
1962-12-16 Dundalk D 2-255.7 1171 1262 34.60% 28.24% 37.16%-0.21 +0.1 3
1962-12-16 @ St Patrick's Athletic D 2-255.7 1262 1171 37.16% 28.24% 34.60%+0.21 -0.1 7
1962-12-16 Shamrock Rovers W 3-141.9 1226 1287 38.70% 28.29% 33.01%-0.04 +16.6 6
1962-12-16 @ Waterford L 1-341.9 1287 1226 33.01% 28.29% 38.70%+0.04 -16.6 2
1962-12-23 Waterford D 3-360.3 1260 1242 48.82% 28.06% 23.12%+0.42 -1.0 8
1962-12-23 @ Cork Hibernians D 3-360.3 1242 1260 23.12% 28.06% 48.82%-0.42 +1.0 7
1962-12-23 Shelbourne W 2-144.6 1262 1307 40.95% 28.29% 30.76%+0.05 +9.1 9
1962-12-23 @ Dundalk L 1-244.6 1307 1262 30.76% 28.29% 40.95%-0.05 -9.1 3
1962-12-23 Cork Celtic W 2-148.0 1205 1337 29.10% 28.03% 42.87%-0.45 +11.6 5
1962-12-23 @ Drumconda L 1-248.0 1337 1205 42.87% 28.03% 29.10%+0.45 -11.6 3
1962-12-23 St Patrick's Athletic W 3-029.1 1256 1171 55.85% 27.45% 16.70%+0.81 +16.4 6
1962-12-23 @ Limerick L 0-329.1 1171 1256 16.70% 27.45% 55.85%-0.81 -16.4 3
1962-12-23 Bohemian W 3-136.2 1271 1174 56.96% 27.30% 15.74%+0.87 +9.3 4
1962-12-23 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-336.2 1174 1271 15.74% 27.30% 56.96%-0.87 -9.3 2
1963-01-06 Waterford L 1-342.6 1165 1243 36.28% 28.27% 35.45%-0.14 -17.8 2
1963-01-06 @ Bohemian W 3-142.6 1243 1165 35.45% 28.27% 36.28%+0.14 +17.8 9
1963-01-06 Shelbourne D 3-360.9 1325 1298 49.90% 28.00% 22.10%+0.47 -1.1 4
1963-01-06 @ Cork Celtic D 3-360.9 1298 1325 22.10% 28.00% 49.90%-0.47 +1.1 4
1963-01-06 Limerick W 3-032.3 1271 1273 46.50% 28.17% 25.33%+0.30 +22.9 11
1963-01-06 @ Dundalk L 0-332.3 1273 1271 25.33% 28.17% 46.50%-0.30 -22.9 6
1963-01-06 Shamrock Rovers W 2-145.1 1217 1280 38.42% 28.29% 33.29%-0.05 +9.7 7
1963-01-06 @ Drumconda L 1-245.1 1280 1217 33.29% 28.29% 38.42%+0.05 -9.7 4
1963-01-06 Cork Hibernians D 1-150.7 1155 1259 32.72% 28.18% 39.09%-0.29 +0.4 4
1963-01-06 @ St Patrick's Athletic D 1-150.7 1259 1155 39.09% 28.18% 32.72%+0.29 -0.4 9
1963-01-13 Dundalk W 1-039.6 1259 1294 42.31% 28.28% 29.41%+0.11 +9.3 11
1963-01-13 @ Cork Hibernians L 0-139.6 1294 1259 29.41% 28.28% 42.31%-0.11 -9.3 11
1963-01-13 Bohemian W 3-028.6 1250 1147 57.50% 27.22% 15.27%+0.91 +15.2 8
1963-01-13 @ Limerick L 0-328.6 1147 1250 15.27% 27.22% 57.50%-0.91 -15.2 2
1963-01-20 Bohemian W 5-131.1 1284 1132 61.60% 26.47% 11.93%+1.20 +13.2 13
1963-01-20 @ Dundalk L 1-531.1 1132 1284 11.93% 26.47% 61.60%-1.20 -13.2 2
1963-01-20 Cork Hibernians W 1-037.3 1299 1268 50.27% 27.98% 21.75%+0.49 +7.4 6
