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1964-65 League of Ireland Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Drumconda

32 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Drumconda

7.63 points above expected

32 points · 24.37 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Limerick

8.40 points below expected

12 points · 20.40 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Drumconda 22 14 4 4 32 35 22 +13 24.37 +7.63
2 Shamrock Rovers 22 14 3 5 31 40 22 +18 27.03 +3.97
3 Bohemian 22 10 7 5 27 38 24 +14 20.99 +6.01
4 Cork Hibernians 22 11 5 6 27 41 29 +12 24.93 +2.07
5 Sligo Rovers 22 10 5 7 25 30 31 -1 20.53 +4.47
6 Shelbourne 22 11 2 9 24 38 37 +1 22.79 +1.21
7 St Patrick's Athletic 22 9 3 10 21 37 36 +1 23.32 -2.32
8 Cork Celtic 22 8 3 11 19 33 34 -1 22.16 -3.16
9 Dundalk 22 7 5 10 19 31 37 -6 22.69 -3.69
10 Drogheda United 22 5 5 12 15 19 34 -15 18.44 -3.44
11 Waterford 22 4 4 14 12 25 42 -17 16.35 -4.35
12 Limerick 22 3 6 13 12 29 48 -19 20.40 -8.40

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Drumconda 32 24.37 +7.63
2 Bohemian 27 20.99 +6.01
3 Sligo Rovers 25 20.53 +4.47
4 Shamrock Rovers 31 27.03 +3.97
5 Cork Hibernians 27 24.93 +2.07

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Limerick 12 20.40 -8.40
2 Waterford 12 16.35 -4.35
3 Dundalk 19 22.69 -3.69
4 Drogheda United 15 18.44 -3.44
5 Cork Celtic 19 22.16 -3.16

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dundalk 3 Jan 10 – Jan 24 1 in 101
2 Drumconda 6 Mar 14 – Apr 18 1 in 84
3 St Patrick's Athletic 4 Feb 7 – Mar 14 1 in 44
4 Waterford 2 Mar 28 – Apr 7 1 in 36
5 Sligo Rovers 3 Mar 21 – Mar 28 1 in 30

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Limerick 9 Feb 21 – Apr 18 1 in 3,266
2 Waterford 6 Jan 3 – Feb 21 1 in 56
3 St Patrick's Athletic 4 Dec 20 – Jan 10 1 in 29
4 Dundalk 4 Dec 13 – Jan 3 1 in 18
5 Cork Celtic 3 Feb 7 – Feb 28 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Bohemian 11 Jan 31 – Apr 19 1 in 125
2 Cork Hibernians 6 Dec 20 – Jan 31 1 in 20
3 Drumconda 8 Feb 21 – Apr 18 1 in 15
4 Dundalk 3 Jan 10 – Jan 24 1 in 11
5 Shelbourne 5 Dec 13 – Jan 10 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dundalk 8 Nov 15 – Jan 3 1 in 79
2 St Patrick's Athletic 8 Nov 22 – Jan 10 1 in 60
3 Limerick 9 Feb 21 – Apr 18 1 in 53
4 Waterford 9 Dec 20 – Feb 28 1 in 21
5 Cork Hibernians 5 Mar 14 – Apr 11 1 in 15

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Drumconda 1377 32 +92 10 6.2 +3.8
Shamrock Rovers 1398 31 +28 7 6.1 +0.9
Bohemian 1420 27 +38 8 6.9 +1.1
Cork Hibernians 1315 27 -15 5 5.9 -0.9
Sligo Rovers 1257 25 +76 6 4.1 +1.9
Shelbourne 1252 24 -64 4 5.3 -1.3
St Patrick's Athletic 1248 21 -106 2 5.4 -3.4
Dundalk 1253 19 -45 3 5.3 -2.3
Cork Celtic 1217 19 -55 3 4.4 -1.4
Drogheda United 1142 15 +42 5 3.6 +1.4
Waterford 1068 12 +18 5 4.2 +0.8
Limerick 1004 12 -133 0 4.1 -4.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BOH CC CH DU DRU DUN LIM SR SHE SR SPA WAT
Bohemian —
1-1-0
3.43
1-0-1
1.94
1-1-0
3.69
0-2-0
2.17
1-1-0
2.81
1-1-0
2.64
0-0-2
1.67
1-0-1
2.70
2-0-0
2.58
1-0-1
3.01
1-1-0
2.99
Cork Celtic
0-1-1
2.16
—
1-0-1
2.49
1-0-1
3.31
1-0-1
2.34
0-0-2
2.85
0-1-1
2.89
0-0-2
2.27
1-0-1
2.68
1-1-0
3.11
2-0-0
2.45
1-0-1
3.91
Cork Hibernians
1-0-1
3.64
1-0-1
3.10
—
1-1-0
3.68
0-0-2
3.19
1-1-0
3.09
1-1-0
3.24
1-1-0
2.40
2-0-0
2.83
0-1-1
3.54
1-0-1
2.98
2-0-0
3.77
Drogheda United
0-1-1
1.90
1-0-1
2.27
0-1-1
1.91
—
0-0-2
2.33
1-0-1
2.06
1-0-1
2.48
0-1-1
1.87
1-1-0
1.86
0-0-2
2.62
1-0-1
2.29
0-1-1
3.29
Drumconda
0-2-0
3.41
1-0-1
3.24
2-0-0
2.40
2-0-0
3.26
—
2-0-0
3.09
2-0-0
3.89
1-0-1
2.38
1-0-1
2.82
1-1-0
3.41
1-0-1
2.88
1-1-0
4.00
Dundalk
0-1-1
2.78
2-0-0
2.74
0-1-1
2.49
1-0-1
3.53
0-0-2
2.50
—
2-0-0
3.02
0-1-1
1.98
0-1-1
3.12
1-0-1
2.85
0-1-1
2.83
1-0-1
3.71
Limerick
0-1-1
2.95
1-1-0
2.70
0-1-1
2.35
1-0-1
3.10
0-0-2
1.70
0-0-2
2.58
—
1-0-1
2.22
0-0-2
2.93
0-1-1
2.58
0-1-1
2.11
0-1-1
3.55
Shamrock Rovers
2-0-0
3.92
2-0-0
3.32
0-1-1
3.18
1-1-0
3.72
1-0-1
3.21
1-1-0
3.61
1-0-1
3.37
—
1-0-1
3.47
1-0-1
3.81
2-0-0
3.31
2-0-0
4.40
Shelbourne
1-0-1
2.89
1-0-1
2.91
0-0-2
2.75
0-1-1
3.72
1-0-1
2.76
1-1-0
2.46
2-0-0
2.65
1-0-1
2.12
—
0-0-2
3.28
2-0-0
2.74
2-0-0
3.59
Sligo Rovers
0-0-2
3.00
0-1-1
2.48
1-1-0
2.05
2-0-0
2.97
0-1-1
2.18
1-0-1
2.73
1-1-0
3.01
1-0-1
1.78
2-0-0
2.31
—
0-1-1
2.46
2-0-0
2.99
St Patrick's Athletic
1-0-1
2.58
0-0-2
3.14
1-0-1
2.60
1-0-1
3.30
1-0-1
2.70
1-1-0
2.76
1-1-0
3.47
0-0-2
2.27
0-0-2
2.85
1-1-0
3.12
—
2-0-0
3.43
Waterford
0-1-1
2.60
1-0-1
1.68
0-0-2
1.83
1-1-0
2.30
0-1-1
1.59
1-0-1
1.88
1-1-0
2.04
0-0-2
1.19
0-0-2
2.01
0-0-2
2.60
0-0-2
2.16
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.56 +7.8
Allowed 0.81 -7.8
Differential 0.92 +5.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.03%7.95%7.58%3.41%0.76%0.38%23.11%
17.95%9.09%9.09%3.79%1.89%1.52%33.33%
27.58%9.09%5.30%2.27%—0.76%25.00%
33.41%3.79%2.27%2.27%—0.76%12.50%
40.76%1.89%————2.65%
5+0.38%1.52%0.76%0.76%——3.41%
Total23.11%33.33%25.00%12.50%2.65%3.41%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.50 +0.00
SD 1.29 1.29 1.90
CV 0.86 0.86 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%———18.18%
113.64%9.09%4.55%—4.55%—31.82%
218.18%—13.64%———31.82%
3—4.55%—4.55%——9.09%
4———————
5+4.55%4.55%————9.09%
Total40.91%22.73%27.27%4.55%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 1.09 +0.64
SD 1.52 1.15 2.01
CV 0.88 1.06 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—18.18%9.09%9.09%——36.36%
19.09%—9.09%—4.55%—22.73%
24.55%4.55%13.64%———22.73%
39.09%—————9.09%
4———————
5+——4.55%4.55%——9.09%
Total22.73%22.73%36.36%13.64%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.55 -0.05
SD 1.77 1.14 2.08
CV 1.18 0.74 —
Max 6 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%9.09%———18.18%
19.09%9.09%9.09%———27.27%
29.09%4.55%4.55%———18.18%
34.55%4.55%9.09%9.09%——27.27%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+———4.55%——4.55%
Total27.27%27.27%31.82%13.64%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 1.32 +0.55
SD 1.39 1.04 1.57
CV 0.75 0.79 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%22.73%4.55%—4.55%—36.36%
19.09%18.18%9.09%4.55%4.55%—45.45%
24.55%4.55%———4.55%13.64%
3—4.55%————4.55%
4———————
5+———————
Total18.18%50.00%13.64%4.55%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 1.55 -0.68
