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2003-04 Maltese Premier League Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Sliema Wanderers

41 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Marsaxlokk

8.15 points above expected

31 points · 22.85 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Hamrun Spartans

9.93 points below expected

4 points · 13.93 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Sliema Wanderers 18 13 2 3 41 37 15 +22 34.48 +6.52
2 Birkirkara 18 11 2 5 35 41 18 +23 34.39 +0.61
3 Hibernians 18 10 4 4 34 31 25 +6 31.69 +2.31
4 Marsaxlokk 18 9 4 5 31 30 22 +8 22.85 +8.15
5 Floriana 18 7 6 5 27 33 26 +7 27.68 -0.68
6 Pieta Hotspurs 18 7 6 5 27 28 25 +3 24.67 +2.33
7 Valletta 18 6 5 7 23 27 29 -2 31.12 -8.12
8 Balzan Youths 18 5 3 10 18 22 37 -15 17.16 +0.84
9 Msida St. Joseph 18 2 4 12 10 18 35 -17 14.42 -4.42
10 Hamrun Spartans 18 0 4 14 4 11 46 -35 13.93 -9.93
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Sliema Wanderers 10 7 1 2 22 24 12 +12 40.43 -18.43
2 Birkirkara 10 6 3 1 21 18 12 +6 34.27 -13.27
3 Hibernians 10 6 0 4 18 16 13 +3 31.47 -13.47
4 Valletta 6 5 0 1 15 14 4 +10 24.84 -9.84
5 Msida St. Joseph 6 4 1 1 13 14 7 +7 11.48 +1.52
6 Marsaxlokk 10 3 2 5 11 16 17 -1 27.92 -16.92
7 Pieta Hotspurs 10 2 3 5 9 12 15 -3 23.35 -14.35
8 Balzan Youths 6 2 0 4 6 6 14 -8 18.00 -12.00
9 Floriana 10 1 1 8 4 8 25 -17 26.43 -22.43
10 Hamrun Spartans 6 0 1 5 1 5 14 -9 7.29 -6.29

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Marsaxlokk 31 22.85 +8.15
2 Sliema Wanderers 41 34.48 +6.52
3 Pieta Hotspurs 27 24.67 +2.33
4 Hibernians 34 31.69 +2.31
5 Balzan Youths 18 17.16 +0.84

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Hamrun Spartans 4 13.93 -9.93
2 Valletta 23 31.12 -8.12
3 Msida St. Joseph 10 14.42 -4.42
4 Floriana 27 27.68 -0.68
5 Birkirkara 35 34.39 +0.61

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Marsaxlokk 6 Dec 14 – Jan 31 1 in 207
2 Birkirkara 5 Oct 13 – Nov 28 1 in 27
3 Sliema Wanderers 4 Sep 14 – Oct 6 1 in 20
4 Pieta Hotspurs 2 Aug 29 – Sep 14 1 in 11
5 Msida St. Joseph 1 Aug 29 – Aug 29 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Hamrun Spartans 5 Aug 22 – Sep 28 1 in 55
2 Birkirkara 3 Jan 3 – Jan 17 1 in 41
3 Hibernians 2 Nov 30 – Dec 13 1 in 26
4 Valletta 3 Dec 19 – Jan 10 1 in 16
5 Sliema Wanderers 1 Aug 29 – Aug 29 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Pieta Hotspurs 8 Aug 29 – Oct 24 1 in 81
2 Balzan Youths 4 Oct 17 – Nov 30 1 in 36
3 Marsaxlokk 7 Dec 14 – Feb 8 1 in 33
4 Msida St. Joseph 3 Dec 8 – Jan 2 1 in 17
5 Hibernians 6 Dec 19 – Feb 8 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Hamrun Spartans 18 Aug 22 – Feb 7 1 in 70
2 Pieta Hotspurs 7 Dec 13 – Feb 7 1 in 53
3 Msida St. Joseph 14 Sep 26 – Feb 8 1 in 36
4 Birkirkara 4 Jan 3 – Jan 24 1 in 17
5 Sliema Wanderers 2 Aug 23 – Aug 29 1 in 9