1963-01-20 @ Shelbourne L 0-137.3 1268 1299 21.75% 27.98% 50.27%-0.49 -7.4 11
1963-01-27 Cork Hibernians L 0-138.6 1118 1261 27.79% 27.95% 44.25%-0.51 -8.9 2
1963-01-27 @ Bohemian W 1-038.6 1261 1118 44.25% 27.95% 27.79%+0.51 +8.9 13
1963-01-27 Dundalk D 2-256.6 1324 1298 49.80% 28.01% 22.20%+0.47 -1.2 5
1963-01-27 @ Cork Celtic D 2-256.6 1298 1324 22.20% 28.01% 49.80%-0.47 +1.2 14
1963-01-27 Limerick W 2-144.1 1226 1265 41.78% 28.28% 29.94%+0.09 +8.9 9
1963-01-27 @ Drumconda L 1-244.1 1265 1226 29.94% 28.28% 41.78%-0.09 -8.9 8
1963-01-27 Shelbourne W 5-033.8 1270 1306 42.19% 28.28% 29.53%+0.11 +41.3 6
1963-01-27 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-533.8 1306 1270 29.53% 28.28% 42.19%-0.11 -41.3 6
1963-01-27 St Patrick's Athletic W 6-131.9 1261 1155 57.75% 27.18% 15.06%+0.93 +20.0 11
1963-01-27 @ Waterford L 1-631.9 1155 1261 15.06% 27.18% 57.75%-0.93 -20.0 4
1963-02-03 Drumconda L 0-145.7 1270 1235 50.73% 27.94% 21.33%+0.51 -14.3 13
1963-02-03 @ Cork Hibernians W 1-045.7 1235 1270 21.33% 27.94% 50.73%-0.51 +14.3 11
1963-02-03 Waterford D 2-256.3 1299 1281 48.82% 28.06% 23.12%+0.42 -1.2 15
1963-02-03 @ Dundalk D 2-256.3 1281 1299 23.12% 28.06% 48.82%-0.42 +1.1 12
1963-02-03 Shamrock Rovers W 1-040.6 1256 1312 39.51% 28.29% 32.19%-0.01 +10.0 10
1963-02-03 @ Limerick L 0-140.6 1312 1256 32.19% 28.29% 39.51%+0.01 -10.0 6
1963-02-03 Bohemian W 2-137.8 1265 1109 61.80% 26.43% 11.77%+1.21 +4.1 8
1963-02-03 @ Shelbourne L 1-237.8 1109 1265 11.77% 26.43% 61.80%-1.21 -4.1 2
1963-02-10 St Patrick's Athletic L 1-247.6 1105 1135 42.95% 28.27% 28.79%+0.14 -11.7 2
1963-02-10 @ Bohemian W 2-147.6 1135 1105 28.79% 28.27% 42.95%-0.14 +11.7 6
1963-02-10 Limerick W 3-246.1 1323 1266 53.07% 27.75% 19.18%+0.64 +6.0 7
1963-02-10 @ Cork Celtic L 2-346.1 1266 1323 19.18% 27.75% 53.07%-0.64 -6.0 10
1963-02-10 Dundalk D 0-047.4 1249 1298 40.50% 28.29% 31.21%+0.03 -0.6 12
1963-02-10 @ Drumconda D 0-047.4 1298 1249 31.21% 28.29% 40.50%-0.03 +0.6 16
1963-02-10 Cork Hibernians W 5-239.0 1302 1256 51.98% 27.85% 20.17%+0.58 +14.0 8
1963-02-10 @ Shamrock Rovers L 2-539.0 1256 1302 20.17% 27.85% 51.98%-0.58 -14.0 13
1963-02-10 Shelbourne L 2-354.7 1282 1269 48.30% 28.09% 23.61%+0.39 -12.2 12
1963-02-10 @ Waterford W 3-254.7 1269 1282 23.61% 28.09% 48.30%-0.39 +12.2 10
1963-02-24 Cork Celtic L 0-141.4 1242 1329 35.08% 28.25% 36.67%-0.19 -10.6 13
