Home / Leagues / Ireland / League of Ireland Premier Division / 2020
‹ ›

2020 League of Ireland Premier Division Season

90 games · 5 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Shamrock Rovers

48 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Shamrock Rovers

11.87 points above expected

48 points · 36.13 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Dundalk

8.50 points below expected

26 points · 34.50 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Shamrock Rovers 18 15 3 0 48 44 7 +37 36.13 +11.87
2 Bohemian 18 12 1 5 37 23 12 +11 28.80 +8.20
3 Dundalk 18 7 5 6 26 25 23 +2 34.50 -8.50
4 Sligo Rovers 18 8 1 9 25 19 23 -4 20.66 +4.34
5 Waterford 18 7 3 8 24 17 22 -5 22.69 +1.31
6 St Patrick's Athletic 18 5 6 7 21 14 17 -3 22.68 -1.68
7 Derry City 18 5 5 8 20 18 18 0 26.95 -6.95
8 Finn Harps 18 5 5 8 20 15 24 -9 16.77 +3.23
9 Shelbourne 18 5 4 9 19 13 22 -9 23.15 -4.15
10 Cork City 18 2 5 11 11 10 30 -20 18.41 -7.41

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Shamrock Rovers 48 36.13 +11.87
2 Bohemian 37 28.80 +8.20
3 Sligo Rovers 25 20.66 +4.34
4 Finn Harps 20 16.77 +3.23
5 Waterford 24 22.69 +1.31

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dundalk 26 34.50 -8.50
2 Cork City 11 18.41 -7.41
3 Derry City 20 26.95 -6.95
4 Shelbourne 19 23.15 -4.15
5 St Patrick's Athletic 21 22.68 -1.68

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Shamrock Rovers 7 Feb 15 – Aug 9 1 in 59
2 Bohemian 5 Mar 6 – Aug 22 1 in 47
3 Sligo Rovers 3 Aug 18 – Sep 7 1 in 33
4 Finn Harps 2 Oct 24 – Oct 28 1 in 22
5 Waterford 2 Mar 6 – Aug 1 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Finn Harps 6 Feb 28 – Aug 15 1 in 36
2 Sligo Rovers 4 Feb 14 – Mar 7 1 in 20
3 Derry City 2 Mar 6 – Jul 31 1 in 14
4 Bohemian 2 Sep 5 – Sep 11 1 in 8
5 Shelbourne 2 Mar 6 – Aug 1 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Finn Harps 6 Sep 13 – Oct 28 1 in 149
2 Shamrock Rovers 18 Feb 15 – Nov 9 1 in 46
3 Waterford 4 Mar 6 – Aug 14 1 in 13
4 Sligo Rovers 4 Aug 18 – Sep 12 1 in 11
5 St Patrick's Athletic 4 Sep 12 – Oct 3 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Shelbourne 8 Aug 8 – Oct 3 1 in 48
2 Dundalk 4 Jul 31 – Aug 22 1 in 48
3 Cork City 10 Aug 21 – Nov 9 1 in 20
4 Derry City 4 Sep 13 – Sep 29 1 in 11
5 Waterford 4 Aug 8 – Aug 23 1 in 10

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Shamrock Rovers 1506 48 +24 13 11.5 +1.5
Bohemian 1318 37 +4 10 8.8 +1.2
Dundalk 1333 26 -35 5 9.1 -4.1
Sligo Rovers 1221 25 +26 9 5.4 +3.6
Waterford 1220 24 -26 4 7.0 -3.0
St Patrick's Athletic 1207 21 -3 5 5.5 -0.5
Finn Harps 1168 20 +46 10 4.1 +5.9
Derry City 1262 20 +15 7 6.7 +0.3
Shelbourne 1197 19 -14 6 5.5 +0.5
Cork City 1122 11 -25 2 4.5 -2.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BOH CC DC DUN FH SR SHE SR SPA WAT
Bohemian —
2-0-0
3.94
1-0-1
3.10
1-1-0
2.15
1-0-1
4.19
0-0-2
2.11
2-0-0
3.28
2-0-0
3.56
2-0-0
3.52
1-0-1
3.26
Cork City
0-0-2
1.64
 —
0-1-1
1.91
0-0-2
1.24
1-1-0
2.84
0-0-2
1.30
0-1-1
2.25
1-0-1
2.36
0-0-2
2.32
0-2-0
2.09
Derry City
1-0-1
2.46
1-1-0
3.66
 —
0-0-2
1.89
0-2-0
3.72
0-0-2
1.51
1-1-0
3.03
0-0-2
3.44
1-1-0
3.12
1-0-1
3.08
Dundalk
0-1-1
3.40
2-0-0
4.37
2-0-0
3.68
 —
1-1-0
4.42
0-0-2
2.63
2-0-0
3.90
0-0-2
4.20
0-2-0
4.03
0-1-1
4.02
Finn Harps
1-0-1
1.41
0-1-1
2.72
0-2-0
1.85
0-1-1
1.20
 —
0-0-2
1.00
0-1-1
2.00
1-0-1
2.33
1-0-1
2.22
2-0-0
2.10
Shamrock Rovers
2-0-0
3.45
2-0-0
4.30
2-0-0
4.09
2-0-0
2.92
2-0-0
4.64
 —
1-1-0
4.40
2-0-0
4.47
0-2-0
4.36
2-0-0
4.05
Shelbourne
0-0-2
2.28
1-1-0
3.30
0-1-1
2.53
0-0-2
1.67
1-1-0
3.57
0-1-1
1.21
 —
1-0-1
3.08
1-0-1
3.03
1-0-1
2.77
Sligo Rovers
0-0-2
2.01
1-0-1
3.20
2-0-0
2.13
2-0-0
1.40
1-0-1
3.23
0-0-2
1.15
1-0-1
2.47
 —
0-1-1
2.79
1-0-1
2.38
St Patrick's Athletic
0-0-2
2.05
2-0-0
3.24
0-1-1
2.44
0-2-0
1.55
1-0-1
3.34
0-2-0
1.26
1-0-1
2.52
1-1-0
2.76
 —
0-0-2
2.79
Waterford
1-0-1
2.30
0-2-0
3.47
1-0-1
2.47
1-1-0
1.57
0-0-2
3.46
0-0-2
1.54
1-0-1
2.79
1-0-1
3.18
2-0-0
2.77
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.86 +10.0
Allowed 0.78 -14.0
Differential 0.93 +6.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%11.11%2.78%1.67%0.56%38.33%
111.11%8.89%6.11%2.78%—0.56%29.44%
211.11%6.11%1.11%2.78%——21.11%
32.78%2.78%2.78%———8.33%
41.67%—————1.67%
5+0.56%0.56%————1.11%
Total38.33%29.44%21.11%8.33%1.67%1.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.10 1.10 +0.00
SD 1.16 1.16 1.80
CV 1.06 1.06 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%16.67%———33.33%
116.67%—————16.67%
222.22%16.67%————38.89%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total50.00%33.33%16.67%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 0.67 +0.61
SD 1.07 0.77 1.58
CV 0.84 1.15 —
Max 3 2 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%5.56%16.67%—5.56%55.56%
15.56%16.67%11.11%5.56%——38.89%
2———————
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%33.33%16.67%22.22%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.56 1.67 -1.11
SD 0.78 1.53 1.94
CV 1.41 0.92 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%11.11%———33.33%
1—16.67%22.22%———38.89%
222.22%—————22.22%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%33.33%33.33%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.00 +0.00
SD 0.91 0.84 1.41
CV 0.91 0.84 —
Max 3 2 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%—5.56%—27.78%
15.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
25.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total33.33%27.78%22.22%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.28 +0.11
SD 1.20 1.23 1.88
CV 0.86 0.96 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%11.11%—5.56%—44.44%
111.11%16.67%—11.11%——38.89%
25.56%—————5.56%
3——11.11%———11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%33.33%22.22%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.83 1.33 -0.50
SD 0.99 1.19 1.50
CV 1.18 0.89 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%—————16.67%
111.11%—————11.11%
222.22%5.56%————27.78%
35.56%5.56%11.11%———22.22%
411.11%—————11.11%
5+5.56%5.56%————11.11%
Total72.22%16.67%11.11%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.44 0.39 +2.06
SD 1.79 0.70 1.73
CV 0.73 1.79 —
Max 6 2 +6
Min 0 0 +0

