2004 League of Ireland Premier Division Season

180 games

Final

Champion

Shelbourne

68 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Waterford United

16.96 points above expected

50 points · 33.04 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Shamrock Rovers

15.44 points below expected

38 points · 53.44 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Shelbourne	36	19	11	6	68	56	36	+20	72.60	-4.60
2	Cork City	36	18	11	7	65	52	31	+21	57.48	+7.52
3	Bohemian	36	15	15	6	60	51	30	+21	71.46	-11.46
4	Drogheda United	36	15	7	14	52	45	43	+2	42.45	+9.55
5	Waterford United	36	14	8	14	50	44	49	-5	33.04	+16.96
6	Longford Town	36	11	13	12	46	30	33	-3	47.23	-1.23
7	Derry City	36	11	11	14	44	23	32	-9	36.04	+7.96
8	St Patrick's Athletic	36	11	9	16	42	38	49	-11	44.46	-2.46
9	Shamrock Rovers	36	10	8	18	38	41	47	-6	53.44	-15.44
10	Dublin City	36	6	7	23	25	39	69	-30	35.21	-10.21

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Waterford United	50	33.04	+16.96
2	Drogheda United	52	42.45	+9.55
3	Derry City	44	36.04	+7.96
4	Cork City	65	57.48	+7.52
5	Longford Town	46	47.23	-1.23

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Shamrock Rovers	38	53.44	-15.44
2	Bohemian	60	71.46	-11.46
3	Dublin City	25	35.21	-10.21
4	Shelbourne	68	72.60	-4.60
5	St Patrick's Athletic	42	44.46	-2.46

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Drogheda United	4	Apr 6 – Apr 16	1 in 335
2	Cork City	7	Sep 23 – Oct 26	1 in 124
3	Waterford United	3	Sep 1 – Oct 11	1 in 116
4	Longford Town	4	Aug 6 – Sep 17	1 in 42
5	Derry City	2	Jun 25 – Jul 2	1 in 10

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Shamrock Rovers	4	Aug 6 – Sep 3	1 in 145
2	Drogheda United	4	Sep 17 – Oct 14	1 in 110
3	Bohemian	2	Apr 22 – Apr 30	1 in 41
4	Waterford United	4	Jun 11 – Jul 2	1 in 22
5	St Patrick's Athletic	3	Apr 16 – Apr 30	1 in 16

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Waterford United	5	Mar 19 – Apr 9	1 in 60
2	Cork City	12	Sep 23 – Nov 19	1 in 40
3	Derry City	5	Jun 19 – Jul 17	1 in 39
4	Drogheda United	6	Jul 18 – Aug 27	1 in 37
5	Bohemian	14	Jun 22 – Oct 18	1 in 22

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Bohemian	7	Apr 5 – May 7	1 in 549
2	Shamrock Rovers	13	Aug 6 – Nov 5	1 in 464
3	Longford Town	8	Jun 4 – Aug 2	1 in 45
4	Shelbourne	3	Jul 2 – Jul 18	1 in 22
5	Dublin City	7	Mar 19 – Apr 16	1 in 11

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Shelbourne	1385	68	-16	8	9.9	-1.9
Cork City	1353	65	+11	9	7.7	+1.3
Bohemian	1423	60	+9	10	10.2	-0.2
Drogheda United	1220	52	-26	3	5.8	-2.8
Waterford United	1154	50	-11	4	5.3	-1.3
Longford Town	1252	46	+37	11	7.3	+3.7
Derry City	1179	44	-5	5	6.5	-1.5
St Patrick's Athletic	1205	42	+9	8	6.0	+2.0
Shamrock Rovers	1224	38	-8	6	6.8	-0.8
Dublin City	1106	25	-16	3	4.4	-1.4

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	BOH	CC	DC	DU	DC	LT	SR	SHE	SPA	WU
Bohemian	—	2-1-1 6.99	1-2-1 8.92	2-1-1 8.17	1-1-2 9.18	2-2-0 7.81	2-1-1 7.62	1-3-0 5.31	3-1-0 8.22	1-3-0 9.19
Cork City	1-1-2 3.91	—	2-2-0 7.60	2-1-1 6.94	3-1-0 7.56	3-1-0 6.27	1-2-1 5.74	0-2-2 3.74	4-0-0 6.78	2-1-1 7.86
Derry City	1-2-1 2.31	0-2-2 3.37	—	1-0-3 4.92	3-0-1 5.67	0-2-2 4.29	2-1-1 3.64	1-1-2 2.19	1-3-0 4.51	2-0-2 5.79
Drogheda United	1-1-2 2.91	1-1-2 3.96	3-0-1 5.93	—	3-1-0 6.68	0-1-3 5.08	4-0-0 4.32	1-1-2 2.56	1-1-2 5.20	1-1-2 6.57
Dublin City	2-1-1 2.11	0-1-3 3.41	1-0-3 5.16	0-1-3 4.21	—	1-1-2 3.97	1-1-2 3.52	0-0-4 2.14	0-2-2 4.37	1-0-3 5.73
Longford Town	0-2-2 3.19	0-1-3 4.58	2-2-0 6.57	3-1-0 5.76	2-1-1 6.93	—	1-2-1 4.75	1-1-2 2.88	1-1-2 5.95	1-2-1 7.17
Shamrock Rovers	1-1-2 3.36	1-2-1 5.09	1-1-2 7.31	0-0-4 6.56	2-1-1 7.43	1-2-1 6.09	—	1-1-2 3.30	2-0-2 6.35	1-0-3 7.51
Shelbourne	0-3-1 5.52	2-2-0 7.19	2-1-1 9.07	2-1-1 8.60	4-0-0 9.13	2-1-1 8.20	2-1-1 7.69	—	3-1-0 8.40	2-1-1 9.22
St Patrick's Athletic	0-1-3 2.86	0-0-4 4.11	0-3-1 6.34	2-1-1 5.64	2-2-0 6.49	2-1-1 4.88	2-0-2 4.51	0-1-3 2.71	—	3-0-1 6.51
Waterford United	0-3-1 2.10	1-1-2 3.16	2-0-2 5.04	2-1-1 4.30	3-0-1 5.10	1-2-1 3.75	3-0-1 3.46	1-1-2 2.07	1-0-3 4.35	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.43	+8.4
Allowed	0.58	-8.1
Differential	0.93	+7.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	10.56%	9.72%	7.78%	2.50%	1.11%	—	31.67%
1	9.72%	13.33%	6.67%	4.44%	1.11%	—	35.28%
2	7.78%	6.67%	3.89%	2.22%	0.28%	0.28%	21.11%
3	2.50%	4.44%	2.22%	—	—	—	9.17%
4	1.11%	1.11%	0.28%	—	—	—	2.50%
5+	—	—	0.28%	—	—	—	0.28%
Total	31.67%	35.28%	21.11%	9.17%	2.50%	0.28%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.16	1.16	+0.00
SD	1.07	1.07	1.56
CV	0.92	0.92	—
Max	5	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
1	13.89%	13.89%	5.56%	—	—	—	33.33%
2	8.33%	2.78%	11.11%	2.78%	2.78%	—	27.78%
3	8.33%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	13.89%
4	2.78%	—	—	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	50.00%	25.00%	19.44%	2.78%	2.78%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.42	0.83	+0.58
SD	1.08	1.03	1.34
CV	0.76	1.23	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	8.33%	5.56%	—	—	—	19.44%
1	13.89%	22.22%	2.78%	—	—	—	38.89%
2	11.11%	5.56%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	22.22%
3	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	36.11%	44.44%	16.67%	2.78%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.44	0.86	+0.58
SD	1.08	0.80	1.32
CV	0.75	0.93	—
Max	4	3	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	19.44%	16.67%	8.33%	5.56%	2.78%	—	52.78%
1	16.67%	11.11%	2.78%	—	—	—	30.56%
2	11.11%	2.78%	—	2.78%	—	—	16.67%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	47.22%	30.56%	11.11%	8.33%	2.78%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.64	0.89	-0.25
SD	0.76	1.09	1.46
CV	1.19	1.23	—
Max	2	4	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	11.11%	2.78%	8.33%	—	—	33.33%
1	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
2	16.67%	8.33%	2.78%	2.78%	—	2.78%	33.33%
3	2.78%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	8.33%
4	2.78%	—	—	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	38.89%	27.78%	13.89%	16.67%	—	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.25	1.19	+0.06
SD	1.11	1.28	1.80
CV	0.88	1.07	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	8.33%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	33.33%
1	—	8.33%	16.67%	11.11%	2.78%	—	38.89%
2	—	5.56%	2.78%	8.33%	—	—	16.67%
3	—	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	—	8.33%
4	—	—	2.78%	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	8.33%	27.78%	36.11%	19.44%	8.33%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.08	1.92	-0.83
SD	1.05	1.08	1.46
CV	0.97	0.56	—
Max	4	4	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	8.33%	16.67%	—	—	—	41.67%
1	16.67%	19.44%	2.78%	5.56%	—	—	44.44%
2	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
3	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	2.78%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	38.89%	36.11%	19.44%	5.56%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.83	0.92	-0.08
SD	0.97	0.91	1.40
CV	1.17	0.99	—
Max	4	3	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	19.44%	5.56%	2.78%	—	—	33.33%
1	2.78%	13.89%	11.11%	5.56%	2.78%	—	36.11%
2	2.78%	11.11%	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	19.44%
3	2.78%	2.78%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	19.44%	47.22%	19.44%	11.11%	2.78%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.14	1.31	-0.17
SD	1.13	1.01	1.68
CV	0.99	0.77	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.89%	—	8.33%	2.78%	—	—	25.00%
1	11.11%	11.11%	—	2.78%	2.78%	—	27.78%
2	11.11%	8.33%	5.56%	—	—	—	25.00%
3	2.78%	8.33%	2.78%	—	—	—	13.89%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	2.78%	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	38.89%	33.33%	19.44%	5.56%	2.78%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.56	1.00	+0.56
SD	1.32	1.04	1.65
CV	0.85	1.04	—
Max	5	4	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
1	8.33%	13.89%	13.89%	8.33%	—	—	44.44%
2	8.33%	8.33%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	33.33%	30.56%	13.89%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.06	1.36	-0.31
SD	0.86	0.99	1.47
CV	0.81	0.73	—
Max	3	3	+2
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.78%	13.89%	8.33%	—	2.78%	—	27.78%
1	8.33%	13.89%	5.56%	5.56%	2.78%	—	36.11%
2	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	—	8.33%	5.56%	—	—	—	13.89%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	47.22%	25.00%	5.56%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.22	1.36	-0.14
SD	1.02	1.02	1.51
CV	0.83	0.75	—
Max	3	4	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 36