SD 0.83 1.50 1.64
CV 0.97 0.97 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%——9.09%——22.73%
14.55%—9.09%———13.64%
213.64%27.27%4.55%———45.45%
34.55%9.09%4.55%———18.18%
4———————
5+———————
Total36.36%36.36%18.18%9.09%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.59 1.00 +0.59
SD 1.05 0.98 1.53
CV 0.66 0.98 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%4.55%4.55%——13.64%
113.64%13.64%18.18%9.09%—4.55%59.09%
24.55%4.55%————9.09%
3———9.09%——9.09%
4—9.09%————9.09%
5+———————
Total18.18%31.82%22.73%22.73%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.68 -0.27
SD 1.14 1.29 1.78
CV 0.81 0.77 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——4.55%———4.55%
14.55%9.09%27.27%13.64%4.55%4.55%63.64%
2—9.09%13.64%4.55%——27.27%
3———4.55%——4.55%
4———————
5+———————
Total4.55%18.18%45.45%22.73%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 2.18 -0.86
SD 0.65 1.10 1.28
CV 0.49 0.50 —
Max 3 5 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%———18.18%
19.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%——27.27%
29.09%18.18%————27.27%
34.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
4—9.09%————9.09%
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total27.27%50.00%18.18%4.55%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 1.00 +0.82
SD 1.40 0.82 1.71
CV 0.77 0.82 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——13.64%4.55%——18.18%
1—9.09%4.55%9.09%—4.55%27.27%
213.64%13.64%—4.55%——31.82%
34.55%4.55%9.09%———18.18%
4———————
5+——4.55%———4.55%
Total18.18%27.27%31.82%18.18%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 1.68 +0.05
SD 1.39 1.25 2.10
CV 0.80 0.74 —
Max 6 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%4.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%36.36%
19.09%9.09%————18.18%
29.09%9.09%9.09%———27.27%
34.55%9.09%————13.64%
4———————
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total27.27%40.91%13.64%9.09%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 1.41 -0.05
SD 1.36 1.50 2.40
CV 1.00 1.07 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—18.18%4.55%———22.73%
19.09%9.09%4.55%—4.55%—27.27%
2—13.64%4.55%4.55%—4.55%27.27%
34.55%————4.55%9.09%
44.55%4.55%————9.09%
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total18.18%50.00%13.64%4.55%4.55%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.64 +0.05
SD 1.43 1.71 2.17
CV 0.85 1.04 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%18.18%4.55%——31.82%
14.55%13.64%9.09%4.55%—4.55%36.36%
24.55%——13.64%——18.18%
34.55%4.55%———4.55%13.64%
4———————
5+———————
Total18.18%22.73%27.27%22.73%—9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.91 -0.77
SD 1.04 1.44 1.69
CV 0.91 0.76 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Bohemian 1420 27 20.99 +6.01 96.0% 11 15 18 21 24 27 30
Shamrock Rovers 1398 31 27.03 +3.97 96.0% 17 22 25 27 29 31 35
Drumconda 1377 32 24.37 +7.63 99.0% 15 19 22 24 26 30 33
Cork Hibernians 1315 27 24.93 +2.07 73.0% 15 19 23 25 28 30 33
Sligo Rovers 1257 25 20.53 +4.47 94.0% 11 13 18 21 23 26 30
Dundalk 1253 19 22.69 -3.69 19.0% 14 16 20 23 25 29 34
Shelbourne 1252 24 22.79 +1.21 69.0% 14 17 20 23 25 30 34
St Patrick's Athletic 1248 21 23.32 -2.32 27.0% 17 18 21 23 25 29 31
Cork Celtic 1217 19 22.16 -3.16 21.0% 13 17 20 22 24 28 32
Drogheda United 1142 15 18.44 -3.44 17.0% 9 12 16 19 21 23 25
Waterford 1068 12 16.35 -4.35 17.0% 7 10 14 16 19 23 26
Limerick 1004 12 20.40 -8.40 0.0% 13 15 18 20 23 27 30

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8.5% * Slight Edge: 8.5% to 12.5% * Clear Edge: 12.5% to 19% * Strong Edge: 19% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+31.82%
Strong Edge
56.06%19.70%24.24%
Elo Value
Home Edge
225 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0114.52600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.65 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.51+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.22 * Runaway: 0.22 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.3
Wide Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
12%
Drumconda, 3rd of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.05/gm
Photo Finish
00.100.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.86 * Some Luck: 2.86 to 4.29 * Lucky: 4.29 to 5.72 * Wild Swing: 5.72 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.89 * Close: 1.89 to 2.84 * Off: 2.84 to 3.78 * Way Off: 3.78 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.71 points
Lucky
03.579
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.17
Close
02.365
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
99.00%
Drumconda
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
0.00%
Limerick
050
Season Outliers
Expected
4 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.95 * Strong Separation: 1.95 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 76.5% * Wide Edge: 76.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 87.5% * Clear Edge: 87.5% to 91.5% * Strong Edge: 91.5% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 59% * Frequent: 59% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.
Gini Index
0.17
Even
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 126.83
1.62
Coin-Flip Parity
11.71.952.22.75
Interquartile Edge
68%
Slight Edge
50%68%76.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
92%
Strong Edge
50%93%100%
Close Games
Expected
58%
Some Drama
0%57%100%
Blowouts
Expected
18%
Occasional
0%19%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Notable Separation: 0.41 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.56 * Strong Carryover: 0.56 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 20.5% * As Expected: 20.5% to 23% * Upset-Prone: 23% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 20% * Shaky Favorites: 20% to 23% * Very Shaky: 23% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.57
Predictable
00.542
Matchup Imbalance
0.51
Lopsided
00.370.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.78
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.06
Weak Carryover
00.360.560.691
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Upset-Prone
0%20%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
21%
Shaky Favorites
0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.