1963-02-24 @ Cork Hibernians W 1-041.4 1329 1242 36.67% 28.25% 35.08%+0.19 +10.6 9
1963-02-24 St Patrick's Athletic W 4-132.4 1298 1147 61.49% 26.50% 12.02%+1.19 +10.3 18
1963-02-24 @ Dundalk L 1-432.4 1147 1298 12.02% 26.50% 61.49%-1.19 -10.3 6
1963-02-24 Bohemian W 2-137.8 1249 1094 61.77% 26.43% 11.79%+1.21 +4.2 14
1963-02-24 @ Drumconda L 1-237.8 1094 1249 11.79% 26.43% 61.77%-1.21 -4.2 2
1963-02-24 Shelbourne L 1-442.9 1260 1281 44.08% 28.24% 27.67%+0.19 -29.2 10
1963-02-24 @ Limerick W 4-142.9 1281 1260 27.67% 28.24% 44.08%-0.19 +29.2 12
1963-02-24 Waterford L 2-452.1 1316 1270 51.91% 27.85% 20.23%+0.58 -21.3 8
1963-02-24 @ Shamrock Rovers W 4-252.1 1270 1316 20.23% 27.85% 51.91%-0.58 +21.3 14
1963-02-27 St Patrick's Athletic D 1-151.2 1295 1137 61.98% 26.39% 11.64%+1.23 -3.3 9
1963-02-27 @ Shamrock Rovers D 1-151.2 1137 1295 11.64% 26.39% 61.98%-1.23 +3.3 7
1963-03-03 Shamrock Rovers D 0-047.3 1090 1291 21.22% 27.36% 51.42%-0.85 +2.1 3
1963-03-03 @ Bohemian D 0-047.3 1291 1090 51.42% 27.36% 21.22%+0.85 -2.1 10
1963-03-03 Drumconda W 5-029.7 1339 1253 55.99% 27.43% 16.57%+0.81 +26.2 11
1963-03-03 @ Cork Celtic L 0-529.7 1253 1339 16.57% 27.43% 55.99%-0.81 -26.2 14
1963-03-03 Dundalk W 2-143.2 1311 1309 46.94% 28.15% 24.91%+0.32 +7.8 14
1963-03-03 @ Shelbourne L 1-243.2 1309 1311 24.91% 28.15% 46.94%-0.32 -7.8 18
1963-03-03 Limerick W 2-037.8 1140 1231 34.58% 28.24% 37.18%-0.21 +20.9 9
1963-03-03 @ St Patrick's Athletic L 0-237.8 1231 1140 37.18% 28.24% 34.58%+0.21 -20.9 10
1963-03-03 Cork Hibernians L 1-251.0 1291 1231 53.46% 27.72% 18.83%+0.66 -14.1 14
1963-03-03 @ Waterford W 2-151.0 1231 1291 18.83% 27.72% 53.46%-0.66 +14.1 15
1963-03-06 Drumconda L 1-539.5 1161 1227 38.12% 28.29% 33.59%-0.07 -33.7 9
1963-03-06 @ St Patrick's Athletic W 5-139.5 1227 1161 33.59% 28.29% 38.12%+0.07 +33.7 16
1963-03-10 Cork Celtic W 2-147.0 1277 1366 34.93% 28.24% 36.82%-0.20 +10.4 16
1963-03-10 @ Waterford L 1-247.0 1366 1277 36.82% 28.24% 34.93%+0.20 -10.4 11
1963-03-17 Bohemian W 2-135.8 1355 1092 68.85% 24.24% 6.91%+1.84 +2.5 13
1963-03-17 @ Cork Celtic L 1-235.8 1092 1355 6.91% 24.24% 68.85%-1.84 -2.4 3
1963-03-17 Shamrock Rovers L 1-346.7 1301 1289 48.13% 28.10% 23.77%+0.38 -22.3 18
1963-03-17 @ Dundalk W 3-146.7 1289 1301 23.77% 28.10% 48.13%-0.38 +22.3 12
1963-03-17 Waterford W 2-035.6 1260 1288 43.30% 28.26% 28.44%+0.16 +17.2 18
1963-03-17 @ Drumconda L 0-235.6 1288 1260 28.44% 28.26% 43.30%-0.16 -17.2 16