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Bohemian	1423	60	71.46	-11.46	11.0%	53	58	67	72	76	83	87
Shelbourne	1385	68	72.60	-4.60	26.0%	56	58	68	71	77	87	91
Cork City	1353	65	57.48	+7.52	86.0%	40	45	52	58	62	70	75
Longford Town	1252	46	47.23	-1.23	49.0%	30	33	42	47	52	60	69
Shamrock Rovers	1224	38	53.44	-15.44	3.0%	33	40	49	53	59	64	68
Drogheda United	1220	52	42.45	+9.55	92.0%	22	29	38	44	47	54	56
St Patrick's Athletic	1205	42	44.46	-2.46	44.0%	24	30	38	44	50	59	63
Derry City	1179	44	36.04	+7.96	86.0%	18	24	31	36	41	47	57
Waterford United	1154	50	33.04	+16.96	99.0%	17	21	28	33	38	44	54
Dublin City	1106	25	35.21	-10.21	7.0%	20	22	30	36	40	45	53

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8.5% * Slight Edge: 8.5% to 12.5% * Clear Edge: 12.5% to 19% * Strong Edge: 19% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+0.00%

No Edge

36.11%27.78%36.11%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 0.00 Elo pts.

343 Elo

0.003 goals per Elo point

01000

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.04 goals

Neutral

-2+0.00+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.22 * Runaway: 0.22 and up.

Title-Race Openness

2.2

Top-Heavy

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

51%

Shelbourne, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.08/gm

Tight Race

00.220.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.9 * Some Luck: 5.9 to 8.85 * Lucky: 8.85 to 11.8 * Wild Swing: 11.8 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.87 * Close: 0.87 to 1.3 * Off: 1.3 to 1.74 * Way Off: 1.74 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

10.00 points

Lucky

07.3818

Average Finish Error

Expected

2.00

Way Off

01.082.5

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

99.00%

Waterford United

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

3.00%

Shamrock Rovers

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.95 * Strong Separation: 1.95 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 76.5% * Wide Edge: 76.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 87.5% * Clear Edge: 87.5% to 91.5% * Strong Edge: 91.5% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 59% * Frequent: 59% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.

Gini Index

0.14

Balanced

00.160.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 104.00

1.68

Coin-Flip Parity

11.71.952.22.75

Interquartile Edge

69%

Slight Edge

50%68%76.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

86%

Even

50%88%100%

Close Games

Expected

65%

Very Frequent

0%66%100%

Blowouts

Expected

10%

Rare

0%11%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Notable Separation: 0.41 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.56 * Strong Carryover: 0.56 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 20.5% * As Expected: 20.5% to 23% * Upset-Prone: 23% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 20% * Shaky Favorites: 20% to 23% * Very Shaky: 23% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.65

Hard to Predict

00.602

Matchup Imbalance

0.38

Slight Separation

00.370.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.99

Chaotic

01.002

Repeatability

0.36

Weak Carryover

00.360.560.691

Upset Rate

Expected

27%

Very Upset-Prone

0%23%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

24%

Very Shaky

0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.26 * Well Above Noise: 0.26 and up.