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%22.22%———33.33%
127.78%16.67%11.11%5.56%——61.11%
2———5.56%——5.56%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%22.22%33.33%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.72 1.22 -0.50
SD 0.57 1.06 1.20
CV 0.80 0.87 —
Max 2 3 +1
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%22.22%11.11%5.56%5.56%—50.00%
15.56%—————5.56%
211.11%16.67%—5.56%——33.33%
3—11.11%————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%50.00%11.11%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.28 -0.22
SD 1.16 1.13 1.83
CV 1.10 0.88 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%11.11%11.11%5.56%——50.00%
15.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
216.67%5.56%—5.56%——27.78%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total44.44%27.78%16.67%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.78 0.94 -0.17
SD 0.88 1.06 1.42
CV 1.13 1.12 —
Max 2 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%16.67%———38.89%
122.22%—5.56%——5.56%33.33%
25.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total44.44%16.67%27.78%5.56%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 1.22 -0.28
SD 0.94 1.56 1.84
CV 0.99 1.27 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Shamrock Rovers 1506 48 36.13 +11.87 100.0% 21 26 32 37 40 44 48
Dundalk 1333 26 34.50 -8.50 8.0% 19 25 31 35 38 43 48
Bohemian 1318 37 28.80 +8.20 98.0% 14 21 26 29 32 36 41
Derry City 1262 20 26.95 -6.95 14.0% 14 18 24 27 30 36 40
Sligo Rovers 1221 25 20.66 +4.34 81.0% 3 10 17 21 25 30 33
Waterford 1220 24 22.69 +1.31 66.0% 7 13 19 22 27 31 37
St Patrick's Athletic 1207 21 22.68 -1.68 41.0% 10 15 19 23 26 30 33
Shelbourne 1185 19 23.15 -4.15 28.0% 11 14 19 24 26 32 35
Finn Harps 1168 20 16.77 +3.23 80.0% 8 10 14 16 20 25 38
Cork City 1122 11 18.41 -7.41 9.0% 6 9 15 18 21 26 32

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8.5% * Slight Edge: 8.5% to 12.5% * Clear Edge: 12.5% to 19% * Strong Edge: 19% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+10.00%
Slight Edge
44.44%21.11%34.44%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 34.86 Elo pts.
171 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.24 goals
Neutral
-2+0.20+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.22 * Runaway: 0.22 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.5
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
52%
Shamrock Rovers, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.61/gm
Runaway
00.270.8/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.25 * Some Luck: 4.25 to 6.38 * Lucky: 6.38 to 8.5 * Wild Swing: 8.5 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.22 * Close: 1.22 to 1.83 * Off: 1.83 to 2.45 * Way Off: 2.45 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.59 points
Lucky
05.3113
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.80
Close
01.534
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
100.00%
Shamrock Rovers
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
8.00%
Dundalk
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.95 * Strong Separation: 1.95 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 76.5% * Wide Edge: 76.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 87.5% * Clear Edge: 87.5% to 91.5% * Strong Edge: 91.5% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 59% * Frequent: 59% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.
Gini Index
0.20
Lopsided
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 108.73
1.82
Moderate Separation
11.71.952.22.75
Interquartile Edge
65%
Even
50%68%76.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
90%
Clear Edge
50%89%100%
Close Games
Expected
61%
Frequent
0%59%100%
Blowouts
Expected
11%
Rare
0%17%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Notable Separation: 0.41 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.56 * Strong Carryover: 0.56 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 20.5% * As Expected: 20.5% to 23% * Upset-Prone: 23% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 20% * Shaky Favorites: 20% to 23% * Very Shaky: 23% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.59
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.34
Very Even
00.370.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.57
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.64
Strong Carryover
00.360.560.691
Upset Rate
Expected
27%
Very Upset-Prone
0%26%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
16%
Solid Favorites
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.27 * Above Noise: 0.27 to 0.36 * Well Above Noise: 0.36 and up.
Probability calibration
0.35
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.17
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.134
Well Within Noise
00.1820.5