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Sliema Wanderers 1449 63 +47 12 9.9 +2.1
Birkirkara 1395 56 +9 10 8.5 +1.5
Hibernians 1340 52 +22 9 7.3 +1.7
Marsaxlokk 1261 42 -22 6 6.8 -0.8
Valletta 1263 38 +9 12 11.3 +0.7
Pieta Hotspurs 1206 36 -9 4 5.3 -1.3
Floriana 1142 31 -46 3 4.2 -1.2
Balzan Youths 1025 24 -55 6 7.2 -1.2
Msida St. Joseph 1107 23 +84 10 5.9 +4.1
Hamrun Spartans 900 5 -38 1 3.6 -2.6

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BY BIR FLO HS HIB MAR MSJ PH SW VAL
Balzan Youths —
0-0-2
1.03
0-1-1
1.86
1-1-0
3.20
1-0-1
1.28
0-0-2
2.10
1-1-0
3.09
1-0-1
1.71
0-0-2
1.34
1-0-1
1.52
Birkirkara
2-0-0
4.60
 —
0-0-2
3.97
2-0-0
4.81
0-0-2
3.31
2-0-0
4.20
1-1-0
4.59
2-0-0
3.79
1-0-1
2.47
1-1-0
3.27
Floriana
1-1-0
3.74
2-0-0
1.63
 —
1-1-0
4.34
1-0-1
2.19
0-1-1
3.18
2-0-0
4.27
0-2-0
3.13
0-0-2
2.20
0-1-1
2.30
Hamrun Spartans
0-1-1
2.38
0-0-2
0.84
0-1-1
1.27
 —
0-0-2
1.02
0-0-2
2.01
0-1-1
2.64
0-0-2
2.01
0-0-2
0.83
0-1-1
1.37
Hibernians
1-0-1
4.33
2-0-0
2.28
1-0-1
3.39
2-0-0
4.62
 —
1-1-0
3.51
2-0-0
4.49
0-1-1
3.59
0-1-1
2.47
1-1-0
2.78
Marsaxlokk
2-0-0
3.49
0-0-2
1.41
1-1-0
2.40
2-0-0
3.58
0-1-1
2.08
 —
2-0-0
3.61
1-1-0
2.23
0-1-1
1.55
1-0-1
1.91
Msida St. Joseph
0-1-1
2.49
0-1-1
1.04
0-0-2
1.34
1-1-0
2.94
0-0-2
1.13
0-0-2
1.98
 —
0-1-1
1.71
1-0-1
1.02
0-0-2
1.34
Pieta Hotspurs
1-0-1
3.89
0-0-2
1.81
0-2-0
2.46
2-0-0
3.59
1-1-0
2.00
0-1-1
3.36
1-1-0
3.89
 —
1-0-1
1.65
1-1-0
2.17
Sliema Wanderers
2-0-0
4.27
1-0-1
3.11
2-0-0
3.38
2-0-0
4.82
1-1-0
3.11
1-1-0
4.05
1-0-1
4.61
1-0-1
3.95
 —
2-0-0
3.35
Valletta
1-0-1
4.08
0-1-1
2.31
1-1-0
3.28
1-1-0
4.24
0-1-1
2.80
1-0-1
3.68
2-0-0
4.28
0-1-1
3.42
0-0-2
2.24
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.89 +12.2
Allowed 0.92 -11.9
Differential 0.93 +6.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.30%6.82%5.68%3.79%0.76%0.76%23.11%
16.82%8.33%8.33%4.17%2.65%2.27%32.58%
25.68%8.33%4.55%2.27%2.27%—23.11%
33.79%4.17%2.27%1.52%0.38%—12.12%
40.76%2.65%2.27%0.38%——6.06%
5+0.76%2.27%————3.03%
Total23.11%32.58%23.11%12.12%6.06%3.03%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.56 +0.00
SD 1.34 1.34 2.02
CV 0.86 0.86 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.17%—8.33%—4.17%16.67%
18.33%8.33%16.67%8.33%—8.33%50.00%
28.33%12.50%4.17%—8.33%—33.33%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%25.00%20.83%16.67%8.33%12.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 2.12 -0.96
SD 0.70 1.62 1.94
CV 0.60 0.76 —
Max 2 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%3.57%3.57%———14.29%
117.86%7.14%7.14%3.57%——35.71%
23.57%3.57%3.57%—3.57%—14.29%
37.14%3.57%7.14%———17.86%
4—3.57%—3.57%——7.14%
5+3.57%7.14%————10.71%
Total39.29%28.57%21.43%7.14%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 1.07 +1.04
SD 1.81 1.12 2.08
CV 0.86 1.05 —
Max 7 4 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%3.57%10.71%———21.43%
1—14.29%14.29%3.57%10.71%3.57%46.43%
23.57%7.14%3.57%———14.29%
3——3.57%———3.57%
4—3.57%7.14%———10.71%
5+—3.57%————3.57%
Total10.71%32.14%39.29%3.57%10.71%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.46 1.82 -0.36
SD 1.37 1.25 1.93
CV 0.94 0.69 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—12.50%12.50%16.67%8.33%4.17%54.17%
1—8.33%12.50%4.17%4.17%—29.17%
2——8.33%4.17%——12.50%
3———4.17%——4.17%
4———————
5+———————
Total—20.83%33.33%29.17%12.50%4.17%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.67 2.50 -1.83
SD 0.87 1.22 1.55
CV 1.30 0.49 —
Max 3 6 +0
Min 0 1 -6