Probability calibration

0.50

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.62

Overconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.085

Well Within Noise

00.1290.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Shelbourne	51.00%	41.00%	7.00%	—	1.00%	—	—	—	—	—
Cork City	5.00%	11.00%	42.00%	21.00%	14.00%	4.00%	1.00%	2.00%	—	—
Bohemian	43.00%	45.00%	9.00%	3.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Drogheda United	—	—	2.00%	7.00%	16.00%	26.00%	20.00%	17.00%	4.00%	8.00%
Waterford United	—	—	1.00%	—	1.00%	5.00%	14.00%	14.00%	28.00%	37.00%
Longford Town	—	1.00%	7.00%	19.00%	22.00%	24.00%	15.00%	7.00%	2.00%	3.00%
Derry City	—	—	1.00%	—	4.00%	12.00%	14.00%	26.00%	23.00%	20.00%
St Patrick's Athletic	—	—	3.00%	17.00%	20.00%	13.00%	19.00%	9.00%	14.00%	5.00%
Shamrock Rovers	1.00%	2.00%	28.00%	29.00%	21.00%	12.00%	4.00%	2.00%	1.00%	—
Dublin City	—	—	—	4.00%	1.00%	4.00%	13.00%	23.00%	28.00%	27.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Bohemian	100%	—
Cork City	100%	—
Shamrock Rovers	100%	—
Shelbourne	100%	—
Longford Town	97.00%	3.00%
St Patrick's Athletic	95.00%	5.00%
Drogheda United	92.00%	8.00%
Derry City	80.00%	20.00%
Dublin City	73.00%	27.00%
Waterford United	63.00%	37.00%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2004-03-19	Derry City	D 1-1	53.5	1227	1163	44.61%	28.60%	26.79%	+0.19	-0.6	1
2004-03-19	@ St Patrick's Athletic	D 1-1	53.5	1163	1227	26.79%	28.60%	44.61%	-0.19	+0.6	1
2004-03-19	Drogheda United	W 2-1	50.2	1102	1154	28.65%	28.97%	42.39%	-0.15	+6.5	3
2004-03-19	@ Waterford United	L 1-2	50.2	1154	1102	42.39%	28.97%	28.65%	+0.15	-6.5	0
2004-03-19	Dublin City	W 3-1	39.9	1284	1182	49.63%	27.41%	22.95%	+0.30	+7.0	3
2004-03-19	@ Cork City	L 1-3	39.9	1182	1284	22.95%	27.41%	49.63%	-0.30	-7.0	0
2004-03-19	Shamrock Rovers	W 1-0	38.0	1427	1288	54.46%	25.80%	19.74%	+0.41	+3.7	3
2004-03-19	@ Shelbourne	L 0-1	38.0	1288	1427	19.74%	25.80%	54.46%	-0.41	-3.7	0
2004-03-22	Bohemian	L 0-2	32.7	1255	1419	18.24%	24.80%	56.96%	-0.48	-6.5	0
2004-03-22	@ Longford Town	W 2-0	32.7	1419	1255	56.96%	24.80%	18.24%	+0.48	+6.5	3
2004-03-26	Cork City	W 2-1	49.1	1284	1291	34.56%	29.46%	35.98%	-0.02	+5.8	3
2004-03-26	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 1-2	49.1	1291	1284	35.98%	29.46%	34.56%	+0.02	-5.8	3
2004-03-26	St Patrick's Athletic	L 0-1	38.5	1148	1227	25.60%	28.30%	46.09%	-0.23	-4.7	0
2004-03-26	@ Drogheda United	W 1-0	38.5	1227	1148	46.09%	28.30%	25.60%	+0.23	+4.7	4
2004-03-26	Waterford United	D 2-2	64.1	1425	1109	74.18%	15.80%	10.02%	+0.92	-1.7	4
2004-03-26	@ Bohemian	D 2-2	64.1	1109	1425	10.02%	15.80%	74.18%	-0.92	+1.7	4
2004-03-27	Longford Town	L 0-1	38.8	1175	1249	26.18%	28.46%	45.36%	-0.21	-4.8	0
2004-03-27	@ Dublin City	W 1-0	38.8	1249	1175	45.36%	28.46%	26.18%	+0.21	+4.8	3
2004-03-27	Shelbourne	L 0-2	28.4	1164	1431	12.30%	18.88%	68.82%	-0.78	-4.1	1
2004-03-27	@ Derry City	W 2-0	28.4	1431	1164	68.82%	18.88%	12.30%	+0.78	+4.1	6
2004-04-02	Bohemian	L 0-2	31.4	1231	1423	16.33%	23.25%	60.41%	-0.56	-5.7	4
2004-04-02	@ St Patrick's Athletic	W 2-0	31.4	1423	1231	60.41%	23.25%	16.33%	+0.56	+5.7	7
2004-04-02	Drogheda United	W 3-0	25.8	1435	1143	71.77%	17.20%	11.03%	+0.85	+5.2	9
2004-04-02	@ Shelbourne	L 0-3	25.8	1143	1435	11.03%	17.20%	71.77%	-0.85	-5.2	0
2004-04-02	Dublin City	W 2-1	50.5	1110	1170	27.70%	28.80%	43.50%	-0.18	+6.7	7
2004-04-02	@ Waterford United	L 1-2	50.5	1170	1110	43.50%	28.80%	27.70%	+0.18	-6.7	0
2004-04-03	Cork City	D 1-1	53.7	1254	1285	31.22%	29.29%	39.49%	-0.09	+0.3	4
2004-04-03	@ Longford Town	D 1-1	53.7	1285	1254	39.49%	29.29%	31.22%	+0.09	-0.3	4
2004-04-03	Shamrock Rovers	W 1-0	46.3	1159	1290	20.77%	26.39%	52.84%	-0.38	+8.2	4
2004-04-03	@ Derry City	L 0-1	46.3	1290	1159	52.84%	26.39%	20.77%	+0.38	-8.2	3
2004-04-05	Shelbourne	D 1-1	58.5	1429	1440	34.00%	29.45%	36.55%	-0.03	+0.1	8
2004-04-05	@ Bohemian	D 1-1	58.5	1440	1429	36.55%	29.45%	34.00%	+0.03	-0.1	10
2004-04-06	Derry City	W 2-0	38.8	1138	1168	31.41%	29.31%	39.28%	-0.09	+12.3	3
2004-04-06	@ Drogheda United	L 0-2	38.8	1168	1138	39.28%	29.31%	31.41%	+0.09	-12.4	4
2004-04-06	Longford Town	D 1-1	53.7	1282	1254	39.51%	29.29%	31.21%	+0.08	-0.3	4
2004-04-06	@ Shamrock Rovers	D 1-1	53.7	1254	1282	31.21%	29.29%	39.51%	-0.08	+0.3	5
2004-04-06	St Patrick's Athletic	D 1-1	53.5	1164	1226	27.50%	28.75%	43.75%	-0.18	+0.5	1
2004-04-06	@ Dublin City	D 1-1	53.5	1226	1164	43.75%	28.75%	27.50%	+0.18	-0.5	5
2004-04-06	Waterford United	L 2-3	58.6	1285	1117	57.99%	24.36%	17.65%	+0.49	-7.9	4
2004-04-06	@ Cork City	W 3-2	58.6	1117	1285	17.65%	24.36%	57.99%	-0.49	+7.9	10
2004-04-09	Cork City	L 0-2	35.9	1225	1277	28.66%	28.97%	42.37%	-0.15	-9.8	5
2004-04-09	@ St Patrick's Athletic	W 2-0	35.9	1277	1225	42.37%	28.97%	28.66%	+0.15	+9.8	7
2004-04-09	Dublin City	W 2-1	38.7	1440	1164	70.11%	18.15%	11.74%	+0.80	+1.9	13
2004-04-09	@ Shelbourne	L 1-2	38.7	1164	1440	11.74%	18.15%	70.11%	-0.80	-1.9	1
2004-04-09	Longford Town	D 1-1	54.2	1125	1254	20.85%	26.43%	52.72%	-0.38	+1.1	11
2004-04-09	@ Waterford United	D 1-1	54.2	1254	1125	52.72%	26.43%	20.85%	+0.38	-1.1	6
2004-04-09	Shamrock Rovers	W 1-0	46.3	1150	1281	20.69%	26.35%	52.97%	-0.38	+8.2	6
2004-04-09	@ Drogheda United	L 0-1	46.3	1281	1150	52.97%	26.35%	20.69%	+0.38	-8.2	4
2004-04-10	Bohemian	D 0-0	51.7	1155	1429	11.99%	18.48%	69.52%	-0.80	+2.3	5
2004-04-10	@ Derry City	D 0-0	51.7	1429	1155	69.52%	18.48%	11.99%	+0.80	-2.3	9
2004-04-12	Shelbourne	L 0-2	33.7	1287	1442	18.84%	25.22%	55.94%	-0.45	-6.7	7
2004-04-12	@ Cork City	W 2-0	33.7	1442	1287	55.94%	25.22%	18.84%	+0.45	+6.7	16
2004-04-12	Waterford United	W 4-0	30.5	1273	1126	55.45%	25.42%	19.13%	+0.43	+12.9	7
2004-04-12	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 0-4	30.5	1126	1273	19.13%	25.42%	55.45%	-0.43	-12.9	11
2004-04-13	Derry City	L 0-2	38.0	1162	1158	36.23%	29.46%	34.32%	+0.01	-11.6	1
2004-04-13	@ Dublin City	W 2-0	38.0	1158	1162	34.32%	29.46%	36.23%	-0.01	+11.7	8
2004-04-13	Drogheda United	L 0-1	49.4	1427	1158	69.38%	18.56%	12.05%	+0.78	-10.0	9
2004-04-13	@ Bohemian	W 1-0	49.4	1158	1427	12.05%	18.56%	69.38%	-0.78	+10.0	9
2004-04-13	St Patrick's Athletic	L 1-3	45.8	1253	1215	40.94%	29.15%	29.92%	+0.11	-11.0	6
2004-04-13	@ Longford Town	W 3-1	45.8	1215	1253	29.92%	29.15%	40.94%	-0.11	+11.0	8