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Quarterfinals

Galway United 1
Bray Wanderers 0
Longford Town 3
UC Dublin 2

Semifinals

Longford Town 2
Galway United 1

Finals

Longford Town 1
Shelbourne 0

Sim: 1.0%

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Shamrock Rovers52.00%24.00%15.00%5.00%3.00%—1.00%———
Bohemian7.00%16.00%31.00%20.00%7.00%10.00%6.00%2.00%1.00%—
Dundalk36.00%36.00%11.00%9.00%5.00%2.00%——1.00%—
Sligo Rovers1.00%1.00%5.00%8.00%9.00%15.00%16.00%15.00%15.00%15.00%
Waterford1.00%4.00%5.00%16.00%14.00%10.00%16.00%10.00%16.00%8.00%
St Patrick's Athletic—2.00%8.00%10.00%16.00%17.00%17.00%18.00%7.00%5.00%
Derry City1.00%13.00%15.00%20.00%21.00%10.00%8.00%6.00%5.00%1.00%
Finn Harps1.00%—1.00%2.00%4.00%4.00%9.00%15.00%23.00%41.00%
Shelbourne1.00%4.00%8.00%9.00%15.00%19.00%15.00%12.00%10.00%7.00%
Cork City——1.00%1.00%6.00%13.00%12.00%22.00%22.00%23.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level Lost relegation playoff Direct relegation
Shamrock Rovers 100% — —
Bohemian 99.00% 1.00% —
Dundalk 99.00% 1.00% —
Derry City 94.00% 5.00% 1.00%
St Patrick's Athletic 88.00% 7.00% 5.00%
Waterford 76.00% 16.00% 8.00%
Sligo Rovers 70.00% 15.00% 15.00%
Cork City 55.00% 22.00% 23.00%
Finn Harps 36.00% 23.00% 41.00%
Shelbourne — 100% —
Loser →
↓ Winner
Athlone TownBohemianBray WanderersCabinteelyCobh RamblersCork CityDerry CityDrogheda UnitedFinn HarpsGalway UnitedLongford TownShelbourneSligo RoversSt Patrick's AthleticUC DublinWaterfordWexford
Athlone Town
Bohemian
Bray Wanderers
Cabinteely
Cobh Ramblers
Cork City
Derry City
Drogheda United
Finn Harps
Galway United
Longford Town
Shelbourne
Sligo Rovers
St Patrick's Athletic
UC Dublin
Waterford
Wexford
Loser →
↓ Winner
Athlone TownBohemianBray WanderersCabinteelyCobh RamblersCork CityDerry CityDrogheda UnitedFinn HarpsGalway UnitedLongford TownShelbourneSligo RoversSt Patrick's AthleticUC DublinWaterford
Athlone Town
Bohemian
Bray Wanderers
Cabinteely
Cobh Ramblers
Cork City
Derry City
Drogheda United
Finn Harps
Galway United
Longford Town
Shelbourne
Sligo Rovers
St Patrick's Athletic
UC Dublin
Waterford
Loser →
↓ Winner
Athlone TownBohemianBray WanderersCabinteelyCobh RamblersCork CityDerry CityDrogheda UnitedFinn HarpsGalway UnitedLongford TownShelbourneSligo RoversSt Patrick's AthleticUC DublinWaterford
Athlone Town0.0%1.00%
Bohemian100.0%1.00%
Bray Wanderers60.0%5.00%100.0%1.00%55.6%9.00%33.3%3.00%33.3%3.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%4.00%
Cabinteely0.0%1.00%25.0%4.00%0.0%1.00%
Cobh Ramblers0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Cork City40.0%5.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%50.0%4.00%40.0%5.00%50.0%4.00%50.0%2.00%
Derry City0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Drogheda United0.0%1.00%50.0%4.00%0.0%1.00%80.0%5.00%0.0%1.00%50.0%4.00%100.0%2.00%0.0%3.00%
Finn Harps44.4%9.00%75.0%4.00%20.0%5.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%2.00%60.0%5.00%
Galway United60.0%5.00%0.0%1.00%50.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%
Longford Town50.0%4.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%25.0%4.00%25.0%4.00%50.0%2.00%
Shelbourne66.7%3.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%75.0%4.00%100.0%3.00%
Sligo Rovers66.7%3.00%100.0%1.00%50.0%4.00%75.0%4.00%66.7%3.00%
St Patrick's Athletic0.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%50.0%2.00%80.0%5.00%
UC Dublin50.0%2.00%40.0%5.00%0.0%3.00%33.3%3.00%20.0%5.00%
Waterford100.0%1.00%0.0%4.00%100.0%3.00%100.0%1.00%50.0%2.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Just the teams that actually reached the promotion playoff. With the field fixed in place, the playoff sim re-runs every tie and tallies how often each team won each round — the table gives those probabilities, and the final round's column is the chance of winning the playoff outright. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pairing met in that round.