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%3.57%3.57%——21.43%
110.71%3.57%3.57%7.14%——25.00%
2—21.43%3.57%—3.57%—28.57%
33.57%3.57%7.14%———14.29%
4—3.57%7.14%———10.71%
5+———————
Total21.43%39.29%25.00%10.71%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.36 +0.32
SD 1.28 1.06 1.56
CV 0.76 0.78 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.71%3.57%10.71%———25.00%
110.71%7.14%3.57%3.57%3.57%—28.57%
23.57%7.14%3.57%7.14%——21.43%
33.57%3.57%3.57%—3.57%—14.29%
4——3.57%———3.57%
5+—7.14%————7.14%
Total28.57%28.57%25.00%10.71%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.39 +0.25
SD 1.47 1.23 1.80
CV 0.90 0.88 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.17%16.67%12.50%———33.33%
1—8.33%8.33%4.17%—4.17%25.00%
24.17%4.17%4.17%4.17%4.17%—20.83%
34.17%8.33%—4.17%——16.67%
4—4.17%————4.17%
5+———————
Total12.50%41.67%25.00%12.50%4.17%4.17%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.75 -0.42
SD 1.24 1.51 1.98
CV 0.93 0.86 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%10.71%3.57%3.57%——25.00%
1—21.43%3.57%——7.14%32.14%
27.14%10.71%—7.14%——25.00%
33.57%3.57%—3.57%——10.71%
43.57%3.57%————7.14%
5+———————
Total21.43%50.00%7.14%14.29%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 1.43 +0.00
SD 1.20 1.37 1.92
CV 0.84 0.96 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%3.57%—3.57%——10.71%
110.71%—3.57%3.57%3.57%—21.43%
214.29%7.14%7.14%———28.57%
310.71%10.71%————21.43%
43.57%7.14%3.57%———14.29%
5+—3.57%————3.57%
Total42.86%32.14%14.29%7.14%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.18 0.96 +1.21
SD 1.33 1.10 1.89
CV 0.61 1.15 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.17%4.17%—4.17%——12.50%
18.33%4.17%12.50%4.17%4.17%—33.33%
212.50%8.33%8.33%—4.17%—33.33%
34.17%8.33%—4.17%——16.67%
4———————
5+4.17%—————4.17%
Total33.33%25.00%20.83%12.50%8.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.71 1.38 +0.33
SD 1.16 1.31 1.93
CV 0.68 0.95 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 24

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Sliema Wanderers 1449 41 34.48 +6.52 87.0% 20 26 31 34 38 45 47
Birkirkara 1395 35 34.39 +0.61 53.0% 22 25 31 35 38 42 47
Hibernians 1340 34 31.69 +2.31 61.0% 17 21 28 32 36 40 45
Valletta 1263 23 31.12 -8.12 10.0% 16 21 28 31 35 40 46
Marsaxlokk 1261 31 22.85 +8.15 93.0% 10 15 19 22 26 33 36
Pieta Hotspurs 1206 27 24.67 +2.33 71.0% 12 16 21 24 28 34 40
Floriana 1142 27 27.68 -0.68 47.0% 14 19 23 28 32 36 43
Msida St. Joseph 1107 10 14.42 -4.42 17.0% 3 6 11 14 17 24 30
Balzan Youths 1025 18 17.16 +0.84 60.0% 6 8 13 17 21 26 32
Hamrun Spartans 900 4 13.93 -9.93 3.0% 3 7 11 14 17 20 26