Probability calibration
0.49
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.74
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.092
Well Within Noise
00.1250.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Drumconda12.00%11.00%15.00%19.00%12.00%9.00%7.00%7.00%3.00%4.00%—1.00%
Shamrock Rovers43.00%20.00%13.00%11.00%3.00%6.00%2.00%——1.00%1.00%—
Bohemian4.00%10.00%8.00%4.00%7.00%8.00%10.00%10.00%12.00%8.00%12.00%7.00%
Cork Hibernians14.00%24.00%15.00%13.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%5.00%3.00%4.00%—1.00%
Sligo Rovers3.00%1.00%4.00%10.00%7.00%9.00%13.00%8.00%13.00%12.00%12.00%8.00%
Shelbourne5.00%9.00%12.00%9.00%11.00%13.00%9.00%7.00%10.00%8.00%4.00%3.00%
St Patrick's Athletic6.00%10.00%14.00%10.00%12.00%10.00%11.00%6.00%11.00%3.00%5.00%2.00%
Cork Celtic6.00%4.00%7.00%7.00%21.00%6.00%12.00%16.00%6.00%9.00%5.00%1.00%
Dundalk5.00%10.00%5.00%13.00%6.00%12.00%8.00%15.00%10.00%6.00%5.00%5.00%
Drogheda United———2.00%3.00%12.00%4.00%10.00%12.00%20.00%19.00%18.00%
Waterford1.00%———2.00%3.00%6.00%5.00%6.00%8.00%23.00%46.00%
Limerick1.00%1.00%7.00%2.00%10.00%5.00%10.00%11.00%14.00%17.00%14.00%8.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Bohemian 100%
Cork Celtic 100%
Cork Hibernians 100%
Drogheda United 100%
Drumconda 100%
Dundalk 100%
Limerick 100%
Shamrock Rovers 100%
Shelbourne 100%
Sligo Rovers 100%
St Patrick's Athletic 100%
Waterford 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1964-11-08 Drogheda United W 4-026.9 1262 1209 64.87% 20.60% 14.53%+0.75 +28.5 2
1964-11-08 @ Cork Hibernians L 0-426.9 1209 1262 14.53% 20.60% 64.87%-0.75 -28.5 0
1964-11-08 Cork Celtic W 1-034.8 1307 1277 63.03% 20.67% 16.30%+0.64 +8.8 2
1964-11-08 @ Dundalk L 0-134.8 1277 1307 16.30% 20.67% 63.03%-0.64 -8.8 0
1964-11-08 Shelbourne W 2-140.4 1245 1245 60.35% 20.75% 18.90%+0.51 +9.5 2
1964-11-08 @ Drumconda L 1-240.4 1245 1245 18.90% 20.75% 60.35%-0.51 -9.5 0
1964-11-08 Bohemian W 2-027.8 1342 1166 72.27% 20.03% 7.70%+1.29 +8.3 2
1964-11-08 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-227.8 1166 1342 7.70% 20.03% 72.27%-1.29 -8.3 0
1964-11-08 Limerick D 1-154.7 1184 1279 50.00% 20.88% 29.12%+0.09 -2.1 1
1964-11-08 @ Sligo Rovers D 1-154.7 1279 1184 29.12% 20.88% 50.00%-0.09 +2.1 1
1964-11-08 St Patrick's Athletic L 1-249.2 1165 1270 48.70% 20.89% 30.42%+0.04 -20.8 0
1964-11-08 @ Waterford W 2-149.2 1270 1165 30.42% 20.89% 48.70%-0.04 +20.8 2
1964-11-15 Waterford D 1-154.5 1158 1145 61.54% 20.72% 17.74%+0.57 -4.7 1
1964-11-15 @ Bohemian D 1-154.5 1145 1158 17.74% 20.72% 61.54%-0.57 +4.7 1
1964-11-15 Sligo Rovers W 3-026.6 1268 1182 67.20% 20.48% 12.32%+0.89 +18.8 2
1964-11-15 @ Cork Celtic L 0-326.6 1182 1268 12.32% 20.48% 67.20%-0.89 -18.8 1
1964-11-15 Drumconda L 1-250.3 1180 1254 52.49% 20.87% 26.64%+0.18 -22.3 0
1964-11-15 @ Drogheda United W 2-150.3 1254 1180 26.64% 20.87% 52.49%-0.18 +22.3 4
1964-11-15 Shamrock Rovers W 2-143.3 1281 1350 53.00% 20.87% 26.13%+0.20 +12.5 3
1964-11-15 @ Limerick L 1-243.3 1350 1281 26.13% 20.87% 53.00%-0.20 -12.5 2
1964-11-15 Dundalk D 1-155.0 1235 1316 51.66% 20.88% 27.46%+0.15 -2.5 1
1964-11-15 @ Shelbourne D 1-155.0 1316 1235 27.46% 20.88% 51.66%-0.15 +2.4 3
1964-11-15 Cork Hibernians W 2-140.8 1291 1290 60.39% 20.75% 18.86%+0.51 +9.5 4
1964-11-15 @ St Patrick's Athletic L 1-240.8 1290 1291 18.86% 20.75% 60.39%-0.51 -9.5 2
1964-11-22 Bohemian W 1-032.2 1281 1153 69.80% 20.29% 9.92%+1.08 +5.6 4
1964-11-22 @ Cork Hibernians L 0-132.2 1153 1281 9.92% 20.29% 69.80%-1.08 -5.6 1
1964-11-22 Drogheda United L 1-352.5 1318 1158 71.53% 20.12% 8.35%+1.22 -52.7 3
1964-11-22 @ Dundalk W 3-152.5 1158 1318 8.35% 20.12% 71.53%-1.22 +52.7 2
1964-11-22 St Patrick's Athletic W 1-036.3 1276 1300 57.99% 20.80% 21.21%+0.40 +11.1 6
1964-11-22 @ Drumconda L 0-136.3 1300 1276 21.21% 20.80% 57.99%-0.40 -11.1 4
1964-11-22 Cork Celtic D 2-260.8 1293 1287 60.94% 20.74% 18.32%+0.54 -3.4 4
1964-11-22 @ Limerick D 2-260.8 1287 1293 18.32% 20.74% 60.94%-0.54 +3.4 3
1964-11-22 Waterford W 3-241.8 1338 1149 72.84% 19.96% 7.20%+1.35 +3.7 4
1964-11-22 @ Shamrock Rovers L 2-341.8 1149 1338 7.20% 19.96% 72.84%-1.35 -3.7 1
1964-11-22 Shelbourne W 3-138.9 1163 1233 53.05% 20.87% 26.08%+0.20 +21.6 3
1964-11-22 @ Sligo Rovers L 1-338.9 1233 1163 26.08% 20.87% 53.05%-0.20 -21.6 1
1964-11-29 Drumconda D 0-050.4 1148 1287 44.04% 20.88% 35.08%-0.11 -1.0 2
1964-11-29 @ Bohemian D 0-050.4 1287 1148 35.08% 20.88% 44.04%+0.11 +1.0 7
1964-11-29 Shamrock Rovers L 1-252.0 1290 1342 55.06% 20.85% 24.09%+0.28 -23.3 3
1964-11-29 @ Cork Celtic W 2-152.0 1342 1290 24.09% 20.85% 55.06%-0.28 +23.3 6
1964-11-29 Sligo Rovers L 0-148.1 1211 1185 62.62% 20.68% 16.69%+0.62 -28.1 2
1964-11-29 @ Drogheda United W 1-048.1 1185 1211 16.69% 20.68% 62.62%-0.62 +28.1 5
1964-11-29 Limerick W 2-142.9 1211 1290 51.91% 20.87% 27.22%+0.16 +12.9 3
1964-11-29 @ Shelbourne L 1-242.9 1290 1211 27.22% 20.87% 51.91%-0.16 -12.9 4
1964-11-29 Dundalk D 1-155.1 1289 1266 62.46% 20.69% 16.85%+0.61 -4.9 5
1964-11-29 @ St Patrick's Athletic D 1-155.1 1266 1289 16.85% 20.69% 62.46%-0.61 +4.9 4