2004-04-16	Dublin City	W 2-0	36.8	1168	1151	38.07%	29.39%	32.54%	+0.05	+10.8	12
2004-04-16	@ Drogheda United	L 0-2	36.8	1151	1168	32.54%	29.39%	38.07%	-0.05	-10.8	1
2004-04-16	Longford Town	D 0-0	51.5	1449	1242	62.54%	22.22%	15.24%	+0.60	-1.9	17
2004-04-16	@ Shelbourne	D 0-0	51.5	1242	1449	15.24%	22.22%	62.54%	-0.60	+1.9	7
2004-04-16	Shamrock Rovers	D 2-2	62.3	1417	1286	53.40%	26.19%	20.41%	+0.38	-0.8	10
2004-04-16	@ Bohemian	D 2-2	62.3	1286	1417	20.41%	26.19%	53.40%	-0.38	+0.9	8
2004-04-16	Waterford United	L 0-1	45.8	1226	1113	51.15%	26.95%	21.90%	+0.33	-8.0	8
2004-04-16	@ St Patrick's Athletic	W 1-0	45.8	1113	1226	21.90%	26.95%	51.15%	-0.33	+8.0	14
2004-04-17	Cork City	D 1-1	54.1	1169	1280	22.47%	27.21%	50.33%	-0.32	+1.0	9
2004-04-17	@ Derry City	D 1-1	54.1	1280	1169	50.33%	27.21%	22.47%	+0.32	-0.9	8
2004-04-22	Bohemian	W 2-1	55.8	1140	1416	11.89%	18.35%	69.76%	-0.81	+9.5	4
2004-04-22	@ Dublin City	L 1-2	55.8	1416	1140	69.76%	18.35%	11.89%	+0.81	-9.5	10
2004-04-23	Drogheda United	D 0-0	48.5	1279	1179	49.43%	27.47%	23.10%	+0.29	-1.0	9
2004-04-23	@ Cork City	D 0-0	48.5	1179	1279	23.10%	27.47%	49.43%	-0.29	+1.0	13
2004-04-23	Shamrock Rovers	L 1-2	45.8	1218	1287	26.74%	28.59%	44.67%	-0.20	-4.6	8
2004-04-23	@ St Patrick's Athletic	W 2-1	45.8	1287	1218	44.67%	28.59%	26.74%	+0.20	+4.6	11
2004-04-23	Shelbourne	D 1-1	58.0	1121	1447	9.82%	15.51%	74.67%	-0.95	+2.3	15
2004-04-23	@ Waterford United	D 1-1	58.0	1447	1121	74.67%	15.51%	9.82%	+0.95	-2.3	18
2004-04-24	Derry City	W 1-0	38.7	1244	1170	45.90%	28.34%	25.75%	+0.22	+4.8	10
2004-04-24	@ Longford Town	L 0-1	38.7	1170	1244	25.75%	28.34%	45.90%	-0.22	-4.8	9
2004-04-30	Cork City	L 2-3	59.2	1407	1278	53.09%	26.30%	20.61%	+0.37	-7.4	10
2004-04-30	@ Bohemian	W 3-2	59.2	1278	1407	20.61%	26.30%	53.09%	-0.37	+7.4	12
2004-04-30	Dublin City	D 0-0	49.0	1292	1149	54.82%	25.66%	19.52%	+0.41	-1.4	12
2004-04-30	@ Shamrock Rovers	D 0-0	49.0	1149	1292	19.52%	25.66%	54.82%	-0.41	+1.4	5
2004-04-30	Longford Town	L 0-1	39.1	1180	1249	26.73%	28.59%	44.68%	-0.20	-4.9	13
2004-04-30	@ Drogheda United	W 1-0	39.1	1249	1180	44.68%	28.59%	26.73%	+0.20	+4.9	13
2004-04-30	St Patrick's Athletic	W 2-0	30.0	1444	1214	65.28%	20.81%	13.91%	+0.67	+4.7	21
2004-04-30	@ Shelbourne	L 0-2	30.0	1214	1444	13.91%	20.81%	65.28%	-0.67	-4.7	8
2004-05-01	Waterford United	L 0-1	43.5	1165	1123	41.54%	29.08%	29.38%	+0.12	-6.8	9
2004-05-01	@ Derry City	W 1-0	43.5	1123	1165	29.38%	29.08%	41.54%	-0.12	+6.8	18
2004-05-06	Cork City	L 0-1	36.5	1151	1286	20.41%	26.19%	53.40%	-0.39	-3.9	5
2004-05-06	@ Dublin City	W 1-0	36.5	1286	1151	53.40%	26.19%	20.41%	+0.39	+3.9	15
2004-05-07	Longford Town	D 0-0	50.1	1399	1254	55.25%	25.49%	19.25%	+0.43	-1.4	11
2004-05-07	@ Bohemian	D 0-0	50.1	1254	1399	19.25%	25.49%	55.25%	-0.43	+1.4	14
2004-05-07	Shelbourne	W 3-0	43.4	1290	1449	18.55%	25.02%	56.43%	-0.46	+23.6	15
2004-05-07	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 0-3	43.4	1449	1290	56.43%	25.02%	18.55%	+0.46	-23.6	21
2004-05-07	Waterford United	D 0-0	47.8	1175	1130	41.94%	29.03%	29.03%	+0.13	-0.5	14
2004-05-07	@ Drogheda United	D 0-0	47.8	1130	1175	29.03%	29.03%	41.94%	-0.13	+0.5	19
2004-05-08	St Patrick's Athletic	D 0-0	47.9	1159	1209	28.86%	29.00%	42.14%	-0.15	+0.5	10
2004-05-08	@ Derry City	D 0-0	47.9	1209	1159	42.14%	29.00%	28.86%	+0.15	-0.5	9
2004-05-14	Bohemian	L 0-1	32.1	1131	1398	12.30%	18.88%	68.82%	-0.78	-2.2	19
2004-05-14	@ Waterford United	W 1-0	32.1	1398	1131	68.82%	18.88%	12.30%	+0.78	+2.2	14
2004-05-14	Derry City	W 1-0	32.3	1426	1159	69.14%	18.70%	12.16%	+0.78	+2.1	24
2004-05-14	@ Shelbourne	L 0-1	32.3	1159	1426	12.16%	18.70%	69.14%	-0.78	-2.1	10
2004-05-14	Drogheda United	L 0-2	39.2	1208	1175	40.37%	29.21%	30.42%	+0.10	-12.6	9
2004-05-14	@ St Patrick's Athletic	W 2-0	39.2	1175	1208	30.42%	29.21%	40.37%	-0.10	+12.6	17
2004-05-14	Shamrock Rovers	D 1-1	54.1	1289	1314	32.15%	29.36%	38.49%	-0.07	+0.2	16
2004-05-14	@ Cork City	D 1-1	54.1	1314	1289	38.49%	29.36%	32.15%	+0.07	-0.2	16
2004-05-15	Dublin City	D 0-0	48.5	1255	1147	50.48%	27.16%	22.36%	+0.32	-1.1	15
2004-05-15	@ Longford Town	D 0-0	48.5	1147	1255	22.36%	27.16%	50.48%	-0.32	+1.1	6
2004-05-21	Derry City	W 1-0	35.6	1314	1157	56.61%	24.95%	18.44%	+0.46	+3.5	19
2004-05-21	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 0-1	35.6	1157	1314	18.44%	24.95%	56.61%	-0.46	-3.5	10
2004-05-21	Longford Town	W 1-0	40.6	1290	1254	40.62%	29.18%	30.19%	+0.10	+5.4	19
2004-05-21	@ Cork City	L 0-1	40.6	1254	1290	30.19%	29.18%	40.62%	-0.10	-5.4	15
2004-05-28	Bohemian	D 0-0	51.9	1428	1400	39.50%	29.29%	31.21%	+0.08	-0.3	25
2004-05-28	@ Shelbourne	D 0-0	51.9	1400	1428	31.21%	29.29%	39.50%	-0.08	+0.3	15
2004-05-28	Cork City	D 1-1	54.8	1128	1295	18.01%	24.63%	57.35%	-0.49	+1.4	20
2004-05-28	@ Waterford United	D 1-1	54.8	1295	1128	57.35%	24.63%	18.01%	+0.49	-1.4	20
2004-05-28	Dublin City	W 3-1	41.9	1196	1148	42.34%	28.97%	28.68%	+0.14	+8.5	12
2004-05-28	@ St Patrick's Athletic	L 1-3	41.9	1148	1196	28.68%	28.97%	42.34%	-0.14	-8.5	6
2004-05-29	Drogheda United	L 0-2	36.3	1153	1187	30.92%	29.26%	39.82%	-0.10	-10.4	10
2004-05-29	@ Derry City	W 2-0	36.3	1187	1153	39.82%	29.26%	30.92%	+0.10	+10.4	20
2004-05-29	Shamrock Rovers	W 1-0	44.9	1249	1317	26.75%	28.59%	44.66%	-0.20	+7.2	18
2004-05-29	@ Longford Town	L 0-1	44.9	1317	1249	44.66%	28.59%	26.75%	+0.20	-7.2	19
2004-05-31	St Patrick's Athletic	W 3-1	37.0	1400	1204	61.32%	22.82%	15.86%	+0.57	+4.8	18
2004-05-31	@ Bohemian	L 1-3	37.0	1204	1400	15.86%	22.82%	61.32%	-0.57	-4.8	12
2004-05-31	Waterford United	W 3-1	43.5	1139	1130	36.94%	29.44%	33.63%	+0.03	+9.6	9
2004-05-31	@ Dublin City	L 1-3	43.5	1130	1139	33.63%	29.44%	36.94%	-0.03	-9.6	20
2004-06-04	Derry City	W 3-0	26.6	1405	1143	68.67%	18.96%	12.36%	+0.76	+6.0	21
2004-06-04	@ Bohemian	L 0-3	26.6	1143	1405	12.36%	18.96%	68.67%	-0.76	-6.0	10
2004-06-04	Drogheda United	L 1-2	52.6	1310	1198	51.01%	27.00%	22.00%	+0.33	-7.5	19
2004-06-04	@ Shamrock Rovers	W 2-1	52.6	1198	1310	22.00%	27.00%	51.01%	-0.33	+7.5	23
2004-06-04	Shelbourne	L 1-3	34.3	1149	1427	11.79%	18.23%	69.98%	-0.81	-3.3	9
2004-06-04	@ Dublin City	W 3-1	34.3	1427	1149	69.98%	18.23%	11.79%	+0.81	+3.3	28
2004-06-04	St Patrick's Athletic	W 2-1	44.6	1294	1200	48.63%	27.69%	23.68%	+0.27	+4.2	23