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -3% * Slight Edge: -3% to 3.5% * Clear Edge: 3.5% to 8.5% * Strong Edge: 8.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-7.58%
No Edge
36.36%19.70%43.94%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -26.37 Elo pts.
169 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.25 goals
Road-Tilted
-2-0.16+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.08 * Tight Race: 0.08 to 0.21 * Comfortable: 0.21 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.2
Wide Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
31%
Sliema Wanderers, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.33/gm
Runaway
00.220.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.26 * Some Luck: 4.26 to 6.39 * Lucky: 6.39 to 8.52 * Wild Swing: 8.52 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.04 * Close: 1.04 to 1.56 * Off: 1.56 to 2.08 * Way Off: 2.08 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.52 points
Some Luck
05.3213
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.60
Pinpoint
01.303
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
93.00%
Marsaxlokk
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
3.00%
Hamrun Spartans
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.27 * Lopsided: 0.27 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.65 * Moderate Separation: 1.65 to 2 * Strong Separation: 2 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 79% * Clear Edge: 79% to 84% * Wide Edge: 84% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 92.5% * Clear Edge: 92.5% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 98% * Dominant: 98% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 56.5% * Frequent: 56.5% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 26% * Very Frequent: 26% and up.
Gini Index
0.24
Top-Heavy
00.20.270.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 149.99
2.00
Strong Separation
0.951.6522.253
Interquartile Edge
74%
Slight Edge
50%72.5%79%84%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 94%
94%
Clear Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
55%
Some Drama
0%54%100%
Blowouts
Expected
20%
Occasional
0%22%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.42 * Slight Separation: 0.42 to 0.46 * Notable Separation: 0.46 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.74 * Strong Carryover: 0.74 to 0.83 * Near-Lock: 0.83 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Upset-Prone: 18.5% to 23% * Very Upset-Prone: 23% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 12% * As Expected: 12% to 15.5% * Shaky Favorites: 15.5% to 19.5% * Very Shaky: 19.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.55
Highly Predictable
00.572
Matchup Imbalance
0.40
Very Even
00.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.30
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.74
Strong Carryover
00.570.741
Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Upset-Prone
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Very Shaky
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.
Probability calibration
0.70
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.13
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.077
Well Within Noise
00.1420.4

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Sliema Wanderers31.00%22.00%20.00%18.00%5.00%3.00%—1.00%——
Birkirkara31.00%30.00%14.00%11.00%8.00%4.00%2.00%———
Hibernians16.00%19.00%21.00%9.00%13.00%14.00%5.00%3.00%——
Marsaxlokk2.00%—6.00%7.00%13.00%22.00%30.00%11.00%7.00%2.00%
Floriana4.00%8.00%17.00%22.00%14.00%14.00%14.00%4.00%3.00%—
Pieta Hotspurs2.00%4.00%4.00%13.00%19.00%25.00%24.00%6.00%1.00%2.00%
Valletta14.00%17.00%17.00%17.00%20.00%6.00%5.00%4.00%——
Balzan Youths——1.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%13.00%34.00%24.00%16.00%
Msida St. Joseph———1.00%3.00%6.00%4.00%17.00%31.00%38.00%
Hamrun Spartans————1.00%—3.00%20.00%34.00%42.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Lost relegation playoff
Birkirkara 100% —
Sliema Wanderers 100% —
Valletta 100% —
Hibernians 99.00% 1.00%
Floriana 98.00% 2.00%
Pieta Hotspurs 96.00% 4.00%
Marsaxlokk 93.00% 7.00%
Balzan Youths 71.00% 29.00%
Msida St. Joseph 29.00% 71.00%
Hamrun Spartans 14.00% 86.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that fixed the regular-season standings and projected only the promotion/relegation playoff, each participating team's chance of going up versus staying at this level.