1964-11-29 Cork Hibernians L 2-353.0 1146 1287 43.89% 20.88% 35.23%-0.12 -18.0 1
1964-11-29 @ Waterford W 3-253.0 1287 1146 35.23% 20.88% 43.89%+0.12 +18.0 6
1964-12-06 Shelbourne W 2-030.2 1267 1224 64.05% 20.63% 15.32%+0.70 +15.7 5
1964-12-06 @ Cork Celtic L 0-230.2 1224 1267 15.32% 20.63% 64.05%-0.70 -15.7 3
1964-12-06 Bohemian D 3-364.5 1271 1147 69.58% 20.31% 10.11%+1.06 -4.1 5
1964-12-06 @ Dundalk D 3-364.5 1147 1271 10.11% 20.31% 69.58%-1.06 +4.1 3
1964-12-06 Waterford W 2-136.8 1288 1128 71.55% 20.12% 8.34%+1.22 +4.5 9
1964-12-06 @ Drumconda L 1-236.8 1128 1288 8.34% 20.12% 71.55%-1.22 -4.5 1
1964-12-06 Drogheda United W 1-032.9 1277 1182 67.78% 20.44% 11.78%+0.93 +6.6 6
1964-12-06 @ Limerick L 0-132.9 1182 1277 11.78% 20.44% 67.78%-0.93 -6.6 2
1964-12-06 Cork Hibernians D 1-156.0 1365 1305 65.40% 20.57% 14.03%+0.78 -5.6 7
1964-12-06 @ Shamrock Rovers D 1-156.0 1305 1365 14.03% 20.57% 65.40%-0.78 +5.6 7
1964-12-06 St Patrick's Athletic D 1-154.8 1213 1284 52.79% 20.87% 26.34%+0.19 -2.7 6
1964-12-06 @ Sligo Rovers D 1-154.8 1284 1213 26.34% 20.87% 52.79%-0.19 +2.7 6
1964-12-13 Sligo Rovers W 1-036.8 1151 1210 54.16% 20.86% 24.99%+0.24 +12.8 5
1964-12-13 @ Bohemian L 0-136.8 1210 1151 24.99% 20.86% 54.16%-0.24 -12.8 6
1964-12-13 Drumconda L 1-253.8 1310 1293 61.90% 20.71% 17.39%+0.59 -26.1 7
1964-12-13 @ Cork Hibernians W 2-153.8 1293 1310 17.39% 20.71% 61.90%-0.59 +26.1 11
1964-12-13 Cork Celtic W 1-038.6 1176 1283 48.46% 20.89% 30.65%+0.03 +15.1 4
1964-12-13 @ Drogheda United L 0-138.6 1283 1176 30.65% 20.89% 48.46%-0.03 -15.1 5
1964-12-13 Shamrock Rovers W 3-142.6 1208 1359 42.49% 20.87% 36.64%-0.16 +28.5 5
1964-12-13 @ Shelbourne L 1-342.6 1359 1208 36.64% 20.87% 42.49%+0.16 -28.5 7
1964-12-13 Limerick D 2-260.7 1287 1284 60.67% 20.74% 18.59%+0.53 -3.3 7
1964-12-13 @ St Patrick's Athletic D 2-260.7 1284 1287 18.59% 20.74% 60.67%-0.53 +3.3 7
1964-12-13 Dundalk W 3-033.6 1123 1266 43.56% 20.88% 35.57%-0.13 +46.6 3
1964-12-13 @ Waterford L 0-333.6 1266 1123 35.57% 20.88% 43.56%+0.13 -46.6 5
1964-12-20 St Patrick's Athletic W 2-141.1 1267 1284 58.76% 20.79% 20.45%+0.44 +10.1 7
1964-12-20 @ Cork Celtic L 1-241.1 1284 1267 20.45% 20.79% 58.76%-0.44 -10.1 7
1964-12-20 Cork Hibernians L 1-250.9 1220 1284 53.64% 20.86% 25.50%+0.22 -22.7 5
1964-12-20 @ Dundalk W 2-150.9 1284 1220 25.50% 20.86% 53.64%-0.22 +22.7 9
1964-12-20 Bohemian D 2-260.4 1287 1163 69.55% 20.31% 10.14%+1.06 -4.9 8
1964-12-20 @ Limerick D 2-260.4 1163 1287 10.14% 20.31% 69.55%-1.06 +4.9 6
1964-12-20 Drumconda W 2-141.0 1331 1319 61.42% 20.72% 17.86%+0.56 +9.0 9
1964-12-20 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-241.0 1319 1331 17.86% 20.72% 61.42%-0.56 -9.0 11
1964-12-20 Drogheda United D 1-154.7 1237 1191 64.27% 20.62% 15.11%+0.71 -5.3 6
1964-12-20 @ Shelbourne D 1-154.7 1191 1237 15.11% 20.62% 64.27%-0.71 +5.3 5
1964-12-20 Waterford W 3-135.9 1198 1170 62.82% 20.68% 16.50%+0.63 +14.6 8
1964-12-20 @ Sligo Rovers L 1-335.9 1170 1198 16.50% 20.68% 62.82%-0.63 -14.6 3
1964-12-27 Sligo Rovers D 2-260.6 1307 1212 67.78% 20.44% 11.78%+0.93 -4.6 10
1964-12-27 @ Cork Hibernians D 2-260.6 1212 1307 11.78% 20.44% 67.78%-0.93 +4.6 9
1964-12-27 Shamrock Rovers D 0-050.7 1196 1340 43.54% 20.88% 35.59%-0.13 -0.9 6
1964-12-27 @ Drogheda United D 0-050.7 1340 1196 35.59% 20.88% 43.54%+0.13 +0.9 10
1964-12-27 Dundalk W 3-134.4 1310 1197 68.92% 20.36% 10.72%+1.01 +9.8 13
1964-12-27 @ Drumconda L 1-334.4 1197 1310 10.72% 20.36% 68.92%-1.01 -9.8 5
1964-12-27 Shelbourne L 2-359.1 1274 1231 64.01% 20.63% 15.36%+0.70 -25.7 7
1964-12-27 @ St Patrick's Athletic W 3-259.1 1231 1274 15.36% 20.63% 64.01%-0.70 +25.7 8
1964-12-27 Limerick D 1-154.6 1155 1282 45.80% 20.89% 33.31%-0.06 -1.2 4
1964-12-27 @ Waterford D 1-154.6 1282 1155 33.31% 20.89% 45.80%+0.06 +1.2 9
1965-01-03 Waterford W 1-032.3 1278 1154 69.56% 20.31% 10.13%+1.06 +5.7 9
1965-01-03 @ Cork Celtic L 0-132.3 1154 1278 10.13% 20.31% 69.56%-1.06 -5.7 4
1965-01-03 St Patrick's Athletic W 1-036.7 1195 1248 54.95% 20.85% 24.20%+0.28 +12.4 8
1965-01-03 @ Drogheda United L 0-136.7 1248 1195 24.20% 20.85% 54.95%-0.28 -12.4 7
1965-01-03 Cork Hibernians D 3-365.0 1283 1302 58.50% 20.79% 20.70%+0.42 -2.5 10
1965-01-03 @ Limerick D 3-365.0 1302 1283 20.70% 20.79% 58.50%-0.42 +2.5 11
1965-01-03 Dundalk W 5-129.4 1341 1187 71.17% 20.16% 8.67%+1.19 +14.7 12
1965-01-03 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-529.4 1187 1341 8.67% 20.16% 71.17%-1.19 -14.7 5
1965-01-03 Bohemian W 2-029.0 1257 1168 67.39% 20.46% 12.14%+0.90 +12.8 10
1965-01-03 @ Shelbourne L 0-229.0 1168 1257 12.14% 20.46% 67.39%-0.90 -12.8 6
1965-01-03 Drumconda D 0-050.7 1217 1320 48.91% 20.89% 30.21%+0.05 -2.1 10
1965-01-03 @ Sligo Rovers D 0-050.7 1320 1217 30.21% 20.89% 48.91%-0.05 +2.1 14
1965-01-08 Drogheda United W 2-032.6 1156 1208 54.98% 20.85% 24.17%+0.28 +23.4 8
1965-01-08 @ Bohemian L 0-232.6 1208 1156 24.17% 20.85% 54.98%-0.28 -23.4 8
1965-01-10 Cork Celtic W 1-035.0 1305 1283 62.26% 20.70% 17.05%+0.60 +9.2 13
1965-01-10 @ Cork Hibernians L 0-135.0 1283 1305 17.05% 20.70% 62.26%-0.60 -9.2 9