1963-03-17 Cork Hibernians D 3-360.1 1210 1245 42.29% 28.28% 29.43%+0.11 -0.5 11
1963-03-17 @ Limerick D 3-360.1 1245 1210 29.43% 28.28% 42.29%-0.11 +0.5 16
1963-03-17 Shelbourne L 2-346.3 1127 1318 22.30% 27.48% 50.22%-0.79 -6.7 9
1963-03-17 @ St Patrick's Athletic W 3-246.3 1318 1127 50.22% 27.48% 22.30%+0.79 +6.7 16
1963-03-24 St Patrick's Athletic L 0-147.7 1246 1121 59.38% 26.91% 13.70%+1.04 -16.5 16
1963-03-24 @ Cork Hibernians W 1-047.7 1121 1246 13.70% 26.91% 59.38%-1.04 +16.6 11
1963-03-24 Dundalk L 0-238.2 1210 1279 37.65% 28.28% 34.07%-0.08 -21.1 11
1963-03-24 @ Limerick W 2-038.2 1279 1210 34.07% 28.28% 37.65%+0.08 +21.1 20
1963-03-24 Drumconda W 2-033.7 1311 1278 50.63% 27.95% 21.42%+0.51 +13.8 14
1963-03-24 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-233.7 1278 1311 21.42% 27.95% 50.63%-0.51 -13.8 18
1963-03-24 Cork Celtic D 0-048.5 1325 1358 42.60% 28.27% 29.13%+0.13 -0.9 17
1963-03-24 @ Shelbourne D 0-048.5 1358 1325 29.13% 28.27% 42.60%-0.13 +0.9 14
1963-03-24 Bohemian D 3-360.6 1270 1089 63.68% 25.97% 10.35%+1.36 -2.2 17
1963-03-24 @ Waterford D 3-360.6 1089 1270 10.35% 25.97% 63.68%-1.36 +2.2 4
1963-03-27 Dundalk D 1-151.6 1325 1300 49.69% 28.01% 22.30%+0.46 -1.7 15
1963-03-27 @ Shamrock Rovers D 1-151.6 1300 1325 22.30% 28.01% 49.69%-0.46 +1.7 21
1963-03-31 Limerick W 2-037.9 1091 1188 33.71% 28.21% 38.07%-0.25 +21.3 6
1963-03-31 @ Bohemian L 0-237.9 1188 1091 38.07% 28.21% 33.71%+0.25 -21.3 11
1963-03-31 Waterford W 4-241.6 1359 1268 56.35% 27.38% 16.27%+0.84 +8.6 16
1963-03-31 @ Cork Celtic L 2-441.6 1268 1359 16.27% 27.38% 56.35%-0.84 -8.5 17
1963-03-31 Cork Hibernians W 2-032.1 1301 1229 54.65% 27.59% 17.76%+0.73 +11.9 23
1963-03-31 @ Dundalk L 0-232.1 1229 1301 17.76% 27.59% 54.65%-0.73 -11.9 16
1963-03-31 Drumconda D 2-256.4 1324 1264 53.45% 27.72% 18.84%+0.66 -1.6 18
1963-03-31 @ Shelbourne D 2-256.4 1264 1324 18.84% 27.72% 53.45%-0.66 +1.6 19
1963-03-31 Shamrock Rovers L 1-436.0 1137 1324 22.78% 27.54% 49.68%-0.76 -17.6 11
1963-03-31 @ St Patrick's Athletic W 4-136.0 1324 1137 49.68% 27.54% 22.78%+0.76 +17.6 17
1963-04-03 St Patrick's Athletic W 3-027.5 1265 1119 61.07% 26.59% 12.35%+1.16 +12.6 21
1963-04-03 @ Drumconda L 0-327.5 1119 1265 12.35% 26.59% 61.07%-1.16 -12.6 11
1963-04-04 Dundalk D 2-255.9 1113 1313 21.32% 27.37% 51.31%-0.84 +1.4 7
1963-04-04 @ Bohemian D 2-255.9 1313 1113 51.31% 27.37% 21.32%+0.84 -1.4 24