Team Quarterfinals Semifinals Finals
Shelbourne — — 54.25%
Bray Wanderers 65.36% 39.69% 20.45%
UC Dublin 58.53% 25.66% 10.90%
Galway United 34.64% 17.24% 7.33%
Longford Town 41.47% 17.41% 7.07%
Loser →
↓ Winner
Bray WanderersGalway UnitedLongford TownShelbourneUC Dublin
Bray Wanderers
Galway United
Longford Town
Shelbourne
UC Dublin
Loser →
↓ Winner
Bray WanderersGalway UnitedLongford TownShelbourneUC Dublin
Bray Wanderers
Galway United
Longford Town
Shelbourne
UC Dublin
Loser →
↓ Winner
Bray WanderersGalway UnitedLongford TownShelbourneUC Dublin
Bray Wanderers51.5%39.69%
Galway United42.5%17.24%
Longford Town40.6%17.41%
Shelbourne48.5%39.69%57.5%17.24%59.4%17.41%57.5%25.66%
UC Dublin42.5%25.66%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2020-02-14 Derry City W 1-037.1 1403 1268 60.17% 20.82% 19.01%+1.00 +5.2 3
2020-02-14 @ Dundalk L 0-137.1 1268 1403 19.01% 20.82% 60.17%-1.00 -5.2 0
2020-02-14 Shelbourne L 0-141.1 1190 1251 35.18% 22.35% 42.47%-0.15 -8.7 0
2020-02-14 @ Cork City W 1-041.1 1251 1190 42.47% 22.35% 35.18%+0.15 +8.7 3
2020-02-14 Sligo Rovers W 1-042.4 1160 1202 37.75% 22.38% 39.86%-0.04 +9.6 3
2020-02-14 @ Finn Harps L 0-142.4 1202 1160 39.86% 22.38% 37.75%+0.04 -9.6 0
2020-02-14 Waterford L 0-143.5 1220 1225 43.01% 22.34% 34.66%+0.17 -10.2 0
2020-02-14 @ St Patrick's Athletic W 1-043.5 1225 1220 34.66% 22.34% 43.01%-0.17 +10.2 3
2020-02-15 Shamrock Rovers L 0-141.2 1277 1359 32.31% 22.26% 45.43%-0.28 -8.2 0
2020-02-15 @ Bohemian W 1-041.2 1359 1277 45.43% 22.26% 32.31%+0.28 +8.2 3
2020-02-21 Bohemian L 0-239.2 1235 1269 38.98% 22.39% 38.63%+0.01 -17.8 3
2020-02-21 @ Waterford W 2-039.2 1269 1235 38.63% 22.39% 38.98%-0.01 +17.8 3
2020-02-21 Cork City W 6-030.3 1367 1181 65.05% 19.84% 15.11%+1.29 +21.6 6
2020-02-21 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-630.3 1181 1367 15.11% 19.84% 65.05%-1.29 -21.6 0
2020-02-21 Dundalk L 1-245.4 1259 1408 24.39% 21.67% 53.94%-0.67 -6.1 3
2020-02-21 @ Shelbourne W 2-145.4 1408 1259 53.94% 21.67% 24.39%+0.67 +6.1 6
2020-02-21 Finn Harps D 1-156.2 1263 1169 55.56% 21.49% 22.96%+0.75 -1.7 1
2020-02-21 @ Derry City D 1-156.2 1169 1263 22.96% 21.49% 55.56%-0.75 +1.7 4
2020-02-21 St Patrick's Athletic L 0-239.7 1192 1210 41.31% 22.37% 36.32%+0.10 -18.7 0
2020-02-21 @ Sligo Rovers W 2-039.7 1210 1192 36.32% 22.37% 41.31%-0.10 +18.7 3
2020-02-24 Cork City W 3-028.1 1414 1160 70.76% 18.24% 11.00%+1.70 +8.2 9
2020-02-24 @ Dundalk L 0-328.1 1160 1414 11.00% 18.24% 70.76%-1.70 -8.2 0
2020-02-24 Shamrock Rovers L 0-234.4 1217 1389 22.10% 21.36% 56.54%-0.80 -11.1 3
2020-02-24 @ Waterford W 2-034.4 1389 1217 56.54% 21.36% 22.10%+0.80 +11.1 9
2020-02-24 Sligo Rovers W 2-033.4 1287 1174 57.79% 21.19% 21.02%+0.87 +10.6 6
2020-02-24 @ Bohemian L 0-233.4 1174 1287 21.02% 21.19% 57.79%-0.87 -10.6 0
2020-02-28 Bohemian W 2-039.5 1261 1297 38.56% 22.39% 39.05%-0.01 +17.9 4
2020-02-28 @ Derry City L 0-239.5 1297 1261 39.05% 22.39% 38.56%+0.01 -17.9 6
2020-02-28 Dundalk W 3-256.9 1400 1423 40.57% 22.38% 37.05%+0.07 +8.1 12
2020-02-28 @ Shamrock Rovers L 2-356.9 1423 1400 37.05% 22.38% 40.57%-0.07 -8.1 9
2020-02-28 Finn Harps W 1-041.4 1151 1171 40.98% 22.37% 36.65%+0.09 +9.0 3
2020-02-28 @ Cork City L 0-141.4 1171 1151 36.65% 22.37% 40.98%-0.09 -9.0 4
2020-02-28 St Patrick's Athletic W 1-039.8 1253 1228 47.11% 22.19% 30.70%+0.35 +7.8 6
2020-02-28 @ Shelbourne L 0-139.8 1228 1253 30.70% 22.19% 47.11%-0.35 -7.8 3
2020-03-06 Cork City W 1-038.3 1220 1160 51.61% 21.89% 26.51%+0.56 +6.9 6
2020-03-06 @ St Patrick's Athletic L 0-138.3 1160 1220 26.51% 21.89% 51.61%-0.56 -6.9 3
2020-03-06 Derry City W 2-150.4 1206 1279 33.60% 22.31% 44.10%-0.22 +9.9 6
2020-03-06 @ Waterford L 1-250.4 1279 1206 44.10% 22.31% 33.60%+0.22 -9.9 4
2020-03-06 Dundalk L 0-429.6 1162 1415 15.34% 19.91% 64.75%-1.27 -15.0 4
2020-03-06 @ Finn Harps W 4-029.6 1415 1162 64.75% 19.91% 15.34%+1.27 +15.0 12
2020-03-06 Shelbourne W 2-037.1 1280 1261 46.24% 22.23% 31.53%+0.31 +15.1 9
2020-03-06 @ Bohemian L 0-237.1 1261 1280 31.53% 22.23% 46.24%-0.31 -15.1 6
2020-03-07 Shamrock Rovers L 2-346.4 1163 1408 15.86% 20.06% 64.08%-1.23 -3.9 0
2020-03-07 @ Sligo Rovers W 3-246.4 1408 1163 64.08% 20.06% 15.86%+1.23 +3.9 15
2020-07-31 Sligo Rovers L 0-244.2 1269 1159 57.41% 21.25% 21.34%+0.85 -24.8 4
2020-07-31 @ Derry City W 2-044.2 1159 1269 21.34% 21.25% 57.41%-0.85 +24.8 3
2020-07-31 St Patrick's Athletic D 1-157.9 1430 1227 66.47% 19.49% 14.04%+1.39 -2.9 13
2020-07-31 @ Dundalk D 1-157.9 1227 1430 14.04% 19.49% 66.47%-1.39 +2.9 7
2020-08-01 Finn Harps W 3-135.7 1412 1147 71.52% 17.98% 10.49%+1.76 +4.6 18
2020-08-01 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-335.7 1147 1412 10.49% 17.98% 71.52%-1.76 -4.6 4
2020-08-01 Waterford L 0-144.9 1246 1216 47.76% 22.15% 30.09%+0.38 -11.2 6
2020-08-01 @ Shelbourne W 1-044.9 1216 1246 30.09% 22.15% 47.76%-0.38 +11.2 9
2020-08-02 Bohemian L 0-138.0 1154 1295 25.25% 21.76% 52.99%-0.62 -6.6 3
2020-08-02 @ Cork City W 1-038.0 1295 1154 52.99% 21.76% 25.25%+0.62 +6.6 12