1965-01-10 Sligo Rovers W 1-036.2 1173 1215 56.11% 20.83% 23.06%+0.32 +11.9 7
1965-01-10 @ Dundalk L 0-136.2 1215 1173 23.06% 20.83% 56.11%-0.32 -11.9 10
1965-01-10 Limerick W 2-139.8 1322 1281 63.91% 20.64% 15.45%+0.69 +7.9 16
1965-01-10 @ Drumconda L 1-239.8 1281 1322 15.45% 20.64% 63.91%-0.69 -7.9 10
1965-01-10 St Patrick's Athletic W 4-131.8 1356 1236 69.34% 20.33% 10.34%+1.04 +13.5 14
1965-01-10 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-431.8 1236 1356 10.34% 20.33% 69.34%-1.04 -13.5 7
1965-01-10 Shelbourne L 0-239.4 1148 1270 46.51% 20.89% 32.61%-0.03 -40.0 4
1965-01-10 @ Waterford W 2-039.4 1270 1148 32.61% 20.89% 46.51%+0.03 +40.0 12
1965-01-17 Drumconda W 3-031.1 1274 1330 54.59% 20.85% 24.55%+0.26 +34.4 11
1965-01-17 @ Cork Celtic L 0-331.1 1330 1274 24.55% 20.85% 54.59%-0.26 -34.4 16
1965-01-17 Dundalk L 1-448.4 1273 1185 67.37% 20.47% 12.17%+0.90 -69.9 10
1965-01-17 @ Limerick W 4-148.4 1185 1273 12.17% 20.47% 67.37%-0.90 +69.9 9
1965-01-17 Cork Hibernians L 2-358.6 1310 1314 59.95% 20.76% 19.29%+0.49 -24.0 12
1965-01-17 @ Shelbourne W 3-258.6 1314 1310 19.29% 20.76% 59.95%-0.49 +24.0 15
1965-01-17 Bohemian W 4-132.7 1222 1179 64.08% 20.63% 15.29%+0.70 +19.2 9
1965-01-17 @ St Patrick's Athletic L 1-432.7 1179 1222 15.29% 20.63% 64.08%-0.70 -19.2 8
1965-01-22 Shamrock Rovers L 1-245.2 1160 1369 34.35% 20.79% 44.86%-0.42 -15.6 8
1965-01-22 @ Bohemian W 2-145.2 1369 1160 44.86% 20.79% 34.35%+0.42 +15.6 16
1965-01-24 Dundalk L 1-448.1 1309 1254 64.92% 20.59% 14.48%+0.75 -67.3 11
1965-01-24 @ Cork Celtic W 4-148.1 1254 1309 14.48% 20.59% 64.92%-0.75 +67.3 11
1965-01-24 Drumconda W 2-141.1 1286 1296 59.40% 20.77% 19.82%+0.47 +9.9 14
1965-01-24 @ Shelbourne L 1-241.1 1296 1286 19.82% 20.77% 59.40%-0.47 -9.9 16
1965-01-24 Waterford W 5-129.3 1241 1108 70.10% 20.26% 9.64%+1.10 +16.3 11
1965-01-24 @ St Patrick's Athletic L 1-529.3 1108 1241 9.64% 20.26% 70.10%-1.10 -16.3 4
1965-01-31 St Patrick's Athletic W 2-029.8 1338 1258 66.81% 20.50% 12.69%+0.87 +13.3 17
1965-01-31 @ Cork Hibernians L 0-229.8 1258 1338 12.69% 20.50% 66.81%-0.87 -13.3 11
1965-01-31 Shelbourne L 1-254.1 1322 1296 62.67% 20.68% 16.65%+0.63 -26.5 11
1965-01-31 @ Dundalk W 2-154.1 1296 1322 16.65% 20.68% 62.67%-0.63 +26.5 16
1965-01-31 Drogheda United W 3-134.5 1286 1184 68.20% 20.41% 11.39%+0.96 +10.4 18
1965-01-31 @ Drumconda L 1-334.5 1184 1286 11.39% 20.41% 68.20%-0.96 -10.4 8
1965-01-31 Limerick W 2-137.2 1385 1203 72.53% 20.00% 7.47%+1.32 +4.0 18
1965-01-31 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-237.2 1203 1385 7.47% 20.00% 72.53%-1.32 -4.0 10
1965-01-31 Cork Celtic D 2-260.2 1203 1241 56.48% 20.83% 22.70%+0.34 -2.6 11
1965-01-31 @ Sligo Rovers D 2-260.2 1241 1203 22.70% 20.83% 56.48%-0.34 +2.6 12
1965-01-31 Bohemian L 0-241.8 1092 1144 54.99% 20.85% 24.16%+0.28 -46.5 4
1965-01-31 @ Waterford W 2-041.8 1144 1092 24.16% 20.85% 54.99%-0.28 +46.5 10
1965-02-07 Cork Hibernians W 1-041.1 1191 1351 41.18% 20.87% 37.95%-0.20 +17.9 12
1965-02-07 @ Bohemian L 0-141.1 1351 1191 37.95% 20.87% 41.18%+0.20 -17.9 17
1965-02-07 Limerick L 1-253.8 1244 1199 64.22% 20.62% 15.16%+0.71 -27.1 12
1965-02-07 @ Cork Celtic W 2-153.8 1199 1244 15.16% 20.62% 64.22%-0.71 +27.2 12
1965-02-07 Dundalk L 0-143.5 1174 1295 46.57% 20.89% 32.54%-0.03 -21.2 8
1965-02-07 @ Drogheda United W 1-043.5 1295 1174 32.54% 20.89% 46.57%+0.03 +21.2 13
1965-02-07 Sligo Rovers L 0-246.4 1322 1200 69.46% 20.32% 10.23%+1.05 -59.0 16
1965-02-07 @ Shelbourne W 2-046.4 1200 1322 10.23% 20.32% 69.46%-1.05 +59.0 13
1965-02-07 Drumconda W 3-030.6 1244 1296 55.06% 20.85% 24.10%+0.28 +33.9 13
1965-02-07 @ St Patrick's Athletic L 0-330.6 1296 1244 24.10% 20.85% 55.06%-0.28 -33.9 18
1965-02-07 Shamrock Rovers L 0-231.1 1045 1389 19.10% 20.35% 60.55%-1.02 -19.0 4
1965-02-07 @ Waterford W 2-031.1 1389 1045 60.55% 20.35% 19.10%+1.02 +19.0 20
1965-02-21 Waterford W 5-337.8 1333 1026 77.02% 19.15% 3.83%+1.87 +3.1 19
1965-02-21 @ Cork Hibernians L 3-537.8 1026 1333 3.83% 19.15% 77.02%-1.87 -3.1 4
1965-02-21 St Patrick's Athletic L 0-149.1 1316 1278 63.67% 20.65% 15.68%+0.68 -28.5 13
1965-02-21 @ Dundalk W 1-049.1 1278 1316 15.68% 20.65% 63.67%-0.68 +28.5 15
1965-02-21 Bohemian D 2-260.4 1262 1209 64.89% 20.60% 14.52%+0.75 -4.1 19
1965-02-21 @ Drumconda D 2-260.4 1209 1262 14.52% 20.60% 64.89%-0.75 +4.1 13
1965-02-21 Shelbourne L 0-242.6 1226 1263 56.64% 20.82% 22.53%+0.34 -47.8 12
1965-02-21 @ Limerick W 2-042.6 1263 1226 22.53% 20.82% 56.64%-0.34 +47.9 18
1965-02-21 Cork Celtic W 1-032.1 1408 1217 72.94% 19.95% 7.12%+1.36 +4.1 22
1965-02-21 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-132.1 1217 1408 7.12% 19.95% 72.94%-1.36 -4.1 12
1965-02-21 Drogheda United W 2-137.7 1259 1153 68.52% 20.39% 11.09%+0.98 +5.9 15
1965-02-21 @ Sligo Rovers L 1-237.7 1153 1259 11.09% 20.39% 68.52%-0.98 -5.9 8
1965-02-28 Shamrock Rovers W 2-035.9 1336 1412 52.32% 20.87% 26.81%+0.17 +25.5 21
1965-02-28 @ Cork Hibernians L 0-235.9 1412 1336 26.81% 20.87% 52.32%-0.17 -25.5 22
1965-02-28 Limerick W 2-141.0 1147 1178 57.26% 20.82% 21.93%+0.37 +10.8 10