2004-06-04	@ Cork City	L 1-2	44.6	1200	1294	23.68%	27.69%	48.63%	-0.27	-4.2	12
2004-06-04	Waterford United	L 0-2	42.3	1256	1120	53.99%	25.98%	20.04%	+0.40	-15.7	18
2004-06-04	@ Longford Town	W 2-0	42.3	1120	1256	20.04%	25.98%	53.99%	-0.40	+15.7	23
2004-06-07	Bohemian	L 0-3	29.0	1205	1411	15.50%	22.48%	62.02%	-0.60	-7.8	23
2004-06-07	@ Drogheda United	W 3-0	29.0	1411	1205	62.02%	22.48%	15.50%	+0.60	+7.8	24
2004-06-08	Cork City	D 2-2	62.7	1431	1298	53.66%	26.10%	20.24%	+0.39	-0.9	29
2004-06-08	@ Shelbourne	D 2-2	62.7	1298	1431	20.24%	26.10%	53.66%	-0.39	+0.9	24
2004-06-08	Dublin City	W 2-1	48.5	1137	1146	34.33%	29.46%	36.22%	-0.02	+5.8	13
2004-06-08	@ Derry City	L 1-2	48.5	1146	1137	36.22%	29.46%	34.33%	+0.02	-5.8	9
2004-06-08	Longford Town	D 1-1	53.5	1195	1240	29.55%	29.10%	41.35%	-0.13	+0.4	13
2004-06-08	@ St Patrick's Athletic	D 1-1	53.5	1240	1195	41.35%	29.10%	29.55%	+0.13	-0.4	19
2004-06-08	Shamrock Rovers	W 3-1	49.3	1136	1302	18.03%	24.64%	57.33%	-0.49	+14.3	26
2004-06-08	@ Waterford United	L 1-3	49.3	1302	1136	57.33%	24.64%	18.03%	+0.49	-14.3	19
2004-06-11	Derry City	W 2-1	42.1	1299	1143	56.49%	24.99%	18.51%	+0.45	+3.3	27
2004-06-11	@ Cork City	L 1-2	42.1	1143	1299	18.51%	24.99%	56.49%	-0.45	-3.3	13
2004-06-11	Drogheda United	D 1-1	53.4	1140	1197	28.01%	28.85%	43.14%	-0.17	+0.5	10
2004-06-11	@ Dublin City	D 1-1	53.4	1197	1140	43.14%	28.85%	28.01%	+0.17	-0.5	24
2004-06-11	Shelbourne	L 0-2	31.6	1240	1430	16.45%	23.36%	60.19%	-0.56	-5.8	19
2004-06-11	@ Longford Town	W 2-0	31.6	1430	1240	60.19%	23.36%	16.45%	+0.56	+5.8	32
2004-06-11	St Patrick's Athletic	L 0-1	39.9	1150	1196	29.44%	29.09%	41.47%	-0.13	-5.3	26
2004-06-11	@ Waterford United	W 1-0	39.9	1196	1150	41.47%	29.09%	29.44%	+0.13	+5.3	16
2004-06-12	Bohemian	W 2-1	54.5	1288	1419	20.73%	26.37%	52.90%	-0.38	+7.7	22
2004-06-12	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 1-2	54.5	1419	1288	52.90%	26.37%	20.73%	+0.38	-7.8	24
2004-06-14	Shelbourne	D 2-2	63.2	1197	1436	13.69%	20.56%	65.74%	-0.70	+1.4	25
2004-06-14	@ Drogheda United	D 2-2	63.2	1436	1197	65.74%	20.56%	13.69%	+0.70	-1.4	33
2004-06-18	Dublin City	L 2-4	54.9	1411	1140	69.60%	18.44%	11.96%	+0.79	-14.7	24
2004-06-18	@ Bohemian	W 4-2	54.9	1140	1411	11.96%	18.44%	69.60%	-0.79	+14.7	13
2004-06-18	St Patrick's Athletic	L 1-2	52.1	1296	1201	48.72%	27.67%	23.62%	+0.28	-7.3	22
2004-06-18	@ Shamrock Rovers	W 2-1	52.1	1201	1296	23.62%	27.67%	48.72%	-0.28	+7.3	19
2004-06-18	Waterford United	W 1-0	31.6	1434	1145	71.50%	17.36%	11.14%	+0.84	+1.9	36
2004-06-18	@ Shelbourne	L 0-1	31.6	1145	1434	11.14%	17.36%	71.50%	-0.84	-1.9	26
2004-06-19	Longford Town	D 0-0	48.2	1140	1234	24.05%	27.82%	48.13%	-0.27	+0.9	14
2004-06-19	@ Derry City	D 0-0	48.2	1234	1140	48.13%	27.82%	24.05%	+0.27	-0.9	20
2004-06-22	Bohemian	L 0-1	39.6	1302	1397	24.01%	27.81%	48.18%	-0.28	-4.5	27
2004-06-22	@ Cork City	W 1-0	39.6	1397	1302	48.18%	27.81%	24.01%	+0.28	+4.5	27
2004-06-24	Shamrock Rovers	L 0-4	31.2	1155	1289	20.51%	26.25%	53.24%	-0.39	-13.8	13
2004-06-24	@ Dublin City	W 4-0	31.2	1289	1155	53.24%	26.25%	20.51%	+0.39	+13.9	25
2004-06-25	Derry City	L 0-2	37.8	1143	1141	35.89%	29.46%	34.65%	+0.01	-11.6	26
2004-06-25	@ Waterford United	W 2-0	37.8	1141	1143	34.65%	29.46%	35.89%	-0.01	+11.6	17
2004-06-25	Shelbourne	L 1-2	40.7	1208	1436	14.27%	21.21%	64.52%	-0.66	-2.4	19
2004-06-25	@ St Patrick's Athletic	W 2-1	40.7	1436	1208	64.52%	21.21%	14.27%	+0.66	+2.5	39
2004-06-26	Drogheda United	D 0-0	47.9	1233	1198	40.50%	29.20%	30.30%	+0.10	-0.4	21
2004-06-26	@ Longford Town	D 0-0	47.9	1198	1233	30.30%	29.20%	40.50%	-0.10	+0.4	26
2004-07-02	Derry City	L 0-1	43.9	1206	1152	43.15%	28.85%	28.00%	+0.16	-7.0	19
2004-07-02	@ St Patrick's Athletic	W 1-0	43.9	1152	1206	28.00%	28.85%	43.15%	-0.16	+7.0	20
2004-07-02	Drogheda United	L 1-3	41.2	1131	1199	26.90%	28.63%	44.47%	-0.20	-8.1	26
2004-07-02	@ Waterford United	W 3-1	41.2	1199	1131	44.47%	28.63%	26.90%	+0.20	+8.1	29
2004-07-02	Shamrock Rovers	D 1-1	56.6	1439	1302	54.07%	25.95%	19.98%	+0.40	-1.2	40
2004-07-02	@ Shelbourne	D 1-1	56.6	1302	1439	19.98%	25.95%	54.07%	-0.40	+1.2	26
2004-07-03	Bohemian	L 0-1	36.1	1233	1401	17.89%	24.54%	57.58%	-0.49	-3.4	21
2004-07-03	@ Longford Town	W 1-0	36.1	1401	1233	57.58%	24.54%	17.89%	+0.49	+3.4	30
2004-07-08	Longford Town	W 2-1	51.5	1141	1229	24.67%	28.03%	47.31%	-0.26	+7.1	16
2004-07-08	@ Dublin City	L 1-2	51.5	1229	1141	47.31%	28.03%	24.67%	+0.26	-7.1	21
2004-07-08	Shelbourne	D 0-0	51.8	1159	1437	11.80%	18.23%	69.97%	-0.81	+2.3	21
2004-07-08	@ Derry City	D 0-0	51.8	1437	1159	69.97%	18.23%	11.80%	+0.81	-2.3	41
2004-07-09	St Patrick's Athletic	L 0-2	38.2	1207	1199	36.67%	29.44%	33.89%	+0.02	-11.8	29
2004-07-09	@ Drogheda United	W 2-0	38.2	1199	1207	33.89%	29.44%	36.67%	-0.02	+11.8	22
2004-07-09	Waterford United	D 2-2	63.4	1404	1123	70.65%	17.85%	11.50%	+0.82	-1.6	31
2004-07-09	@ Bohemian	D 2-2	63.4	1123	1404	11.50%	17.85%	70.65%	-0.82	+1.6	27
2004-07-15	Dublin City	W 3-2	54.1	1125	1148	32.29%	29.37%	38.33%	-0.07	+5.8	30
2004-07-15	@ Waterford United	L 2-3	54.1	1148	1125	38.33%	29.37%	32.29%	+0.07	-5.8	16
2004-07-17	Shamrock Rovers	W 1-0	46.6	1161	1304	19.83%	25.85%	54.32%	-0.41	+8.4	24
2004-07-17	@ Derry City	L 0-1	46.6	1304	1161	54.32%	25.85%	19.83%	+0.41	-8.4	26
2004-07-18	Drogheda United	L 0-2	45.3	1435	1195	66.32%	20.25%	13.42%	+0.70	-18.3	41
2004-07-18	@ Shelbourne	W 2-0	45.3	1195	1435	13.42%	20.25%	66.32%	-0.70	+18.3	32
2004-07-29	St Patrick's Athletic	L 1-2	45.5	1142	1211	26.80%	28.60%	44.60%	-0.20	-4.6	16
2004-07-29	@ Dublin City	W 2-1	45.5	1211	1142	44.60%	28.60%	26.80%	+0.20	+4.6	25
2004-07-30	Derry City	W 4-0	34.6	1213	1170	41.71%	29.06%	29.24%	+0.13	+18.9	35
2004-07-30	@ Drogheda United	L 0-4	34.6	1170	1213	29.24%	29.06%	41.71%	-0.13	-18.9	24
2004-07-30	Waterford United	W 2-0	31.1	1297	1131	57.85%	24.42%	17.73%	+0.49	+6.3	30
2004-07-30	@ Cork City	L 0-2	31.1	1131	1297	17.73%	24.42%	57.85%	-0.49	-6.3	30
2004-08-02	Cork City	W 2-0	40.8	1232	1304	26.40%	28.51%	45.09%	-0.21	+13.7	38
2004-08-02	@ Drogheda United	L 0-2	40.8	1304	1232	45.09%	28.51%	26.40%	+0.21	-13.7	30
2004-08-02	Longford Town	W 2-0	34.9	1295	1222	45.81%	28.36%	25.83%	+0.21	+9.0	29