2020-08-03 Derry City L 0-240.0 1230 1244 41.81% 22.36% 35.83%+0.12 -18.9 7
2020-08-03 @ St Patrick's Athletic W 2-040.0 1244 1230 35.83% 22.36% 41.81%-0.12 +18.9 7
2020-08-04 Shelbourne L 0-139.7 1142 1235 30.99% 22.20% 46.81%-0.34 -7.9 4
2020-08-04 @ Finn Harps W 1-039.7 1235 1142 46.81% 22.20% 30.99%+0.34 +7.9 9
2020-08-07 Dundalk W 2-154.3 1301 1427 27.01% 21.93% 51.06%-0.53 +11.2 15
2020-08-07 @ Bohemian L 1-254.3 1427 1301 51.06% 21.93% 27.01%+0.53 -11.2 13
2020-08-07 Finn Harps W 2-034.4 1211 1135 53.65% 21.70% 24.65%+0.65 +12.3 10
2020-08-07 @ St Patrick's Athletic L 0-234.4 1135 1211 24.65% 21.70% 53.65%-0.65 -12.2 4
2020-08-08 Cork City D 0-050.4 1227 1147 54.07% 21.65% 24.27%+0.67 -1.7 10
2020-08-08 @ Waterford D 0-050.4 1147 1227 24.27% 21.65% 54.07%-0.67 +1.7 4
2020-08-08 Shelbourne W 2-149.7 1184 1243 35.43% 22.35% 42.21%-0.14 +9.5 6
2020-08-08 @ Sligo Rovers L 1-249.7 1243 1184 42.21% 22.35% 35.43%+0.14 -9.5 9
2020-08-09 Shamrock Rovers L 1-245.4 1263 1417 23.89% 21.61% 54.51%-0.70 -6.0 7
2020-08-09 @ Derry City W 2-145.4 1417 1263 54.51% 21.61% 23.89%+0.70 +6.0 21
2020-08-14 Sligo Rovers W 3-037.5 1149 1193 37.39% 22.38% 40.23%-0.06 +26.6 7
2020-08-14 @ Cork City L 0-337.5 1193 1149 40.23% 22.38% 37.39%+0.06 -26.6 6
2020-08-14 Waterford D 2-263.8 1415 1226 65.39% 19.76% 14.85%+1.32 -2.1 14
2020-08-14 @ Dundalk D 2-263.8 1226 1415 14.85% 19.76% 65.39%-1.32 +2.1 11
2020-08-15 Bohemian L 0-136.3 1122 1312 20.35% 21.08% 58.57%-0.91 -5.5 4
2020-08-15 @ Finn Harps W 1-036.3 1312 1122 58.57% 21.08% 20.35%+0.91 +5.5 18
2020-08-15 Derry City D 1-156.1 1233 1257 40.40% 22.38% 37.22%+0.07 -0.2 10
2020-08-15 @ Shelbourne D 1-156.1 1257 1233 37.22% 22.38% 40.40%-0.07 +0.2 8
2020-08-16 Shamrock Rovers D 0-051.7 1224 1423 19.55% 20.93% 59.52%-0.96 +2.4 11
2020-08-16 @ St Patrick's Athletic D 0-051.7 1423 1224 59.52% 20.93% 19.55%+0.96 -2.4 22
2020-08-18 Waterford W 2-149.8 1167 1228 35.16% 22.35% 42.49%-0.15 +9.6 9
2020-08-18 @ Sligo Rovers L 1-249.8 1228 1167 42.49% 22.35% 35.16%+0.15 -9.6 11
2020-08-21 Cork City W 3-140.5 1257 1175 54.25% 21.63% 24.12%+0.68 +10.4 11
2020-08-21 @ Derry City L 1-340.5 1175 1257 24.12% 21.63% 54.25%-0.68 -10.4 7
2020-08-21 Shelbourne D 0-052.1 1420 1233 65.16% 19.82% 15.03%+1.30 -3.1 23
2020-08-21 @ Shamrock Rovers D 0-052.1 1233 1420 15.03% 19.82% 65.16%-1.30 +3.1 11
2020-08-22 Dundalk W 3-152.4 1176 1413 16.46% 20.23% 63.31%-1.18 +23.5 12
2020-08-22 @ Sligo Rovers L 1-352.4 1413 1176 63.31% 20.23% 16.46%+1.18 -23.5 14
2020-08-22 St Patrick's Athletic W 2-034.4 1318 1226 55.40% 21.50% 23.10%+0.74 +11.6 21
2020-08-22 @ Bohemian L 0-234.4 1226 1318 23.10% 21.50% 55.40%-0.74 -11.6 11
2020-08-23 Finn Harps L 2-358.3 1218 1117 56.48% 21.37% 22.15%+0.80 -11.6 11
2020-08-23 @ Waterford W 3-258.3 1117 1218 22.15% 21.37% 56.48%-0.80 +11.6 7
2020-09-04 St Patrick's Athletic W 3-036.0 1207 1215 42.62% 22.35% 35.03%+0.16 +23.8 14
2020-09-04 @ Waterford L 0-336.0 1215 1207 35.03% 22.35% 42.62%-0.16 -23.8 11
2020-09-05 Bohemian W 1-039.7 1417 1329 54.94% 21.56% 23.51%+0.72 +6.2 26
2020-09-05 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-139.7 1329 1417 23.51% 21.56% 54.94%-0.72 -6.2 21
2020-09-05 Cork City D 1-156.1 1236 1165 52.99% 21.76% 25.25%+0.62 -1.5 12
2020-09-05 @ Shelbourne D 1-156.1 1165 1236 25.25% 21.76% 52.99%-0.62 +1.4 8
2020-09-07 Finn Harps W 3-140.7 1200 1128 53.01% 21.76% 25.23%+0.62 +10.8 15
2020-09-07 @ Sligo Rovers L 1-340.7 1128 1200 25.23% 21.76% 53.01%-0.62 -10.8 7
2020-09-11 Shelbourne W 3-247.3 1390 1235 62.14% 20.46% 17.39%+1.11 +4.2 17
2020-09-11 @ Dundalk L 2-347.3 1235 1390 17.39% 20.46% 62.14%-1.11 -4.2 12
2020-09-11 Waterford L 0-244.1 1323 1230 55.52% 21.49% 22.99%+0.75 -24.0 21
2020-09-11 @ Bohemian W 2-044.1 1230 1323 22.99% 21.49% 55.52%-0.75 +24.0 17
2020-09-12 Shamrock Rovers L 0-329.9 1166 1424 15.01% 19.81% 65.18%-1.30 -11.2 8
2020-09-12 @ Cork City W 3-029.9 1424 1166 65.18% 19.81% 15.01%+1.30 +11.2 29
2020-09-12 Sligo Rovers D 0-050.2 1191 1211 40.92% 22.37% 36.70%+0.09 -0.2 12
2020-09-12 @ St Patrick's Athletic D 0-050.2 1211 1191 36.70% 22.37% 40.92%-0.09 +0.2 16
2020-09-13 Derry City D 0-050.4 1118 1268 24.29% 21.65% 54.05%-0.67 +1.8 8
2020-09-13 @ Finn Harps D 0-050.4 1268 1118 54.05% 21.65% 24.29%+0.67 -1.7 12
2020-09-18 Bohemian L 0-140.2 1211 1299 31.52% 22.23% 46.25%-0.31 -8.0 16
2020-09-18 @ Sligo Rovers W 1-040.2 1299 1211 46.25% 22.23% 31.52%+0.31 +8.0 24
2020-09-18 St Patrick's Athletic D 0-050.5 1266 1190 53.47% 21.71% 24.82%+0.65 -1.7 13
2020-09-18 @ Derry City D 0-050.5 1190 1266 24.82% 21.71% 53.47%-0.65 +1.7 13
2020-09-19 Finn Harps D 1-156.1 1230 1119 57.58% 21.22% 21.20%+0.85 -1.9 13
2020-09-19 @ Shelbourne D 1-156.1 1119 1230 21.20% 21.22% 57.58%-0.85 +1.9 9
2020-09-21 Waterford W 6-132.9 1435 1254 64.53% 19.96% 15.51%+1.26 +15.5 32
2020-09-21 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-632.9 1254 1435 15.51% 19.96% 64.53%-1.26 -15.5 17
2020-09-25 Derry City W 2-146.0 1307 1264 49.47% 22.05% 28.48%+0.46 +6.9 27