1965-02-28 @ Drogheda United L 1-241.0 1178 1147 21.93% 20.82% 57.26%-0.37 -10.8 12
1965-02-28 Cork Celtic W 3-026.6 1311 1213 68.01% 20.42% 11.56%+0.95 +17.7 20
1965-02-28 @ Shelbourne L 0-326.6 1213 1311 11.56% 20.42% 68.01%-0.95 -17.7 12
1965-02-28 Sligo Rovers W 4-027.6 1307 1265 63.97% 20.64% 15.40%+0.70 +30.0 17
1965-02-28 @ St Patrick's Athletic L 0-427.6 1265 1307 15.40% 20.64% 63.97%-0.70 -30.0 15
1965-02-28 Drumconda D 0-050.3 1023 1258 31.00% 20.74% 48.26%-0.53 +1.9 5
1965-02-28 @ Waterford D 0-050.3 1258 1023 48.26% 20.74% 31.00%+0.53 -1.9 20
1965-03-07 Waterford L 0-150.0 1158 1025 70.05% 20.27% 9.68%+1.10 -31.6 10
1965-03-07 @ Drogheda United W 1-050.0 1025 1158 9.68% 20.27% 70.05%-1.10 +31.6 7
1965-03-12 Limerick W 3-135.5 1213 1167 64.23% 20.62% 15.14%+0.71 +13.5 15
1965-03-12 @ Bohemian L 1-335.5 1167 1213 15.14% 20.62% 64.23%-0.71 -13.5 12
1965-03-14 Drogheda United W 6-232.4 1195 1126 66.01% 20.54% 13.45%+0.82 +18.8 14
1965-03-14 @ Cork Celtic L 2-632.4 1126 1195 13.45% 20.54% 66.01%-0.82 -18.8 10
1965-03-14 Waterford W 2-026.7 1288 1057 74.56% 19.69% 5.74%+1.54 +6.3 15
1965-03-14 @ Dundalk L 0-226.7 1057 1288 5.74% 19.69% 74.56%-1.54 -6.3 7
1965-03-14 Cork Hibernians W 2-035.5 1256 1362 48.61% 20.89% 30.51%+0.04 +28.3 22
1965-03-14 @ Drumconda L 0-235.5 1362 1256 30.51% 20.89% 48.61%-0.04 -28.4 21
1965-03-14 St Patrick's Athletic L 1-246.1 1154 1337 37.99% 20.84% 41.17%-0.30 -16.9 12
1965-03-14 @ Limerick W 2-146.1 1337 1154 41.17% 20.84% 37.99%+0.30 +16.9 19
1965-03-14 Shelbourne W 3-137.1 1386 1329 65.19% 20.58% 14.23%+0.77 +12.8 24
1965-03-14 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-337.1 1329 1386 14.23% 20.58% 65.19%-0.77 -12.8 20
1965-03-14 Bohemian L 0-642.5 1235 1226 61.15% 20.73% 18.12%+0.55 -143.4 15
1965-03-14 @ Sligo Rovers W 6-042.5 1226 1235 18.12% 20.73% 61.15%-0.55 +143.4 17
1965-03-21 Dundalk D 3-365.3 1333 1294 63.75% 20.64% 15.60%+0.68 -3.2 22
1965-03-21 @ Cork Hibernians D 3-365.3 1294 1333 15.60% 20.64% 63.75%-0.68 +3.2 16
1965-03-21 Shamrock Rovers W 2-036.4 1285 1399 47.46% 20.89% 31.65%+0.00 +29.2 24
1965-03-21 @ Drumconda L 0-236.4 1399 1285 31.65% 20.89% 47.46%+0.00 -29.2 24
1965-03-21 Cork Celtic L 3-653.8 1354 1214 70.47% 20.23% 9.31%+1.13 -58.8 19
1965-03-21 @ St Patrick's Athletic W 6-353.8 1214 1354 9.31% 20.23% 70.47%-1.13 +58.8 16
1965-03-21 Sligo Rovers L 0-339.6 1051 1092 56.22% 20.83% 22.95%+0.33 -69.0 7
1965-03-21 @ Waterford W 3-039.6 1092 1051 22.95% 20.83% 56.22%-0.33 +69.0 17
1965-03-26 Shamrock Rovers W 1-043.1 1161 1370 34.37% 20.79% 44.84%-0.42 +20.5 19
1965-03-26 @ Sligo Rovers L 0-143.1 1370 1161 44.84% 20.79% 34.37%+0.42 -20.5 24
1965-03-27 Cork Celtic W 2-029.9 1370 1273 67.93% 20.43% 11.64%+0.94 +12.3 19
1965-03-27 @ Bohemian L 0-229.9 1273 1370 11.64% 20.43% 67.93%-0.94 -12.3 16
1965-03-28 Bohemian D 2-261.2 1260 1382 46.53% 20.89% 32.58%-0.03 -1.0 17
1965-03-28 @ Cork Celtic D 2-261.2 1382 1260 32.58% 20.89% 46.53%+0.03 +1.0 20
1965-03-28 Drumconda L 1-252.9 1297 1314 58.76% 20.79% 20.45%+0.44 -24.8 16
1965-03-28 @ Dundalk W 2-152.9 1314 1297 20.45% 20.79% 58.76%-0.44 +24.8 26
1965-03-28 Waterford L 1-352.0 1137 982 71.27% 20.15% 8.58%+1.20 -52.5 12
1965-03-28 @ Limerick W 3-152.0 982 1137 8.58% 20.15% 71.27%-1.20 +52.5 9
1965-03-28 Drogheda United W 4-129.5 1349 1107 74.95% 19.62% 5.42%+1.58 +7.2 26
1965-03-28 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-429.5 1107 1349 5.42% 19.62% 74.95%-1.58 -7.2 10
1965-03-28 St Patrick's Athletic W 6-234.5 1316 1295 62.23% 20.70% 17.08%+0.60 +23.2 22
1965-03-28 @ Shelbourne L 2-634.5 1295 1316 17.08% 20.70% 62.23%-0.60 -23.2 19
1965-03-28 Cork Hibernians W 2-036.6 1181 1330 42.78% 20.87% 36.34%-0.15 +32.7 21
1965-03-28 @ Sligo Rovers L 0-236.6 1330 1181 36.34% 20.87% 42.78%+0.15 -32.7 22
1965-04-01 Shelbourne W 5-133.1 1383 1339 64.11% 20.63% 15.26%+0.70 +24.8 22
1965-04-01 @ Bohemian L 1-533.1 1339 1383 15.26% 20.63% 64.11%-0.70 -24.8 22
1965-04-03 Drogheda United W 1-031.4 1272 1100 72.05% 20.06% 7.88%+1.27 +4.5 21
1965-04-03 @ St Patrick's Athletic L 0-131.4 1100 1272 7.88% 20.06% 72.05%-1.27 -4.5 10
1965-04-04 Cork Hibernians D 1-154.5 1096 1297 35.36% 20.81% 43.83%-0.39 +0.8 11
1965-04-04 @ Drogheda United D 1-154.5 1297 1096 43.83% 20.81% 35.36%+0.39 -0.8 23
1965-04-05 Dundalk W 2-029.6 1408 1273 70.19% 20.25% 9.55%+1.11 +10.2 24
1965-04-05 @ Bohemian L 0-229.6 1273 1408 9.55% 20.25% 70.19%-1.11 -10.2 16
1965-04-07 Sligo Rovers W 2-028.8 1339 1214 69.62% 20.30% 10.07%+1.06 +10.7 28
1965-04-07 @ Drumconda L 0-228.8 1214 1339 10.07% 20.30% 69.62%-1.06 -10.7 21
1965-04-07 Cork Celtic W 2-039.4 1034 1259 32.24% 20.76% 47.00%-0.49 +40.3 11
1965-04-07 @ Waterford L 0-239.4 1259 1034 47.00% 20.76% 32.24%+0.49 -40.3 17
1965-04-08 Shelbourne W 2-039.2 1096 1314 33.20% 20.78% 46.02%-0.46 +39.5 13
1965-04-08 @ Drogheda United L 0-239.2 1314 1096 46.02% 20.78% 33.20%+0.46 -39.5 22
1965-04-11 Cork Hibernians W 1-037.7 1219 1297 52.06% 20.87% 27.07%+0.16 +13.6 19
1965-04-11 @ Cork Celtic L 0-137.7 1297 1219 27.07% 20.87% 52.06%-0.16 -13.6 23