Team Same level Lost relegation playoff
Birkirkara 100% —
Floriana 100% —
Hibernians 100% —
Marsaxlokk 100% —
Pieta Hotspurs 100% —
Sliema Wanderers 100% —
Valletta 99.57% 0.43%
Balzan Youths 85.36% 14.64%
Msida St. Joseph 12.87% 87.13%
Hamrun Spartans 2.20% 97.80%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2003-08-22 Hamrun Spartans W 2-031.2 1315 1143 60.84% 19.98% 19.19%+0.86 +14.0 3
2003-08-22 @ Valletta L 0-231.2 1143 1315 19.19% 19.98% 60.84%-0.86 -14.0 0
2003-08-23 Sliema Wanderers D 2-259.7 1147 1337 17.69% 19.79% 62.52%-1.28 +2.6 1
2003-08-23 @ Marsaxlokk D 2-259.7 1337 1147 62.52% 19.79% 17.69%+1.28 -2.6 1
2003-08-24 Birkirkara L 2-345.3 1149 1305 20.67% 20.14% 59.19%-1.08 -7.1 0
2003-08-24 @ Pieta Hotspurs W 3-245.3 1305 1149 59.19% 20.14% 20.67%+1.08 +7.1 3
2003-08-24 Floriana L 1-535.1 1125 1217 27.48% 20.62% 51.89%-0.70 -30.4 0
2003-08-24 @ Balzan Youths W 5-135.1 1217 1125 51.89% 20.62% 27.48%+0.70 +30.4 3
2003-08-24 Hibernians L 2-342.6 1050 1300 13.25% 19.03% 67.72%-1.64 -4.7 0
2003-08-24 @ Msida St. Joseph W 3-242.6 1300 1050 67.72% 19.03% 13.25%+1.64 +4.7 3
2003-08-29 Msida St. Joseph L 1-449.0 1334 1045 70.56% 18.46% 10.98%+1.56 -53.3 1
2003-08-29 @ Sliema Wanderers W 4-149.0 1045 1334 10.98% 18.46% 70.56%-1.56 +53.3 3
2003-08-29 Pieta Hotspurs L 0-334.6 1129 1142 37.77% 20.88% 41.35%-0.23 -36.2 0
2003-08-29 @ Hamrun Spartans W 3-034.6 1142 1129 41.35% 20.88% 37.77%+0.23 +36.2 3
2003-08-31 Balzan Youths W 2-138.4 1305 1095 64.37% 19.56% 16.07%+1.09 +6.0 6
2003-08-31 @ Hibernians L 1-238.4 1095 1305 16.07% 19.56% 64.37%-1.09 -6.0 0
2003-08-31 Marsaxlokk W 3-245.1 1312 1150 59.82% 20.08% 20.10%+0.80 +6.9 6
2003-08-31 @ Birkirkara L 2-345.1 1150 1312 20.10% 20.08% 59.82%-0.80 -6.9 1
2003-09-01 Valletta D 1-154.4 1247 1329 28.61% 20.68% 50.71%-0.64 +1.6 4
2003-09-01 @ Floriana D 1-154.4 1329 1247 50.71% 20.68% 28.61%+0.64 -1.6 4
2003-09-13 Birkirkara L 1-730.4 1098 1319 15.29% 19.43% 65.28%-1.46 -26.0 3
2003-09-13 @ Msida St. Joseph W 7-130.4 1319 1098 65.28% 19.43% 15.29%+1.46 +26.0 9
2003-09-13 Hamrun Spartans W 3-248.8 1143 1093 46.52% 20.81% 32.67%+0.14 +10.5 4
2003-09-13 @ Marsaxlokk L 2-348.8 1093 1143 32.67% 20.81% 46.52%-0.14 -10.5 0
2003-09-14 Pieta Hotspurs L 1-251.6 1328 1178 58.54% 20.20% 21.26%+0.73 -18.2 4
2003-09-14 @ Valletta W 2-151.6 1178 1328 21.26% 20.20% 58.54%-0.73 +18.2 6
2003-09-14 Sliema Wanderers L 1-336.0 1089 1281 17.49% 19.77% 62.75%-1.29 -11.1 0
2003-09-14 @ Balzan Youths W 3-136.0 1281 1089 62.75% 19.77% 17.49%+1.29 +11.2 4
2003-09-19 Balzan Youths W 3-026.5 1345 1078 68.99% 18.79% 12.22%+1.42 +13.3 12
2003-09-19 @ Birkirkara L 0-326.5 1078 1345 12.22% 18.79% 68.99%-1.42 -13.3 0