2004-08-02	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 0-2	34.9	1222	1295	25.83%	28.36%	45.81%	-0.21	-9.0	21
2004-08-05	Bohemian	D 0-0	51.1	1151	1403	13.04%	19.80%	67.16%	-0.73	+2.2	25
2004-08-05	@ Derry City	D 0-0	51.1	1403	1151	67.16%	19.80%	13.04%	+0.73	-2.2	32
2004-08-06	Cork City	L 0-3	33.3	1215	1290	26.06%	28.42%	45.52%	-0.22	-13.2	25
2004-08-06	@ St Patrick's Athletic	W 3-0	33.3	1290	1215	45.52%	28.42%	26.06%	+0.22	+13.2	33
2004-08-06	Longford Town	L 0-1	38.1	1124	1213	24.60%	28.00%	47.40%	-0.26	-4.6	30
2004-08-06	@ Waterford United	W 1-0	38.1	1213	1124	47.40%	28.00%	24.60%	+0.26	+4.6	24
2004-08-06	Shamrock Rovers	W 3-0	38.8	1246	1304	27.90%	28.83%	43.27%	-0.17	+19.3	41
2004-08-06	@ Drogheda United	L 0-3	38.8	1304	1246	43.27%	28.83%	27.90%	+0.17	-19.3	29
2004-08-12	Derry City	L 0-2	37.1	1138	1153	33.39%	29.43%	37.18%	-0.04	-11.0	16
2004-08-12	@ Dublin City	W 2-0	37.1	1153	1138	37.18%	29.43%	33.39%	+0.04	+11.0	28
2004-08-13	Drogheda United	D 0-0	50.1	1401	1265	53.99%	25.98%	20.03%	+0.40	-1.3	33
2004-08-13	@ Bohemian	D 0-0	50.1	1265	1401	20.03%	25.98%	53.99%	-0.40	+1.3	42
2004-08-13	Waterford United	L 1-2	53.6	1285	1120	57.64%	24.51%	17.85%	+0.48	-8.3	29
2004-08-13	@ Shamrock Rovers	W 2-1	53.6	1120	1285	17.85%	24.51%	57.64%	-0.48	+8.3	33
2004-08-14	Shelbourne	L 0-1	39.2	1303	1417	22.22%	27.10%	50.68%	-0.33	-4.2	33
2004-08-14	@ Cork City	W 1-0	39.2	1417	1303	50.68%	27.10%	22.22%	+0.33	+4.2	44
2004-08-14	St Patrick's Athletic	W 2-1	47.6	1218	1202	37.79%	29.40%	32.81%	+0.05	+5.4	27
2004-08-14	@ Longford Town	L 1-2	47.6	1202	1218	32.81%	29.40%	37.79%	-0.05	-5.4	25
2004-08-20	Dublin City	D 1-1	54.9	1299	1127	58.50%	24.14%	17.37%	+0.50	-1.5	34
2004-08-20	@ Cork City	D 1-1	54.9	1127	1299	17.37%	24.14%	58.50%	-0.50	+1.5	17
2004-08-27	Dublin City	W 2-1	42.6	1266	1128	54.30%	25.86%	19.84%	+0.40	+3.5	45
2004-08-27	@ Drogheda United	L 1-2	42.6	1128	1266	19.84%	25.86%	54.30%	-0.40	-3.5	17
2004-08-27	Shamrock Rovers	W 3-2	49.6	1399	1277	52.35%	26.56%	21.09%	+0.36	+3.6	36
2004-08-27	@ Bohemian	L 2-3	49.6	1277	1399	21.09%	26.56%	52.35%	-0.36	-3.6	29
2004-08-27	Waterford United	W 2-1	45.3	1197	1128	45.19%	28.49%	26.32%	+0.20	+4.6	28
2004-08-27	@ St Patrick's Athletic	L 1-2	45.3	1128	1197	26.32%	28.49%	45.19%	-0.20	-4.6	33
2004-09-01	Shelbourne	W 3-1	51.8	1124	1421	10.96%	17.11%	71.92%	-0.87	+16.7	36
2004-09-01	@ Waterford United	L 1-3	51.8	1421	1124	71.92%	17.11%	10.96%	+0.87	-16.7	44
2004-09-02	Bohemian	D 0-0	51.5	1125	1403	11.81%	18.24%	69.95%	-0.81	+2.3	18
2004-09-02	@ Dublin City	D 0-0	51.5	1403	1125	69.95%	18.24%	11.81%	+0.81	-2.3	37
2004-09-03	Shamrock Rovers	W 2-0	40.6	1201	1273	26.38%	28.50%	45.12%	-0.21	+13.7	31
2004-09-03	@ St Patrick's Athletic	L 0-2	40.6	1273	1201	45.12%	28.50%	26.38%	+0.21	-13.7	29
2004-09-04	Derry City	W 3-0	33.5	1223	1164	43.88%	28.73%	27.39%	+0.17	+13.7	30
2004-09-04	@ Longford Town	L 0-3	33.5	1164	1223	27.39%	28.73%	43.88%	-0.17	-13.7	28
2004-09-06	Dublin City	W 4-1	31.0	1404	1127	70.25%	18.07%	11.68%	+0.81	+4.7	47
2004-09-06	@ Shelbourne	L 1-4	31.0	1127	1404	11.68%	18.07%	70.25%	-0.81	-4.7	18
2004-09-10	Bohemian	L 1-2	41.9	1215	1401	16.74%	23.61%	59.65%	-0.54	-3.0	31
2004-09-10	@ St Patrick's Athletic	W 2-1	41.9	1401	1215	59.65%	23.61%	16.74%	+0.54	+3.0	40
2004-09-11	Cork City	D 1-1	53.8	1259	1298	30.36%	29.20%	40.44%	-0.11	+0.3	30
2004-09-11	@ Shamrock Rovers	D 1-1	53.8	1298	1259	40.44%	29.20%	30.36%	+0.11	-0.3	35
2004-09-17	Cork City	W 1-0	39.0	1404	1297	50.23%	27.24%	22.53%	+0.31	+4.2	43
2004-09-17	@ Bohemian	L 0-1	39.0	1297	1404	22.53%	27.24%	50.23%	-0.31	-4.2	35
2004-09-17	Dublin City	L 1-3	48.7	1260	1122	54.21%	25.90%	19.90%	+0.40	-13.7	30
2004-09-17	@ Shamrock Rovers	W 3-1	48.7	1122	1260	19.90%	25.90%	54.21%	-0.40	+13.7	21
2004-09-17	Longford Town	L 0-1	43.5	1270	1237	40.26%	29.22%	30.52%	+0.10	-6.7	45
2004-09-17	@ Drogheda United	W 1-0	43.5	1237	1270	30.52%	29.22%	40.26%	-0.10	+6.7	33
2004-09-20	St Patrick's Athletic	W 3-1	37.1	1409	1212	61.43%	22.77%	15.80%	+0.57	+4.8	50
2004-09-20	@ Shelbourne	L 1-3	37.1	1212	1409	15.80%	22.77%	61.43%	-0.57	-4.8	31
2004-09-23	Cork City	L 0-1	35.6	1136	1293	18.70%	25.13%	56.17%	-0.46	-3.5	21
2004-09-23	@ Dublin City	W 1-0	35.6	1293	1136	56.17%	25.13%	18.70%	+0.46	+3.5	38
2004-09-23	St Patrick's Athletic	D 1-1	53.4	1150	1207	28.09%	28.87%	43.04%	-0.17	+0.5	29
2004-09-23	@ Derry City	D 1-1	53.4	1207	1150	43.04%	28.87%	28.09%	+0.17	-0.5	32
2004-09-24	Longford Town	D 1-1	55.9	1408	1244	57.54%	24.55%	17.91%	+0.48	-1.4	44
2004-09-24	@ Bohemian	D 1-1	55.9	1244	1408	17.91%	24.55%	57.54%	-0.48	+1.4	34
2004-09-24	Shelbourne	L 1-4	35.7	1246	1414	17.94%	24.58%	57.48%	-0.49	-7.8	30
2004-09-24	@ Shamrock Rovers	W 4-1	35.7	1414	1246	57.48%	24.58%	17.94%	+0.49	+7.8	53
2004-09-24	Waterford United	L 1-2	52.6	1263	1140	52.39%	26.55%	21.06%	+0.36	-7.7	45
2004-09-24	@ Drogheda United	W 2-1	52.6	1140	1263	21.06%	26.55%	52.39%	-0.36	+7.7	39
2004-10-01	Shamrock Rovers	W 1-0	39.6	1297	1238	43.78%	28.75%	27.47%	+0.17	+5.0	41
2004-10-01	@ Cork City	L 0-1	39.6	1238	1297	27.47%	28.75%	43.78%	-0.17	-5.0	30
2004-10-04	Derry City	L 0-2	45.3	1421	1151	69.57%	18.46%	11.97%	+0.79	-18.9	53
2004-10-04	@ Shelbourne	W 2-0	45.3	1151	1421	11.97%	18.46%	69.57%	-0.79	+18.9	32
2004-10-08	Derry City	D 0-0	48.0	1233	1170	44.49%	28.62%	26.89%	+0.19	-0.7	31
2004-10-08	@ Shamrock Rovers	D 0-0	48.0	1170	1233	26.89%	28.62%	44.49%	-0.19	+0.7	33
2004-10-08	Shelbourne	L 2-5	38.4	1256	1403	19.44%	25.62%	54.94%	-0.43	-7.3	45
2004-10-08	@ Drogheda United	W 5-2	38.4	1403	1256	54.94%	25.62%	19.44%	+0.43	+7.3	56
2004-10-08	St Patrick's Athletic	D 2-2	62.5	1406	1207	61.75%	22.61%	15.64%	+0.58	-1.2	45
2004-10-08	@ Bohemian	D 2-2	62.5	1207	1406	15.64%	22.61%	61.75%	-0.58	+1.2	33
2004-10-11	Longford Town	W 2-0	35.7	1302	1245	43.56%	28.79%	27.65%	+0.17	+9.5	44
2004-10-11	@ Cork City	L 0-2	35.7	1245	1302	27.65%	28.79%	43.56%	-0.17	-9.5	34
2004-10-11	Shelbourne	W 2-0	41.7	1405	1410	34.86%	29.46%	35.67%	-0.01	+11.5	48
2004-10-11	@ Bohemian	L 0-2	41.7	1410	1405	35.67%	29.46%	34.86%	+0.01	-11.5	56
2004-10-11	Waterford United	L 1-3	43.4	1133	1148	33.37%	29.43%	37.20%	-0.04	-9.5	21
2004-10-11	@ Dublin City	W 3-1	43.4	1148	1133	37.20%	29.43%	33.37%	+0.04	+9.5	42