1965-04-11 Bohemian D 1-155.1 1136 1418 25.34% 20.60% 54.06%-0.74 +2.9 14
1965-04-11 @ Drogheda United D 1-155.1 1418 1136 54.06% 20.60% 25.34%+0.74 -2.9 25
1965-04-11 Drumconda L 2-347.9 1084 1349 27.30% 20.65% 52.05%-0.67 -12.2 12
1965-04-11 @ Limerick W 3-247.9 1349 1084 52.05% 20.65% 27.30%+0.67 +12.2 30
1965-04-11 Waterford W 3-241.4 1275 1074 73.34% 19.89% 6.77%+1.40 +3.5 24
1965-04-11 @ Shelbourne L 2-341.4 1074 1275 6.77% 19.89% 73.34%-1.40 -3.5 11
1965-04-11 Dundalk W 2-142.1 1203 1262 54.19% 20.86% 24.96%+0.25 +12.0 23
1965-04-11 @ Sligo Rovers L 1-242.1 1262 1203 24.96% 20.86% 54.19%-0.25 -12.0 16
1965-04-11 Shamrock Rovers L 0-145.8 1276 1356 51.74% 20.87% 27.38%+0.15 -23.3 21
1965-04-11 @ St Patrick's Athletic W 1-045.8 1356 1276 27.38% 20.87% 51.74%-0.15 +23.3 28
1965-04-14 Limerick W 3-132.6 1283 1072 73.77% 19.83% 6.40%+1.45 +6.0 25
1965-04-14 @ Cork Hibernians L 1-332.6 1072 1283 6.40% 19.83% 73.77%-1.45 -6.0 12
1965-04-15 Sligo Rovers L 1-539.3 1066 1215 42.82% 20.87% 36.31%-0.15 -58.9 12
1965-04-15 @ Limerick W 5-139.3 1215 1066 36.31% 20.87% 42.82%+0.15 +58.9 25
1965-04-18 Shelbourne W 3-028.8 1289 1278 61.33% 20.72% 17.95%+0.56 +26.3 27
1965-04-18 @ Cork Hibernians L 0-328.8 1278 1289 17.95% 20.72% 61.33%-0.56 -26.3 24
1965-04-18 Limerick W 2-135.6 1250 1007 75.00% 19.61% 5.39%+1.59 +2.9 18
1965-04-18 @ Dundalk L 1-235.6 1007 1250 5.39% 19.61% 75.00%-1.59 -2.9 12
1965-04-18 Cork Celtic W 3-026.4 1362 1233 69.85% 20.28% 9.86%+1.08 +15.3 32
1965-04-18 @ Drumconda L 0-326.4 1233 1362 9.86% 20.28% 69.85%-1.08 -15.3 19
1965-04-18 Sligo Rovers W 3-027.3 1380 1274 68.49% 20.39% 11.12%+0.98 +17.1 30
1965-04-18 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-327.3 1274 1380 11.12% 20.39% 68.49%-0.98 -17.1 25
1965-04-18 Drogheda United D 1-154.4 1071 1139 53.19% 20.86% 25.94%+0.21 -2.8 12
1965-04-18 @ Waterford D 1-154.4 1139 1071 25.94% 20.86% 53.19%-0.21 +2.8 15
1965-04-19 St Patrick's Athletic W 1-032.9 1415 1253 71.60% 20.11% 8.29%+1.23 +4.7 27
1965-04-19 @ Bohemian L 0-132.9 1253 1415 8.29% 20.11% 71.60%-1.23 -4.7 21
1965-04-19 Shamrock Rovers D 1-155.7 1253 1397 43.55% 20.88% 35.57%-0.13 -0.8 19
1965-04-19 @ Dundalk D 1-155.7 1397 1253 35.57% 20.88% 43.55%+0.13 +0.8 31

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1964-11-22 8.35% Drogheda United 1158 3 @ Dundalk 1318 1
2 1965-03-28 8.58% Waterford 982 3 @ Limerick 1137 1
3 1965-03-21 9.31% Cork Celtic 1214 6 @ St Patrick's Athletic 1354 3
4 1965-03-07 9.68% Waterford 1025 1 @ Drogheda United 1158 0
5 1965-02-07 10.23% Sligo Rovers 1200 2 @ Shelbourne 1322 0
6 1965-01-17 12.17% Dundalk 1185 4 @ Limerick 1273 1
7 1965-01-24 14.48% Dundalk 1254 4 @ Cork Celtic 1309 1
8 1965-02-07 15.16% Limerick 1199 2 @ Cork Celtic 1244 1
9 1964-12-27 15.36% Shelbourne 1231 3 @ St Patrick's Athletic 1274 2
10 1965-02-21 15.68% St Patrick's Athletic 1278 1 @ Dundalk 1316 0
11 1965-01-31 16.65% Shelbourne 1296 2 @ Dundalk 1322 1
12 1964-11-29 16.69% Sligo Rovers 1185 1 @ Drogheda United 1211 0
13 1964-12-13 17.39% Drumconda 1293 2 @ Cork Hibernians 1310 1
14 1965-03-14 18.12% Bohemian 1226 6 @ Sligo Rovers 1235 0
15 1965-01-17 19.29% Cork Hibernians 1314 3 @ Shelbourne 1310 2
16 1965-03-28 20.45% Drumconda 1314 2 @ Dundalk 1297 1
17 1965-02-21 22.53% Shelbourne 1263 2 @ Limerick 1226 0
18 1965-03-21 22.95% Sligo Rovers 1092 3 @ Waterford 1051 0
19 1964-11-29 24.09% Shamrock Rovers 1342 2 @ Cork Celtic 1290 1
20 1965-01-31 24.16% Bohemian 1144 2 @ Waterford 1092 0
21 1964-12-20 25.50% Cork Hibernians 1284 2 @ Dundalk 1220 1
22 1964-11-15 26.64% Drumconda 1254 2 @ Drogheda United 1180 1
23 1965-04-11 27.38% Shamrock Rovers 1356 1 @ St Patrick's Athletic 1276 0
24 1964-11-08 30.42% St Patrick's Athletic 1270 2 @ Waterford 1165 1
25 1965-04-07 32.24% @ Waterford 1034 2 Cork Celtic 1259 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1965-03-14 143.41 Bohemian 6 1226 18.12% @ Sligo Rovers 0 1235 61.15% 20.73%
2 1965-01-17 69.94 Dundalk 4 1185 12.17% @ Limerick 1 1273 67.37% 20.47%
3 1965-03-21 69.00 Sligo Rovers 3 1092 22.95% @ Waterford 0 1051 56.22% 20.83%
4 1965-01-24 67.26 Dundalk 4 1254 14.48% @ Cork Celtic 1 1309 64.92% 20.59%
5 1965-02-07 59.01 Sligo Rovers 2 1200 10.23% @ Shelbourne 0 1322 69.46% 20.32%
6 1965-04-15 58.89 Sligo Rovers 5 1215 36.31% @ Limerick 1 1066 42.82% 20.87%
7 1965-03-21 58.85 Cork Celtic 6 1214 9.31% @ St Patrick's Athletic 3 1354 70.47% 20.23%
8 1964-11-22 52.74 Drogheda United 3 1158 8.35% @ Dundalk 1 1318 71.53% 20.12%
9 1965-03-28 52.53 Waterford 3 982 8.58% @ Limerick 1 1137 71.27% 20.15%
10 1965-02-21 47.86 Shelbourne 2 1263 22.53% @ Limerick 0 1226 56.64% 20.82%
11 1964-12-13 46.62 @ Waterford 3 1123 43.56% Dundalk 0 1266 35.57% 20.88%
12 1965-01-31 46.52 Bohemian 2 1144 24.16% @ Waterford 0 1092 54.99% 20.85%
13 1965-04-07 40.27 @ Waterford 2 1034 32.24% Cork Celtic 0 1259 47.00% 20.76%
14 1965-01-10 39.95 Shelbourne 2 1270 32.61% @ Waterford 0 1148 46.51% 20.89%
15 1965-04-08 39.55 @ Drogheda United 2 1096 33.20% Shelbourne 0 1314 46.02% 20.78%