1963-04-06 Cork Celtic L 1-532.5 1107 1367 16.07% 26.50% 57.43%-1.19 -17.0 11
1963-04-06 @ St Patrick's Athletic W 5-132.5 1367 1107 57.43% 26.50% 16.07%+1.19 +17.0 18
1963-04-07 Drumconda W 3-140.3 1260 1278 44.46% 28.24% 27.30%+0.21 +14.5 19
1963-04-07 @ Waterford L 1-340.3 1278 1260 27.30% 28.24% 44.46%-0.21 -14.4 21
1963-04-09 St Patrick's Athletic L 1-254.0 1323 1090 67.02% 24.94% 8.04%+1.66 -17.5 18
1963-04-09 @ Shelbourne W 2-154.0 1090 1323 8.04% 24.94% 67.02%-1.66 +17.5 13
1963-04-10 Limerick L 0-145.9 1217 1167 52.36% 27.82% 19.83%+0.60 -14.7 16
1963-04-10 @ Cork Hibernians W 1-045.9 1167 1217 19.83% 27.82% 52.36%-0.60 +14.7 13
1963-04-10 Cork Celtic D 0-049.0 1341 1384 41.24% 28.29% 30.47%+0.07 -0.7 18
1963-04-10 @ Shamrock Rovers D 0-049.0 1384 1341 30.47% 28.29% 41.24%-0.07 +0.7 19
1963-04-14 Shamrock Rovers D 2-257.8 1385 1340 51.77% 27.87% 20.37%+0.57 -1.5 20
1963-04-14 @ Cork Celtic D 2-257.8 1340 1385 20.37% 27.87% 51.77%-0.57 +1.4 19
1963-04-14 Shelbourne W 4-033.3 1263 1305 41.42% 28.29% 30.29%+0.07 +34.2 23
1963-04-14 @ Drumconda L 0-433.3 1305 1263 30.29% 28.29% 41.42%-0.07 -34.2 18
1963-04-14 Waterford L 2-350.2 1182 1274 34.38% 28.23% 37.39%-0.22 -9.4 13
1963-04-14 @ Limerick W 3-250.2 1274 1182 37.39% 28.23% 34.38%+0.22 +9.4 21
1963-04-15 Limerick W 2-139.0 1284 1173 58.20% 27.11% 14.68%+0.96 +5.0 23
1963-04-15 @ Waterford L 1-239.0 1173 1284 14.68% 27.11% 58.20%-0.96 -5.0 13
1963-04-21 Cork Celtic D 1-151.4 1114 1383 15.38% 26.34% 58.28%-1.24 +2.8 8
1963-04-21 @ Bohemian D 1-151.4 1383 1114 58.28% 26.34% 15.38%+1.24 -2.8 21
1963-05-08 Shelbourne W 1-040.7 1202 1271 37.74% 28.29% 33.98%-0.08 +10.4 18
1963-05-08 @ Cork Hibernians L 0-140.7 1271 1202 33.98% 28.29% 37.74%+0.08 -10.4 18

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1963-04-09 8.04% St Patrick's Athletic 1090 2 @ Shelbourne 1323 1
2 1963-03-24 13.70% St Patrick's Athletic 1121 1 @ Cork Hibernians 1246 0
3 1962-12-09 15.32% Waterford 1212 3 @ Shelbourne 1314 2
4 1962-12-02 18.65% Limerick 1249 1 @ Shamrock Rovers 1311 0
5 1963-03-03 18.83% Cork Hibernians 1231 2 @ Waterford 1291 1
6 1963-04-10 19.83% Limerick 1167 1 @ Cork Hibernians 1217 0
7 1962-11-25 20.20% Shamrock Rovers 1290 4 @ Shelbourne 1336 2
8 1963-02-24 20.23% Waterford 1270 4 @ Shamrock Rovers 1316 2
9 1963-02-03 21.33% Drumconda 1235 1 @ Cork Hibernians 1270 0
10 1963-02-10 23.61% Shelbourne 1269 3 @ Waterford 1282 2