2004-10-14	Drogheda United	W 1-0	44.7	1170	1248	25.74%	28.34%	45.91%	-0.23	+7.4	36
2004-10-14	@ Derry City	L 0-1	44.7	1248	1170	45.91%	28.34%	25.74%	+0.23	-7.4	45
2004-10-15	Bohemian	D 1-1	57.1	1398	1417	32.98%	29.41%	37.61%	-0.05	+0.1	57
2004-10-15	@ Shelbourne	D 1-1	57.1	1417	1398	37.61%	29.41%	32.98%	+0.05	-0.1	49
2004-10-15	Cork City	L 1-4	35.1	1157	1311	18.95%	25.29%	55.76%	-0.45	-8.2	42
2004-10-15	@ Waterford United	W 4-1	35.1	1311	1157	55.76%	25.29%	18.95%	+0.45	+8.2	47
2004-10-15	Dublin City	D 2-2	59.9	1208	1123	47.40%	28.00%	24.60%	+0.25	-0.6	34
2004-10-15	@ St Patrick's Athletic	D 2-2	59.9	1123	1208	24.60%	28.00%	47.40%	-0.25	+0.6	22
2004-10-16	Shamrock Rovers	D 1-1	53.4	1235	1233	35.95%	29.46%	34.59%	+0.01	-0.0	35
2004-10-16	@ Longford Town	D 1-1	53.4	1233	1235	34.59%	29.46%	35.95%	-0.01	+0.0	32
2004-10-18	Bohemian	D 1-1	57.0	1149	1417	12.30%	18.88%	68.82%	-0.78	+2.0	43
2004-10-18	@ Waterford United	D 1-1	57.0	1417	1149	68.82%	18.88%	12.30%	+0.78	-2.0	50
2004-10-19	Cork City	L 0-2	34.8	1235	1319	25.09%	28.15%	46.76%	-0.25	-8.8	35
2004-10-19	@ Longford Town	W 2-0	34.8	1319	1235	46.76%	28.15%	25.09%	+0.25	+8.8	50
2004-10-21	Shelbourne	L 2-3	43.4	1124	1399	11.95%	18.43%	69.62%	-0.80	-1.9	22
2004-10-21	@ Dublin City	W 3-2	43.4	1399	1124	69.62%	18.43%	11.95%	+0.80	+1.9	60
2004-10-22	Derry City	L 0-1	49.0	1415	1178	65.93%	20.46%	13.61%	+0.69	-9.7	50
2004-10-22	@ Bohemian	W 1-0	49.0	1178	1415	13.61%	20.46%	65.93%	-0.69	+9.7	39
2004-10-22	Drogheda United	L 1-2	48.2	1233	1241	34.37%	29.46%	36.17%	-0.02	-5.6	32
2004-10-22	@ Shamrock Rovers	W 2-1	48.2	1241	1233	36.17%	29.46%	34.37%	+0.02	+5.6	48
2004-10-22	St Patrick's Athletic	W 3-0	31.5	1328	1207	52.11%	26.64%	21.25%	+0.35	+11.0	53
2004-10-22	@ Cork City	L 0-3	31.5	1207	1328	21.25%	26.64%	52.11%	-0.35	-11.0	34
2004-10-25	Drogheda United	D 1-1	53.5	1196	1246	28.89%	29.00%	42.11%	-0.15	+0.4	35
2004-10-25	@ St Patrick's Athletic	D 1-1	53.5	1246	1196	42.11%	29.00%	28.89%	+0.15	-0.4	49
2004-10-26	Cork City	L 0-1	36.1	1188	1339	19.10%	25.40%	55.50%	-0.44	-3.6	39
2004-10-26	@ Derry City	W 1-0	36.1	1339	1188	55.50%	25.40%	19.10%	+0.44	+3.6	56
2004-10-29	Bohemian	L 0-3	30.9	1246	1405	18.57%	25.03%	56.40%	-0.46	-9.6	49
2004-10-29	@ Drogheda United	W 3-0	30.9	1405	1246	56.40%	25.03%	18.57%	+0.46	+9.6	53
2004-10-29	Cork City	D 0-0	50.3	1400	1343	43.70%	28.76%	27.53%	+0.17	-0.6	61
2004-10-29	@ Shelbourne	D 0-0	50.3	1343	1400	27.53%	28.76%	43.70%	-0.17	+0.6	57
2004-10-29	Longford Town	W 1-0	43.0	1197	1227	31.44%	29.31%	39.25%	-0.09	+6.5	38
2004-10-29	@ St Patrick's Athletic	L 0-1	43.0	1227	1197	39.25%	29.31%	31.44%	+0.09	-6.5	35
2004-10-30	Dublin City	L 2-3	55.7	1184	1122	44.32%	28.66%	27.03%	+0.18	-6.4	39
2004-10-30	@ Derry City	W 3-2	55.7	1122	1184	27.03%	28.66%	44.32%	-0.18	+6.4	25
2004-10-31	Shamrock Rovers	W 2-0	40.5	1151	1227	25.95%	28.40%	45.65%	-0.22	+13.8	46
2004-10-31	@ Waterford United	L 0-2	40.5	1227	1151	45.65%	28.40%	25.95%	+0.22	-13.8	32
2004-11-01	Longford Town	W 3-1	37.7	1400	1220	59.41%	23.72%	16.87%	+0.52	+5.2	64
2004-11-01	@ Shelbourne	L 1-3	37.7	1220	1400	16.87%	23.72%	59.41%	-0.52	-5.1	35
2004-11-02	Waterford United	W 1-0	41.1	1178	1165	37.33%	29.42%	33.24%	+0.04	+5.8	42
2004-11-02	@ Derry City	L 0-1	41.1	1165	1178	33.24%	29.42%	37.33%	-0.04	-5.8	46
2004-11-04	Drogheda United	L 2-3	48.9	1128	1236	22.71%	27.31%	49.99%	-0.32	-3.8	25
2004-11-04	@ Dublin City	W 3-2	48.9	1236	1128	49.99%	27.31%	22.71%	+0.32	+3.8	52
2004-11-05	Bohemian	L 0-1	34.9	1213	1414	15.78%	22.75%	61.48%	-0.59	-2.9	32
2004-11-05	@ Shamrock Rovers	W 1-0	34.9	1414	1213	61.48%	22.75%	15.78%	+0.59	+2.9	56
2004-11-05	Derry City	D 1-1	55.0	1343	1183	57.02%	24.78%	18.21%	+0.47	-1.4	58
2004-11-05	@ Cork City	D 1-1	55.0	1183	1343	18.21%	24.78%	57.02%	-0.47	+1.4	43
2004-11-05	St Patrick's Athletic	L 0-2	35.9	1159	1203	29.62%	29.11%	41.27%	-0.13	-10.0	46
2004-11-05	@ Waterford United	W 2-0	35.9	1203	1159	41.27%	29.11%	29.62%	+0.13	+10.1	41
2004-11-06	Shelbourne	W 4-1	47.6	1215	1405	16.46%	23.37%	60.17%	-0.55	+20.9	38
2004-11-06	@ Longford Town	L 1-4	47.6	1405	1215	60.17%	23.37%	16.46%	+0.55	-20.9	64
2004-11-08	Drogheda United	W 3-2	49.6	1342	1240	49.63%	27.41%	22.96%	+0.30	+3.8	61
2004-11-08	@ Cork City	L 2-3	49.6	1240	1342	22.96%	27.41%	49.63%	-0.30	-3.8	52
2004-11-09	Dublin City	W 2-0	33.0	1236	1124	50.90%	27.03%	22.07%	+0.33	+7.8	41
2004-11-09	@ Longford Town	L 0-2	33.0	1124	1236	22.07%	27.03%	50.90%	-0.33	-7.8	25
2004-11-12	Cork City	L 1-3	40.2	1236	1346	22.61%	27.27%	50.13%	-0.32	-6.9	52
2004-11-12	@ Drogheda United	W 3-1	40.2	1346	1236	50.13%	27.27%	22.61%	+0.32	+6.9	64
2004-11-12	Dublin City	W 4-0	25.7	1417	1117	72.64%	16.70%	10.66%	+0.88	+6.5	59
2004-11-12	@ Bohemian	L 0-4	25.7	1117	1417	10.66%	16.70%	72.64%	-0.88	-6.5	25
2004-11-12	St Patrick's Athletic	W 3-1	44.2	1210	1213	35.10%	29.46%	35.44%	-0.01	+9.9	35
2004-11-12	@ Shamrock Rovers	L 1-3	44.2	1213	1210	35.44%	29.46%	35.10%	+0.01	-9.9	41
2004-11-12	Waterford United	W 2-1	39.6	1384	1149	65.73%	20.57%	13.70%	+0.69	+2.3	67
2004-11-12	@ Shelbourne	L 1-2	39.6	1149	1384	13.70%	20.57%	65.73%	-0.69	-2.3	46
2004-11-13	Longford Town	D 0-0	48.0	1185	1244	27.84%	28.82%	43.34%	-0.17	+0.6	44
2004-11-13	@ Derry City	D 0-0	48.0	1244	1185	43.34%	28.82%	27.84%	+0.17	-0.6	42
2004-11-17	Waterford United	D 1-1	53.8	1243	1147	48.91%	27.62%	23.48%	+0.28	-0.9	43
2004-11-17	@ Longford Town	D 1-1	53.8	1147	1243	23.48%	27.62%	48.91%	-0.28	+0.9	47
2004-11-19	Bohemian	D 1-1	56.5	1353	1424	26.46%	28.53%	45.01%	-0.21	+0.6	65
2004-11-19	@ Cork City	D 1-1	56.5	1424	1353	45.01%	28.53%	26.46%	+0.21	-0.6	60
2004-11-19	Derry City	W 1-0	43.2	1148	1185	30.44%	29.21%	40.35%	-0.11	+6.7	50
2004-11-19	@ Waterford United	L 0-1	43.2	1185	1148	40.35%	29.21%	30.44%	+0.11	-6.7	44
2004-11-19	Shelbourne	D 0-0	50.1	1203	1386	16.92%	23.77%	59.32%	-0.53	+1.7	42
2004-11-19	@ St Patrick's Athletic	D 0-0	50.1	1386	1203	59.32%	23.77%	16.92%	+0.53	-1.7	68
2004-11-21	Shamrock Rovers	L 1-2	43.8	1110	1220	22.53%	27.24%	50.23%	-0.32	-4.0	25
2004-11-21	@ Dublin City	W 2-1	43.8	1220	1110	50.23%	27.24%	22.53%	+0.32	+4.0	38
2004-11-22	Drogheda United	W 3-1	43.6	1242	1229	37.37%	29.42%	33.21%	+0.04	+9.5	46
2004-11-22	@ Longford Town	L 1-3	43.6	1229	1242	33.21%	29.42%	37.37%	-0.04	-9.5	52