16 1965-01-17 34.41 @ Cork Celtic 3 1274 54.59% Drumconda 0 1330 24.55% 20.85%
17 1965-02-07 33.86 @ St Patrick's Athletic 3 1244 55.06% Drumconda 0 1296 24.10% 20.85%
18 1965-03-28 32.66 @ Sligo Rovers 2 1181 42.78% Cork Hibernians 0 1330 36.34% 20.87%
19 1965-03-07 31.58 Waterford 1 1025 9.68% @ Drogheda United 0 1158 70.05% 20.27%
20 1965-02-28 30.00 @ St Patrick's Athletic 4 1307 63.97% Sligo Rovers 0 1265 15.40% 20.64%
21 1965-03-21 29.23 @ Drumconda 2 1285 47.46% Shamrock Rovers 0 1399 31.65% 20.89%
22 1965-02-21 28.54 St Patrick's Athletic 1 1278 15.68% @ Dundalk 0 1316 63.67% 20.65%
23 1964-11-08 28.48 @ Cork Hibernians 4 1262 64.87% Drogheda United 0 1209 14.53% 20.60%
24 1964-12-13 28.47 @ Shelbourne 3 1208 42.49% Shamrock Rovers 1 1359 36.64% 20.87%
25 1965-03-14 28.36 @ Drumconda 2 1256 48.61% Cork Hibernians 0 1362 30.51% 20.89%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1965-03-21 65.3 @ Cork Hibernians 3 1333 63.75% Dundalk 3 1294 15.60% 20.64%
2 1965-01-03 65.0 @ Limerick 3 1283 58.50% Cork Hibernians 3 1302 20.70% 20.79%
3 1964-12-06 64.5 @ Dundalk 3 1271 69.58% Bohemian 3 1147 10.11% 20.31%
4 1965-03-28 61.2 @ Cork Celtic 2 1260 46.53% Bohemian 2 1382 32.58% 20.89%
5 1964-11-22 60.8 @ Limerick 2 1293 60.94% Cork Celtic 2 1287 18.32% 20.74%
6 1964-12-13 60.7 @ St Patrick's Athletic 2 1287 60.67% Limerick 2 1284 18.59% 20.74%
7 1964-12-27 60.6 @ Cork Hibernians 2 1307 67.78% Sligo Rovers 2 1212 11.78% 20.44%
8 1964-12-20 60.4 @ Limerick 2 1287 69.55% Bohemian 2 1163 10.14% 20.31%
9 1965-02-21 60.4 @ Drumconda 2 1262 64.89% Bohemian 2 1209 14.52% 20.60%
10 1965-01-31 60.2 @ Sligo Rovers 2 1203 56.48% Cork Celtic 2 1241 22.70% 20.83%
11 1964-12-27 59.1 Shelbourne 3 1231 15.36% @ St Patrick's Athletic 2 1274 64.01% 20.63%
12 1965-01-17 58.6 Cork Hibernians 3 1314 19.29% @ Shelbourne 2 1310 59.95% 20.76%
13 1964-12-06 56.0 @ Shamrock Rovers 1 1365 65.40% Cork Hibernians 1 1305 14.03% 20.57%
14 1965-04-19 55.7 @ Dundalk 1 1253 43.55% Shamrock Rovers 1 1397 35.57% 20.88%
15 1964-11-29 55.1 @ St Patrick's Athletic 1 1289 62.46% Dundalk 1 1266 16.85% 20.69%
16 1965-04-11 55.1 @ Drogheda United 1 1136 25.34% Bohemian 1 1418 54.06% 20.60%
17 1964-11-15 55.0 @ Shelbourne 1 1235 51.66% Dundalk 1 1316 27.46% 20.88%
18 1964-12-06 54.8 @ Sligo Rovers 1 1213 52.79% St Patrick's Athletic 1 1284 26.34% 20.87%
19 1964-11-08 54.7 @ Sligo Rovers 1 1184 50.00% Limerick 1 1279 29.12% 20.88%
20 1964-12-20 54.7 @ Shelbourne 1 1237 64.27% Drogheda United 1 1191 15.11% 20.62%
21 1964-12-27 54.6 @ Waterford 1 1155 45.80% Limerick 1 1282 33.31% 20.89%
22 1964-11-15 54.5 @ Bohemian 1 1158 61.54% Waterford 1 1145 17.74% 20.72%
23 1965-04-04 54.5 @ Drogheda United 1 1096 35.36% Cork Hibernians 1 1297 43.83% 20.81%
24 1965-04-18 54.4 @ Waterford 1 1071 53.19% Drogheda United 1 1139 25.94% 20.86%
25 1965-01-31 54.1 Shelbourne 2 1296 16.65% @ Dundalk 1 1322 62.67% 20.68%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1965-04-18 26.4 @ Drumconda 3 1362 69.85% Cork Celtic 0 1233 9.86% 20.28%
2 1964-11-15 26.6 @ Cork Celtic 3 1268 67.20% Sligo Rovers 0 1182 12.32% 20.48%
3 1965-02-28 26.6 @ Shelbourne 3 1311 68.01% Cork Celtic 0 1213 11.56% 20.42%
4 1965-03-14 26.7 @ Dundalk 2 1288 74.56% Waterford 0 1057 5.74% 19.69%
5 1964-11-08 26.9 @ Cork Hibernians 4 1262 64.87% Drogheda United 0 1209 14.53% 20.60%
6 1965-04-18 27.3 @ Shamrock Rovers 3 1380 68.49% Sligo Rovers 0 1274 11.12% 20.39%
7 1965-02-28 27.6 @ St Patrick's Athletic 4 1307 63.97% Sligo Rovers 0 1265 15.40% 20.64%
8 1964-11-08 27.8 @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1342 72.27% Bohemian 0 1166 7.70% 20.03%
9 1965-04-07 28.8 @ Drumconda 2 1339 69.62% Sligo Rovers 0 1214 10.07% 20.30%
10 1965-04-18 28.8 @ Cork Hibernians 3 1289 61.33% Shelbourne 0 1278 17.95% 20.72%
11 1965-01-03 29.0 @ Shelbourne 2 1257 67.39% Bohemian 0 1168 12.14% 20.46%
12 1965-01-24 29.3 @ St Patrick's Athletic 5 1241 70.10% Waterford 1 1108 9.64% 20.26%
13 1965-01-03 29.4 @ Shamrock Rovers 5 1341 71.17% Dundalk 1 1187 8.67% 20.16%
14 1965-03-28 29.5 @ Shamrock Rovers 4 1349 74.95% Drogheda United 1 1107 5.42% 19.62%
15 1965-04-05 29.6 @ Bohemian 2 1408 70.19% Dundalk 0 1273 9.55% 20.25%
16 1965-01-31 29.8 @ Cork Hibernians 2 1338 66.81% St Patrick's Athletic 0 1258 12.69% 20.50%
17 1965-03-27 29.9 @ Bohemian 2 1370 67.93% Cork Celtic 0 1273 11.64% 20.43%
18 1964-12-06 30.2 @ Cork Celtic 2 1267 64.05% Shelbourne 0 1224 15.32% 20.63%
19 1965-02-07 30.6 @ St Patrick's Athletic 3 1244 55.06% Drumconda 0 1296 24.10% 20.85%
20 1965-01-17 31.1 @ Cork Celtic 3 1274 54.59% Drumconda 0 1330 24.55% 20.85%
21 1965-02-07 31.1 Shamrock Rovers 2 1389 60.55% @ Waterford 0 1045 19.10% 20.35%
22 1965-04-03 31.4 @ St Patrick's Athletic 1 1272 72.05% Drogheda United 0 1100 7.88% 20.06%
23 1965-01-10 31.8 @ Shamrock Rovers 4 1356 69.34% St Patrick's Athletic 1 1236 10.34% 20.33%
24 1965-02-21 32.1 @ Shamrock Rovers 1 1408 72.94% Cork Celtic 0 1217 7.12% 19.95%
25 1964-11-22 32.2 @ Cork Hibernians 1 1281 69.80% Bohemian 0 1153 9.92% 20.29%