11 1963-03-17 23.77% Shamrock Rovers 1289 3 @ Dundalk 1301 1
12 1962-12-16 25.67% Drumconda 1192 1 @ Bohemian 1187 0
13 1962-11-25 25.78% Waterford 1199 6 @ St Patrick's Athletic 1193 3
14 1962-12-02 26.68% Dundalk 1236 3 @ Waterford 1223 2
15 1962-11-30 27.43% Cork Hibernians 1237 2 @ Drumconda 1218 1
16 1963-02-24 27.67% Shelbourne 1281 4 @ Limerick 1260 1
17 1963-02-10 28.79% St Patrick's Athletic 1135 2 @ Bohemian 1105 1
18 1962-12-23 29.10% @ Drumconda 1205 2 Cork Celtic 1337 1
19 1962-11-25 29.40% @ Dundalk 1225 2 Cork Celtic 1354 1
20 1963-03-06 33.59% Drumconda 1227 5 @ St Patrick's Athletic 1161 1
21 1963-03-31 33.71% @ Bohemian 1091 2 Limerick 1188 0
22 1963-03-24 34.07% Dundalk 1279 2 @ Limerick 1210 0
23 1963-03-03 34.58% @ St Patrick's Athletic 1140 2 Limerick 1231 0
24 1963-03-10 34.93% @ Waterford 1277 2 Cork Celtic 1366 1
25 1963-01-06 35.45% Waterford 1243 3 @ Bohemian 1165 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1963-01-27 41.35 @ Shamrock Rovers 5 1270 42.19% Shelbourne 0 1306 29.53% 28.28%
2 1963-04-14 34.18 @ Drumconda 4 1263 41.42% Shelbourne 0 1305 30.29% 28.29%
3 1963-03-06 33.66 Drumconda 5 1227 33.59% @ St Patrick's Athletic 1 1161 38.12% 28.29%
4 1963-02-24 29.23 Shelbourne 4 1281 27.67% @ Limerick 1 1260 44.08% 28.24%
5 1963-03-03 26.20 @ Cork Celtic 5 1339 55.99% Drumconda 0 1253 16.57% 27.43%
6 1962-11-25 24.30 Waterford 6 1199 25.78% @ St Patrick's Athletic 3 1193 46.03% 28.19%
7 1963-01-06 22.89 @ Dundalk 3 1271 46.50% Limerick 0 1273 25.33% 28.17%
8 1963-03-17 22.27 Shamrock Rovers 3 1289 23.77% @ Dundalk 1 1301 48.13% 28.10%
9 1962-11-25 21.32 Shamrock Rovers 4 1290 20.20% @ Shelbourne 2 1336 51.95% 27.85%
10 1963-02-24 21.31 Waterford 4 1270 20.23% @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1316 51.91% 27.85%
11 1963-03-31 21.26 @ Bohemian 2 1091 33.71% Limerick 0 1188 38.07% 28.21%
12 1963-03-24 21.09 Dundalk 2 1279 34.07% @ Limerick 0 1210 37.65% 28.28%
13 1963-03-03 20.89 @ St Patrick's Athletic 2 1140 34.58% Limerick 0 1231 37.18% 28.24%
14 1963-01-27 19.99 @ Waterford 6 1261 57.75% St Patrick's Athletic 1 1155 15.06% 27.18%
15 1963-01-06 17.78 Waterford 3 1243 35.45% @ Bohemian 1 1165 36.28% 28.27%
16 1963-03-31 17.64 Shamrock Rovers 4 1324 49.68% @ St Patrick's Athletic 1 1137 22.78% 27.54%
17 1963-04-09 17.50 St Patrick's Athletic 2 1090 8.04% @ Shelbourne 1 1323 67.02% 24.94%