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2004-09-01	10.96%	@ Waterford United	1124	3	Shelbourne	1421	1
2	2004-04-22	11.89%	@ Dublin City	1140	2	Bohemian	1416	1
3	2004-06-18	11.96%	Dublin City	1140	4	@ Bohemian	1411	2
4	2004-10-04	11.97%	Derry City	1151	2	@ Shelbourne	1421	0
5	2004-04-13	12.05%	Drogheda United	1158	1	@ Bohemian	1427	0
6	2004-07-18	13.42%	Drogheda United	1195	2	@ Shelbourne	1435	0
7	2004-10-22	13.61%	Derry City	1178	1	@ Bohemian	1415	0
8	2004-11-06	16.46%	@ Longford Town	1215	4	Shelbourne	1405	1
9	2004-04-06	17.65%	Waterford United	1117	3	@ Cork City	1285	2
10	2004-08-13	17.85%	Waterford United	1120	2	@ Shamrock Rovers	1285	1
11	2004-06-08	18.03%	@ Waterford United	1136	3	Shamrock Rovers	1302	1
12	2004-05-07	18.55%	@ Shamrock Rovers	1290	3	Shelbourne	1449	0
13	2004-07-17	19.83%	@ Derry City	1161	1	Shamrock Rovers	1304	0
14	2004-09-17	19.90%	Dublin City	1122	3	@ Shamrock Rovers	1260	1
15	2004-06-04	20.04%	Waterford United	1120	2	@ Longford Town	1256	0
16	2004-04-30	20.61%	Cork City	1278	3	@ Bohemian	1407	2
17	2004-04-09	20.69%	@ Drogheda United	1150	1	Shamrock Rovers	1281	0
18	2004-06-12	20.73%	@ Shamrock Rovers	1288	2	Bohemian	1419	1
19	2004-04-03	20.77%	@ Derry City	1159	1	Shamrock Rovers	1290	0
20	2004-09-24	21.06%	Waterford United	1140	2	@ Drogheda United	1263	1
21	2004-04-16	21.90%	Waterford United	1113	1	@ St Patrick's Athletic	1226	0
22	2004-06-04	22.00%	Drogheda United	1198	2	@ Shamrock Rovers	1310	1
23	2004-06-18	23.62%	St Patrick's Athletic	1201	2	@ Shamrock Rovers	1296	1
24	2004-07-08	24.67%	@ Dublin City	1141	2	Longford Town	1229	1
25	2004-10-14	25.74%	@ Derry City	1170	1	Drogheda United	1248	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2004-05-07	23.64	@ Shamrock Rovers	3	1290	18.55%	Shelbourne	0	1449	56.43%	25.02%
2	2004-11-06	20.92	@ Longford Town	4	1215	16.46%	Shelbourne	1	1405	60.17%	23.37%
3	2004-08-06	19.28	@ Drogheda United	3	1246	27.90%	Shamrock Rovers	0	1304	43.27%	28.83%
4	2004-10-04	18.92	Derry City	2	1151	11.97%	@ Shelbourne	0	1421	69.57%	18.46%
5	2004-07-30	18.88	@ Drogheda United	4	1213	41.71%	Derry City	0	1170	29.24%	29.06%
6	2004-07-18	18.32	Drogheda United	2	1195	13.42%	@ Shelbourne	0	1435	66.32%	20.25%
7	2004-09-01	16.74	@ Waterford United	3	1124	10.96%	Shelbourne	1	1421	71.92%	17.11%
8	2004-06-04	15.73	Waterford United	2	1120	20.04%	@ Longford Town	0	1256	53.99%	25.98%
9	2004-06-18	14.66	Dublin City	4	1140	11.96%	@ Bohemian	2	1411	69.60%	18.44%
10	2004-06-08	14.26	@ Waterford United	3	1136	18.03%	Shamrock Rovers	1	1302	57.33%	24.64%
11	2004-06-24	13.85	Shamrock Rovers	4	1289	53.24%	@ Dublin City	0	1155	20.51%	26.25%
12	2004-10-31	13.82	@ Waterford United	2	1151	25.95%	Shamrock Rovers	0	1227	45.65%	28.40%
13	2004-09-04	13.72	@ Longford Town	3	1223	43.88%	Derry City	0	1164	27.39%	28.73%
14	2004-09-03	13.71	@ St Patrick's Athletic	2	1201	26.38%	Shamrock Rovers	0	1273	45.12%	28.50%
15	2004-08-02	13.69	@ Drogheda United	2	1232	26.40%	Cork City	0	1304	45.09%	28.51%
16	2004-09-17	13.67	Dublin City	3	1122	19.90%	@ Shamrock Rovers	1	1260	54.21%	25.90%
17	2004-08-06	13.17	Cork City	3	1290	45.52%	@ St Patrick's Athletic	0	1215	26.06%	28.42%
18	2004-04-12	12.91	@ Shamrock Rovers	4	1273	55.45%	Waterford United	0	1126	19.13%	25.42%
19	2004-05-14	12.60	Drogheda United	2	1175	30.42%	@ St Patrick's Athletic	0	1208	40.37%	29.21%
20	2004-04-06	12.35	@ Drogheda United	2	1138	31.41%	Derry City	0	1168	39.28%	29.31%
21	2004-07-09	11.75	St Patrick's Athletic	2	1199	33.89%	@ Drogheda United	0	1207	36.67%	29.44%
22	2004-04-13	11.65	Derry City	2	1158	34.32%	@ Dublin City	0	1162	36.23%	29.46%
23	2004-06-25	11.58	Derry City	2	1141	34.65%	@ Waterford United	0	1143	35.89%	29.46%
24	2004-10-11	11.53	@ Bohemian	2	1405	34.86%	Shelbourne	0	1410	35.67%	29.46%
25	2004-04-13	11.03	St Patrick's Athletic	3	1215	29.92%	@ Longford Town	1	1253	40.94%	29.15%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2004-03-26	64.1	@ Bohemian	2	1425	74.18%	Waterford United	2	1109	10.02%	15.80%
2	2004-07-09	63.4	@ Bohemian	2	1404	70.65%	Waterford United	2	1123	11.50%	17.85%
3	2004-06-14	63.2	@ Drogheda United	2	1197	13.69%	Shelbourne	2	1436	65.74%	20.56%
4	2004-06-08	62.7	@ Shelbourne	2	1431	53.66%	Cork City	2	1298	20.24%	26.10%
5	2004-10-08	62.5	@ Bohemian	2	1406	61.75%	St Patrick's Athletic	2	1207	15.64%	22.61%
6	2004-04-16	62.3	@ Bohemian	2	1417	53.40%	Shamrock Rovers	2	1286	20.41%	26.19%
7	2004-10-15	59.9	@ St Patrick's Athletic	2	1208	47.40%	Dublin City	2	1123	24.60%	28.00%
8	2004-04-30	59.2	Cork City	3	1278	20.61%	@ Bohemian	2	1407	53.09%	26.30%
9	2004-04-06	58.6	Waterford United	3	1117	17.65%	@ Cork City	2	1285	57.99%	24.36%
10	2004-04-05	58.5	@ Bohemian	1	1429	34.00%	Shelbourne	1	1440	36.55%	29.45%
11	2004-04-23	58.0	@ Waterford United	1	1121	9.82%	Shelbourne	1	1447	74.67%	15.51%
12	2004-10-15	57.1	@ Shelbourne	1	1398	32.98%	Bohemian	1	1417	37.61%	29.41%
13	2004-10-18	57.0	@ Waterford United	1	1149	12.30%	Bohemian	1	1417	68.82%	18.88%
14	2004-07-02	56.6	@ Shelbourne	1	1439	54.07%	Shamrock Rovers	1	1302	19.98%	25.95%
15	2004-11-19	56.5	@ Cork City	1	1353	26.46%	Bohemian	1	1424	45.01%	28.53%
16	2004-09-24	55.9	@ Bohemian	1	1408	57.54%	Longford Town	1	1244	17.91%	24.55%
17	2004-04-22	55.8	@ Dublin City	2	1140	11.89%	Bohemian	1	1416	69.76%	18.35%
18	2004-10-30	55.7	Dublin City	3	1122	27.03%	@ Derry City	2	1184	44.32%	28.66%
19	2004-11-05	55.0	@ Cork City	1	1343	57.02%	Derry City	1	1183	18.21%	24.78%
20	2004-06-18	54.9	Dublin City	4	1140	11.96%	@ Bohemian	2	1411	69.60%	18.44%
21	2004-08-20	54.9	@ Cork City	1	1299	58.50%	Dublin City	1	1127	17.37%	24.14%
22	2004-05-28	54.8	@ Waterford United	1	1128	18.01%	Cork City	1	1295	57.35%	24.63%
23	2004-06-12	54.5	@ Shamrock Rovers	2	1288	20.73%	Bohemian	1	1419	52.90%	26.37%
24	2004-04-09	54.2	@ Waterford United	1	1125	20.85%	Longford Town	1	1254	52.72%	26.43%
25	2004-04-17	54.1	@ Derry City	1	1169	22.47%	Cork City	1	1280	50.33%	27.21%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2004-11-12	25.7	@ Bohemian	4	1417	72.64%	Dublin City	0	1117	10.66%	16.70%
2	2004-04-02	25.8	@ Shelbourne	3	1435	71.77%	Drogheda United	0	1143	11.03%	17.20%
3	2004-06-04	26.6	@ Bohemian	3	1405	68.67%	Derry City	0	1143	12.36%	18.96%
4	2004-03-27	28.4	Shelbourne	2	1431	68.82%	@ Derry City	0	1164	12.30%	18.88%
5	2004-06-07	29.0	Bohemian	3	1411	62.02%	@ Drogheda United	0	1205	15.50%	22.48%
6	2004-04-30	30.0	@ Shelbourne	2	1444	65.28%	St Patrick's Athletic	0	1214	13.91%	20.81%
7	2004-04-12	30.5	@ Shamrock Rovers	4	1273	55.45%	Waterford United	0	1126	19.13%	25.42%
8	2004-10-29	30.9	Bohemian	3	1405	56.40%	@ Drogheda United	0	1246	18.57%	25.03%
9	2004-09-06	31.0	@ Shelbourne	4	1404	70.25%	Dublin City	1	1127	11.68%	18.07%
10	2004-07-30	31.1	@ Cork City	2	1297	57.85%	Waterford United	0	1131	17.73%	24.42%
11	2004-06-24	31.2	Shamrock Rovers	4	1289	53.24%	@ Dublin City	0	1155	20.51%	26.25%
12	2004-04-02	31.4	Bohemian	2	1423	60.41%	@ St Patrick's Athletic	0	1231	16.33%	23.25%
13	2004-10-22	31.5	@ Cork City	3	1328	52.11%	St Patrick's Athletic	0	1207	21.25%	26.64%
14	2004-06-11	31.6	Shelbourne	2	1430	60.19%	@ Longford Town	0	1240	16.45%	23.36%
15	2004-06-18	31.6	@ Shelbourne	1	1434	71.50%	Waterford United	0	1145	11.14%	17.36%
16	2004-05-14	32.1	Bohemian	1	1398	68.82%	@ Waterford United	0	1131	12.30%	18.88%
17	2004-05-14	32.3	@ Shelbourne	1	1426	69.14%	Derry City	0	1159	12.16%	18.70%
18	2004-03-22	32.7	Bohemian	2	1419	56.96%	@ Longford Town	0	1255	18.24%	24.80%
19	2004-11-09	33.0	@ Longford Town	2	1236	50.90%	Dublin City	0	1124	22.07%	27.03%
20	2004-08-06	33.3	Cork City	3	1290	45.52%	@ St Patrick's Athletic	0	1215	26.06%	28.42%
21	2004-09-04	33.5	@ Longford Town	3	1223	43.88%	Derry City	0	1164	27.39%	28.73%
22	2004-04-12	33.7	Shelbourne	2	1442	55.94%	@ Cork City	0	1287	18.84%	25.22%
23	2004-06-04	34.3	Shelbourne	3	1427	69.98%	@ Dublin City	1	1149	11.79%	18.23%
24	2004-07-30	34.6	@ Drogheda United	4	1213	41.71%	Derry City	0	1170	29.24%	29.06%
25	2004-10-19	34.8	Cork City	2	1319	46.76%	@ Longford Town	0	1235	25.09%	28.15%