2020-09-25 @ Bohemian L 1-246.0 1264 1307 28.48% 22.05% 49.47%-0.46 -6.9 13
2020-09-26 Shelbourne W 2-039.0 1192 1229 38.58% 22.39% 39.03%-0.01 +17.9 16
2020-09-26 @ St Patrick's Athletic L 0-239.0 1229 1192 39.03% 22.39% 38.58%+0.01 -17.9 13
2020-09-26 Sligo Rovers W 1-039.3 1239 1203 48.56% 22.11% 29.34%+0.41 +7.5 20
2020-09-26 @ Waterford L 0-139.3 1203 1239 29.34% 22.11% 48.56%-0.41 -7.5 16
2020-09-27 Cork City D 1-155.7 1121 1155 38.96% 22.39% 38.65%+0.01 -0.0 10
2020-09-27 @ Finn Harps D 1-155.7 1155 1121 38.65% 22.39% 38.96%-0.01 +0.0 9
2020-09-27 Shamrock Rovers L 0-440.4 1394 1450 35.82% 22.36% 41.82%-0.12 -31.7 17
2020-09-27 @ Dundalk W 4-040.4 1450 1394 41.82% 22.36% 35.82%+0.12 +31.7 35
2020-09-29 Derry City W 1-043.4 1195 1257 35.03% 22.35% 42.63%-0.16 +10.2 19
2020-09-29 @ Sligo Rovers L 0-143.4 1257 1195 42.63% 22.35% 35.03%+0.16 -10.2 13
2020-10-02 Sligo Rovers W 4-028.3 1482 1206 72.35% 17.70% 9.96%+1.82 +9.6 38
2020-10-02 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-428.3 1206 1482 9.96% 17.70% 72.35%-1.82 -9.6 19
2020-10-02 Waterford W 2-037.7 1247 1246 43.81% 22.32% 33.88%+0.21 +16.0 16
2020-10-02 @ Derry City L 0-237.7 1246 1247 33.88% 22.32% 43.81%-0.21 -16.0 20
2020-10-03 Bohemian L 1-342.6 1211 1314 29.62% 22.12% 48.26%-0.40 -12.4 13
2020-10-03 @ Shelbourne W 3-142.6 1314 1211 48.26% 22.12% 29.62%+0.40 +12.4 30
2020-10-03 St Patrick's Athletic L 1-247.8 1155 1210 35.97% 22.36% 41.67%-0.12 -8.4 9
2020-10-03 @ Cork City W 2-147.8 1210 1155 41.67% 22.36% 35.97%+0.12 +8.4 19
2020-10-04 Finn Harps D 0-051.5 1362 1121 69.71% 18.58% 11.72%+1.62 -3.6 18
2020-10-04 @ Dundalk D 0-051.5 1121 1362 11.72% 18.58% 69.71%-1.62 +3.6 11
2020-10-09 Cork City W 3-029.6 1327 1147 64.48% 19.97% 15.54%+1.26 +11.6 33
2020-10-09 @ Bohemian L 0-329.6 1147 1327 15.54% 19.97% 64.48%-1.26 -11.6 9
2020-10-10 Shelbourne L 0-144.9 1230 1198 48.06% 22.14% 29.80%+0.39 -11.2 20
2020-10-10 @ Waterford W 1-044.9 1198 1230 29.80% 22.14% 48.06%-0.39 +11.2 16
2020-10-13 Dundalk L 0-232.2 1135 1359 17.48% 20.48% 62.04%-1.11 -9.0 9
2020-10-13 @ Cork City W 2-032.2 1359 1135 62.04% 20.48% 17.48%+1.11 +9.0 21
2020-10-16 Bohemian D 0-052.0 1368 1338 47.74% 22.15% 30.11%+0.38 -1.0 22
2020-10-16 @ Dundalk D 0-052.0 1338 1368 30.11% 22.15% 47.74%-0.38 +1.0 34
2020-10-17 Waterford D 0-050.2 1126 1219 30.89% 22.20% 46.91%-0.34 +0.9 10
2020-10-17 @ Cork City D 0-050.2 1219 1126 46.91% 22.20% 30.89%+0.34 -0.9 21
2020-10-18 Sligo Rovers W 1-040.1 1210 1196 45.59% 22.26% 32.16%+0.28 +8.1 19
2020-10-18 @ Shelbourne L 0-140.1 1196 1210 32.16% 22.26% 45.59%-0.28 -8.1 19
2020-10-19 Dundalk L 1-246.8 1263 1367 29.57% 22.12% 48.31%-0.40 -7.1 16
2020-10-19 @ Derry City W 2-146.8 1367 1263 48.31% 22.12% 29.57%+0.40 +7.2 25
2020-10-23 Shelbourne W 2-036.1 1256 1218 48.85% 22.09% 29.07%+0.43 +14.1 19
2020-10-23 @ Derry City L 0-236.1 1218 1256 29.07% 22.09% 48.85%-0.43 -14.1 19
2020-10-24 Cork City W 2-144.7 1188 1127 51.71% 21.88% 26.42%+0.56 +6.5 22
2020-10-24 @ Sligo Rovers L 1-244.7 1127 1188 26.42% 21.88% 51.71%-0.56 -6.5 10
2020-10-24 Finn Harps L 0-246.7 1339 1125 67.52% 19.21% 13.27%+1.46 -28.7 34
2020-10-24 @ Bohemian W 2-046.7 1125 1339 13.27% 19.21% 67.52%-1.46 +28.7 14
2020-10-25 Dundalk W 1-047.4 1218 1374 23.70% 21.58% 54.72%-0.71 +12.6 24
2020-10-25 @ Waterford L 0-147.4 1374 1218 54.72% 21.58% 23.70%+0.71 -12.6 25
2020-10-28 St Patrick's Athletic W 3-254.6 1154 1218 34.62% 22.34% 43.05%-0.18 +9.2 17
2020-10-28 @ Finn Harps L 2-354.6 1218 1154 43.05% 22.34% 34.62%+0.18 -9.2 19
2020-11-01 Dundalk D 1-156.6 1209 1361 24.06% 21.63% 54.32%-0.69 +1.6 20
2020-11-01 @ St Patrick's Athletic D 1-156.6 1361 1209 54.32% 21.63% 24.06%+0.69 -1.6 26
2020-11-01 Shamrock Rovers L 0-230.4 1163 1492 10.79% 18.13% 71.08%-1.72 -5.5 17
2020-11-01 @ Finn Harps W 2-030.4 1492 1163 71.08% 18.13% 10.79%+1.72 +5.5 41
2020-11-04 St Patrick's Athletic D 0-053.5 1497 1211 73.06% 17.44% 9.50%+1.88 -4.0 42
2020-11-04 @ Shamrock Rovers D 0-053.5 1211 1497 9.50% 17.44% 73.06%-1.88 +4.0 21
2020-11-07 Derry City W 2-032.8 1493 1270 68.25% 19.01% 12.74%+1.51 +6.6 45
2020-11-07 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-232.8 1270 1493 12.74% 19.01% 68.25%-1.51 -6.6 19
2020-11-09 Bohemian L 1-246.5 1215 1310 30.58% 22.18% 47.24%-0.36 -7.3 21
2020-11-09 @ St Patrick's Athletic W 2-146.5 1310 1215 47.24% 22.18% 30.58%+0.36 +7.3 37
2020-11-09 Derry City D 1-156.0 1120 1263 25.05% 21.74% 53.21%-0.63 +1.5 11
2020-11-09 @ Cork City D 1-156.0 1263 1120 53.21% 21.74% 25.05%+0.63 -1.5 20
2020-11-09 Shamrock Rovers L 0-231.8 1204 1500 12.55% 18.93% 68.52%-1.53 -6.5 19
2020-11-09 @ Shelbourne W 2-031.8 1500 1204 68.52% 18.93% 12.55%+1.53 +6.5 48
2020-11-09 Sligo Rovers L 0-246.1 1360 1194 63.14% 20.26% 16.60%+1.17 -27.0 26
2020-11-09 @ Dundalk W 2-046.1 1194 1360 16.60% 20.26% 63.14%-1.17 +27.0 25
2020-11-09 Waterford W 1-043.7 1157 1231 33.41% 22.30% 44.29%-0.23 +10.5 20
2020-11-09 @ Finn Harps L 0-143.7 1231 1157 44.29% 22.30% 33.41%+0.23 -10.5 24