18 1963-03-17 17.20 @ Drumconda 2 1260 43.30% Waterford 0 1288 28.44% 28.26%
19 1963-04-06 16.97 Cork Celtic 5 1367 57.43% @ St Patrick's Athletic 1 1107 16.07% 26.50%
20 1962-12-16 16.61 @ Waterford 3 1226 38.70% Shamrock Rovers 1 1287 33.01% 28.29%
21 1963-03-24 16.56 St Patrick's Athletic 1 1121 13.70% @ Cork Hibernians 0 1246 59.38% 26.91%
22 1962-12-23 16.38 @ Limerick 3 1256 55.85% St Patrick's Athletic 0 1171 16.70% 27.45%
23 1963-01-13 15.17 @ Limerick 3 1250 57.50% Bohemian 0 1147 15.27% 27.22%
24 1962-12-02 15.04 Limerick 1 1249 18.65% @ Shamrock Rovers 0 1311 53.65% 27.70%
25 1963-04-10 14.71 Limerick 1 1167 19.83% @ Cork Hibernians 0 1217 52.36% 27.82%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1963-01-06 60.9 @ Cork Celtic 3 1325 49.90% Shelbourne 3 1298 22.10% 28.00%
2 1963-03-24 60.6 @ Waterford 3 1270 63.68% Bohemian 3 1089 10.35% 25.97%
3 1962-12-23 60.3 @ Cork Hibernians 3 1260 48.82% Waterford 3 1242 23.12% 28.06%
4 1962-11-25 60.2 @ Limerick 3 1250 50.54% Drumconda 3 1217 21.50% 27.96%
5 1963-03-17 60.1 @ Limerick 3 1210 42.29% Cork Hibernians 3 1245 29.43% 28.28%
6 1963-04-14 57.8 @ Cork Celtic 2 1385 51.77% Shamrock Rovers 2 1340 20.37% 27.87%
7 1962-12-09 57.1 Waterford 3 1212 15.32% @ Shelbourne 2 1314 57.45% 27.23%
8 1963-01-27 56.6 @ Cork Celtic 2 1324 49.80% Dundalk 2 1298 22.20% 28.01%
9 1963-03-31 56.4 @ Shelbourne 2 1324 53.45% Drumconda 2 1264 18.84% 27.72%
10 1963-02-03 56.3 @ Dundalk 2 1299 48.82% Waterford 2 1281 23.12% 28.06%
11 1962-12-02 55.9 @ Bohemian 2 1185 29.45% Shelbourne 2 1315 42.50% 28.05%
12 1963-04-04 55.9 @ Bohemian 2 1113 21.32% Dundalk 2 1313 51.31% 27.37%
13 1962-12-16 55.7 @ St Patrick's Athletic 2 1171 34.60% Dundalk 2 1262 37.16% 28.24%
14 1963-02-10 54.7 Shelbourne 3 1269 23.61% @ Waterford 2 1282 48.30% 28.09%
15 1963-04-09 54.0 St Patrick's Athletic 2 1090 8.04% @ Shelbourne 1 1323 67.02% 24.94%
16 1962-12-02 53.4 Dundalk 3 1236 26.68% @ Waterford 2 1223 45.10% 28.22%
17 1962-11-25 52.4 Shamrock Rovers 4 1290 20.20% @ Shelbourne 2 1336 51.95% 27.85%
18 1963-02-24 52.1 Waterford 4 1270 20.23% @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1316 51.91% 27.85%
19 1963-03-27 51.6 @ Shamrock Rovers 1 1325 49.69% Dundalk 1 1300 22.30% 28.01%
20 1962-12-02 51.5 @ Cork Celtic 1 1343 63.14% St Patrick's Athletic 1 1169 10.75% 26.11%
21 1962-12-16 51.5 @ Cork Celtic 1 1339 55.51% Cork Hibernians 1 1258 17.00% 27.49%
22 1963-04-21 51.4 @ Bohemian 1 1114 15.38% Cork Celtic 1 1383 58.28% 26.34%
23 1963-02-27 51.2 @ Shamrock Rovers 1 1295 61.98% St Patrick's Athletic 1 1137 11.64% 26.39%
24 1963-03-03 51.0 Cork Hibernians 2 1231 18.83% @ Waterford 1 1291 53.46% 27.72%
25 1963-01-06 50.7 @ St Patrick's Athletic 1 1155 32.72% Cork Hibernians 1 1259 39.09% 28.18%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1963-04-03 27.5 @ Drumconda 3 1265 61.07% St Patrick's Athletic 0 1119 12.35% 26.59%
2 1963-01-13 28.6 @ Limerick 3 1250 57.50% Bohemian 0 1147 15.27% 27.22%
3 1962-12-23 29.1 @ Limerick 3 1256 55.85% St Patrick's Athletic 0 1171 16.70% 27.45%
4 1963-03-03 29.7 @ Cork Celtic 5 1339 55.99% Drumconda 0 1253 16.57% 27.43%
5 1963-01-20 31.1 @ Dundalk 5 1284 61.60% Bohemian 1 1132 11.93% 26.47%
6 1963-01-27 31.9 @ Waterford 6 1261 57.75% St Patrick's Athletic 1 1155 15.06% 27.18%
7 1963-03-31 32.1 @ Dundalk 2 1301 54.65% Cork Hibernians 0 1229 17.76% 27.59%
8 1963-01-06 32.3 @ Dundalk 3 1271 46.50% Limerick 0 1273 25.33% 28.17%
9 1963-02-24 32.4 @ Dundalk 4 1298 61.49% St Patrick's Athletic 1 1147 12.02% 26.50%
10 1963-04-06 32.5 Cork Celtic 5 1367 57.43% @ St Patrick's Athletic 1 1107 16.07% 26.50%
11 1963-04-14 33.3 @ Drumconda 4 1263 41.42% Shelbourne 0 1305 30.29% 28.29%
12 1963-03-24 33.7 @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1311 50.63% Drumconda 0 1278 21.42% 27.95%
13 1963-01-27 33.8 @ Shamrock Rovers 5 1270 42.19% Shelbourne 0 1306 29.53% 28.28%
14 1963-03-17 35.6 @ Drumconda 2 1260 43.30% Waterford 0 1288 28.44% 28.26%
15 1963-03-17 35.8 @ Cork Celtic 2 1355 68.85% Bohemian 1 1092 6.91% 24.24%
16 1963-03-31 36.0 Shamrock Rovers 4 1324 49.68% @ St Patrick's Athletic 1 1137 22.78% 27.54%
17 1962-12-23 36.2 @ Shamrock Rovers 3 1271 56.96% Bohemian 1 1174 15.74% 27.30%
18 1962-12-16 37.1 @ Shelbourne 1 1300 50.87% Limerick 0 1264 21.20% 27.93%
19 1963-01-20 37.3 @ Shelbourne 1 1299 50.27% Cork Hibernians 0 1268 21.75% 27.98%
20 1963-02-03 37.8 @ Shelbourne 2 1265 61.80% Bohemian 1 1109 11.77% 26.43%
21 1963-02-24 37.8 @ Drumconda 2 1249 61.77% Bohemian 1 1094 11.79% 26.43%
22 1963-03-03 37.8 @ St Patrick's Athletic 2 1140 34.58% Limerick 0 1231 37.18% 28.24%
23 1963-03-31 37.9 @ Bohemian 2 1091 33.71% Limerick 0 1188 38.07% 28.21%
24 1963-03-24 38.2 Dundalk 2 1279 34.07% @ Limerick 0 1210 37.65% 28.28%
25 1963-01-27 38.6 Cork Hibernians 1 1261 44.25% @ Bohemian 0 1118 27.79% 27.95%