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
2020-10-31 Galway United L 0-146.6 1196 1110 54.74% 21.58% 23.68%+0.71 -12.6 0-1
2020-10-31 @ Bray Wanderers W 1-046.6 1110 1196 23.68% 21.58% 54.74%-0.71 +12.6 1-0
2020-10-31 Longford Town L 2-356.0 1128 1094 48.27% 22.12% 29.61%+0.40 -10.1 0-1
2020-10-31 @ UC Dublin W 3-256.0 1094 1128 29.61% 22.12% 48.27%-0.40 +10.1 1-0
2020-11-06 Longford Town L 1-250.7 1123 1104 46.22% 22.23% 31.55%+0.31 -10.2 1-1
2020-11-06 @ Galway United W 2-150.7 1104 1123 31.55% 22.23% 46.22%-0.31 +10.2 2-0
2020-11-15 Longford Town L 0-146.5 1197 1115 54.30% 21.63% 24.07%+0.69 -12.5 0-1
2020-11-15 @ Shelbourne W 1-046.5 1115 1197 24.07% 21.63% 54.30%-0.69 +12.5 3-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2020-10-24 13.27% Finn Harps 1125 2 @ Bohemian 1339 0
2 2020-08-22 16.46% @ Sligo Rovers 1176 3 Dundalk 1413 1
3 2020-11-09 16.60% Sligo Rovers 1194 2 @ Dundalk 1360 0
4 2020-07-31 21.34% Sligo Rovers 1159 2 @ Derry City 1269 0
5 2020-08-23 22.15% Finn Harps 1117 3 @ Waterford 1218 2
6 2020-09-11 22.99% Waterford 1230 2 @ Bohemian 1323 0
7 2020-10-31 * 23.68% Galway United 1110 1 @ Bray Wanderers 1196 0
8 2020-10-25 23.70% @ Waterford 1218 1 Dundalk 1374 0
9 2020-11-15 * 24.07% Longford Town 1115 1 @ Shelbourne 1197 0
10 2020-08-07 27.01% @ Bohemian 1301 2 Dundalk 1427 1
11 2020-10-31 * 29.61% Longford Town 1094 3 @ UC Dublin 1128 2
12 2020-10-10 29.80% Shelbourne 1198 1 @ Waterford 1230 0
13 2020-08-01 30.09% Waterford 1216 1 @ Shelbourne 1246 0
14 2020-11-06 * 31.55% Longford Town 1104 2 @ Galway United 1123 1
15 2020-11-09 33.41% @ Finn Harps 1157 1 Waterford 1231 0
16 2020-03-06 33.60% @ Waterford 1206 2 Derry City 1279 1
17 2020-10-28 34.62% @ Finn Harps 1154 3 St Patrick's Athletic 1218 2
18 2020-02-14 34.66% Waterford 1225 1 @ St Patrick's Athletic 1220 0
19 2020-09-29 35.03% @ Sligo Rovers 1195 1 Derry City 1257 0
20 2020-08-18 35.16% @ Sligo Rovers 1167 2 Waterford 1228 1
21 2020-08-08 35.43% @ Sligo Rovers 1184 2 Shelbourne 1243 1
22 2020-08-03 35.83% Derry City 1244 2 @ St Patrick's Athletic 1230 0
23 2020-02-21 36.32% St Patrick's Athletic 1210 2 @ Sligo Rovers 1192 0
24 2020-08-14 37.39% @ Cork City 1149 3 Sligo Rovers 1193 0
25 2020-02-14 37.75% @ Finn Harps 1160 1 Sligo Rovers 1202 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2020-09-27 31.69 Shamrock Rovers 4 1450 41.82% @ Dundalk 0 1394 35.82% 22.36%
2 2020-10-24 28.73 Finn Harps 2 1125 13.27% @ Bohemian 0 1339 67.52% 19.21%
3 2020-11-09 27.04 Sligo Rovers 2 1194 16.60% @ Dundalk 0 1360 63.14% 20.26%
4 2020-08-14 26.57 @ Cork City 3 1149 37.39% Sligo Rovers 0 1193 40.23% 22.38%
5 2020-07-31 24.78 Sligo Rovers 2 1159 21.34% @ Derry City 0 1269 57.41% 21.25%
6 2020-09-11 24.04 Waterford 2 1230 22.99% @ Bohemian 0 1323 55.52% 21.49%
7 2020-09-04 23.83 @ Waterford 3 1207 42.62% St Patrick's Athletic 0 1215 35.03% 22.35%
8 2020-08-22 23.47 @ Sligo Rovers 3 1176 16.46% Dundalk 1 1413 63.31% 20.23%
9 2020-02-21 21.63 @ Shamrock Rovers 6 1367 65.05% Cork City 0 1181 15.11% 19.84%
10 2020-08-03 18.86 Derry City 2 1244 35.83% @ St Patrick's Athletic 0 1230 41.81% 22.36%
11 2020-02-21 18.68 St Patrick's Athletic 2 1210 36.32% @ Sligo Rovers 0 1192 41.31% 22.37%
12 2020-02-28 17.87 @ Derry City 2 1261 38.56% Bohemian 0 1297 39.05% 22.39%
13 2020-09-26 17.87 @ St Patrick's Athletic 2 1192 38.58% Shelbourne 0 1229 39.03% 22.39%
14 2020-02-21 17.84 Bohemian 2 1269 38.63% @ Waterford 0 1235 38.98% 22.39%
15 2020-10-02 15.98 @ Derry City 2 1247 43.81% Waterford 0 1246 33.88% 22.32%
16 2020-09-21 15.47 @ Shamrock Rovers 6 1435 64.53% Waterford 1 1254 15.51% 19.96%
17 2020-03-06 15.08 @ Bohemian 2 1280 46.24% Shelbourne 0 1261 31.53% 22.23%
18 2020-03-06 15.00 Dundalk 4 1415 64.75% @ Finn Harps 0 1162 15.34% 19.91%
19 2020-10-23 14.10 @ Derry City 2 1256 48.85% Shelbourne 0 1218 29.07% 22.09%
20 2020-10-31 * 12.59 Galway United 1 1110 23.68% @ Bray Wanderers 0 1196 54.74% 21.58%
21 2020-10-25 12.58 @ Waterford 1 1218 23.70% Dundalk 0 1374 54.72% 21.58%
22 2020-11-15 * 12.50 Longford Town 1 1115 24.07% @ Shelbourne 0 1197 54.30% 21.63%
23 2020-10-03 12.40 Bohemian 3 1314 48.26% @ Shelbourne 1 1211 29.62% 22.12%
24 2020-08-07 12.26 @ St Patrick's Athletic 2 1211 53.65% Finn Harps 0 1135 24.65% 21.70%
25 2020-10-09 11.63 @ Bohemian 3 1327 64.48% Cork City 0 1147 15.54% 19.97%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2020-08-14 63.8 @ Dundalk 2 1415 65.39% Waterford 2 1226 14.85% 19.76%
2 2020-08-23 58.3 Finn Harps 3 1117 22.15% @ Waterford 2 1218 56.48% 21.37%
3 2020-07-31 57.9 @ Dundalk 1 1430 66.47% St Patrick's Athletic 1 1227 14.04% 19.49%
4 2020-02-28 56.9 @ Shamrock Rovers 3 1400 40.57% Dundalk 2 1423 37.05% 22.38%
5 2020-11-01 56.6 @ St Patrick's Athletic 1 1209 24.06% Dundalk 1 1361 54.32% 21.63%
6 2020-02-21 56.2 @ Derry City 1 1263 55.56% Finn Harps 1 1169 22.96% 21.49%
7 2020-08-15 56.1 @ Shelbourne 1 1233 40.40% Derry City 1 1257 37.22% 22.38%
8 2020-09-05 56.1 @ Shelbourne 1 1236 52.99% Cork City 1 1165 25.25% 21.76%
9 2020-09-19 56.1 @ Shelbourne 1 1230 57.58% Finn Harps 1 1119 21.20% 21.22%
10 2020-11-09 56.0 @ Cork City 1 1120 25.05% Derry City 1 1263 53.21% 21.74%
11 2020-10-31 * 56.0 Longford Town 3 1094 29.61% @ UC Dublin 2 1128 48.27% 22.12%
12 2020-09-27 55.7 @ Finn Harps 1 1121 38.96% Cork City 1 1155 38.65% 22.39%
13 2020-10-28 54.6 @ Finn Harps 3 1154 34.62% St Patrick's Athletic 2 1218 43.05% 22.34%
14 2020-08-07 54.3 @ Bohemian 2 1301 27.01% Dundalk 1 1427 51.06% 21.93%
15 2020-11-04 53.5 @ Shamrock Rovers 0 1497 73.06% St Patrick's Athletic 0 1211 9.50% 17.44%
16 2020-08-22 52.4 @ Sligo Rovers 3 1176 16.46% Dundalk 1 1413 63.31% 20.23%
17 2020-08-21 52.1 @ Shamrock Rovers 0 1420 65.16% Shelbourne 0 1233 15.03% 19.82%
18 2020-10-16 52.0 @ Dundalk 0 1368 47.74% Bohemian 0 1338 30.11% 22.15%
19 2020-08-16 51.7 @ St Patrick's Athletic 0 1224 19.55% Shamrock Rovers 0 1423 59.52% 20.93%
20 2020-10-04 51.5 @ Dundalk 0 1362 69.71% Finn Harps 0 1121 11.72% 18.58%
21 2020-11-06 * 50.7 Longford Town 2 1104 31.55% @ Galway United 1 1123 46.22% 22.23%
22 2020-09-18 50.5 @ Derry City 0 1266 53.47% St Patrick's Athletic 0 1190 24.82% 21.71%
23 2020-03-06 50.4 @ Waterford 2 1206 33.60% Derry City 1 1279 44.10% 22.31%
24 2020-08-08 50.4 @ Waterford 0 1227 54.07% Cork City 0 1147 24.27% 21.65%
25 2020-09-13 50.4 @ Finn Harps 0 1118 24.29% Derry City 0 1268 54.05% 21.65%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2020-02-24 28.1 @ Dundalk 3 1414 70.76% Cork City 0 1160 11.00% 18.24%
2 2020-10-02 28.3 @ Shamrock Rovers 4 1482 72.35% Sligo Rovers 0 1206 9.96% 17.70%
3 2020-03-06 29.6 Dundalk 4 1415 64.75% @ Finn Harps 0 1162 15.34% 19.91%
4 2020-10-09 29.6 @ Bohemian 3 1327 64.48% Cork City 0 1147 15.54% 19.97%
5 2020-09-12 29.9 Shamrock Rovers 3 1424 65.18% @ Cork City 0 1166 15.01% 19.81%
6 2020-02-21 30.3 @ Shamrock Rovers 6 1367 65.05% Cork City 0 1181 15.11% 19.84%
7 2020-11-01 30.4 Shamrock Rovers 2 1492 71.08% @ Finn Harps 0 1163 10.79% 18.13%
8 2020-11-09 31.8 Shamrock Rovers 2 1500 68.52% @ Shelbourne 0 1204 12.55% 18.93%
9 2020-10-13 32.2 Dundalk 2 1359 62.04% @ Cork City 0 1135 17.48% 20.48%
10 2020-11-07 32.8 @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1493 68.25% Derry City 0 1270 12.74% 19.01%
11 2020-09-21 32.9 @ Shamrock Rovers 6 1435 64.53% Waterford 1 1254 15.51% 19.96%
12 2020-02-24 33.4 @ Bohemian 2 1287 57.79% Sligo Rovers 0 1174 21.02% 21.19%
13 2020-02-24 34.4 Shamrock Rovers 2 1389 56.54% @ Waterford 0 1217 22.10% 21.36%
14 2020-08-07 34.4 @ St Patrick's Athletic 2 1211 53.65% Finn Harps 0 1135 24.65% 21.70%
15 2020-08-22 34.4 @ Bohemian 2 1318 55.40% St Patrick's Athletic 0 1226 23.10% 21.50%
16 2020-08-01 35.7 @ Shamrock Rovers 3 1412 71.52% Finn Harps 1 1147 10.49% 17.98%
17 2020-09-04 36.0 @ Waterford 3 1207 42.62% St Patrick's Athletic 0 1215 35.03% 22.35%
18 2020-10-23 36.1 @ Derry City 2 1256 48.85% Shelbourne 0 1218 29.07% 22.09%
19 2020-08-15 36.3 Bohemian 1 1312 58.57% @ Finn Harps 0 1122 20.35% 21.08%
20 2020-02-14 37.1 @ Dundalk 1 1403 60.17% Derry City 0 1268 19.01% 20.82%
21 2020-03-06 37.1 @ Bohemian 2 1280 46.24% Shelbourne 0 1261 31.53% 22.23%
22 2020-08-14 37.5 @ Cork City 3 1149 37.39% Sligo Rovers 0 1193 40.23% 22.38%
23 2020-10-02 37.7 @ Derry City 2 1247 43.81% Waterford 0 1246 33.88% 22.32%
24 2020-08-02 38.0 Bohemian 1 1295 52.99% @ Cork City 0 1154 25.25% 21.76%
25 2020-03-06 38.3 @ St Patrick's Athletic 1 1220 51.61% Cork City 0 1160 26.51% 21.89%