2003-09-19 Marsaxlokk D 1-153.7 1196 1153 45.55% 20.83% 33.62%+0.10 -0.9 7
2003-09-19 @ Pieta Hotspurs D 1-153.7 1153 1196 33.62% 20.83% 45.55%-0.10 +0.9 5
2003-09-21 Floriana W 4-139.0 1292 1249 45.61% 20.83% 33.56%+0.10 +27.8 7
2003-09-21 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-439.0 1249 1292 33.56% 20.83% 45.61%-0.10 -27.8 4
2003-09-21 Msida St. Joseph L 0-237.7 1082 1072 41.00% 20.88% 38.11%-0.10 -26.6 0
2003-09-21 @ Hamrun Spartans W 2-037.7 1072 1082 38.11% 20.88% 41.00%+0.10 +26.6 6
2003-09-22 Valletta D 2-260.1 1311 1309 39.73% 20.89% 39.38%-0.15 -0.0 7
2003-09-22 @ Hibernians D 2-260.1 1309 1311 39.38% 20.89% 39.73%+0.15 +0.0 5
2003-09-26 Marsaxlokk W 2-031.7 1309 1154 59.12% 20.15% 20.74%+0.76 +15.0 8
2003-09-26 @ Valletta L 0-231.7 1154 1309 20.74% 20.15% 59.12%-0.76 -15.0 5
2003-09-26 Pieta Hotspurs L 0-233.5 1099 1195 26.94% 20.60% 52.46%-0.73 -18.9 6
2003-09-26 @ Msida St. Joseph W 2-033.5 1195 1099 52.46% 20.60% 26.94%+0.73 +18.9 10
2003-09-28 Birkirkara W 2-151.6 1221 1358 22.52% 20.31% 57.18%-0.97 +17.8 7
2003-09-28 @ Floriana L 1-251.6 1358 1221 57.18% 20.31% 22.52%+0.97 -17.8 12
2003-09-28 Hamrun Spartans W 1-040.3 1064 1056 40.79% 20.88% 38.32%-0.10 +13.4 3
2003-09-28 @ Balzan Youths L 0-140.3 1056 1064 38.32% 20.88% 40.79%+0.10 -13.4 0
2003-09-29 Sliema Wanderers L 0-238.0 1311 1320 38.25% 20.88% 40.86%-0.21 -25.2 7
2003-09-29 @ Hibernians W 2-038.0 1320 1311 40.86% 20.88% 38.25%+0.21 +25.2 10
2003-10-03 Balzan Youths W 2-140.5 1214 1078 57.10% 20.31% 22.59%+0.65 +8.1 13
2003-10-03 @ Pieta Hotspurs L 1-240.5 1078 1214 22.59% 20.31% 57.10%-0.65 -8.1 3
2003-10-03 Floriana D 1-153.9 1042 1239 17.13% 19.72% 63.16%-1.32 +3.6 1
2003-10-03 @ Hamrun Spartans D 1-153.9 1239 1042 63.16% 19.72% 17.13%+1.32 -3.6 8
2003-10-05 Hibernians L 2-450.4 1340 1285 47.18% 20.79% 32.03%+0.17 -23.2 12
2003-10-05 @ Birkirkara W 4-250.4 1285 1340 32.03% 20.79% 47.18%-0.17 +23.2 10
2003-10-05 Msida St. Joseph W 2-034.8 1139 1080 47.75% 20.78% 31.47%+0.19 +21.5 8
2003-10-05 @ Marsaxlokk L 0-234.8 1080 1139 31.47% 20.78% 47.75%-0.19 -21.5 6
2003-10-06 Valletta W 1-041.3 1345 1325 42.47% 20.87% 36.66%-0.03 +12.9 13
2003-10-06 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-141.3 1325 1345 36.66% 20.87% 42.47%+0.03 -12.9 8
2003-10-10 Hamrun Spartans W 2-137.1 1309 1046 68.66% 18.85% 12.49%+1.40 +4.7 13
2003-10-10 @ Hibernians L 1-237.1 1046 1309 12.49% 18.85% 68.66%-1.40 -4.7 1
2003-10-10 Marsaxlokk L 2-443.4 1070 1161 27.55% 20.63% 51.82%-0.70 -14.9 3
2003-10-10 @ Balzan Youths W 4-243.4 1161 1070 51.82% 20.63% 27.55%+0.70 +14.9 11
2003-10-12 Msida St. Joseph W 3-134.4 1312 1059 67.93% 18.99% 13.08%+1.34 +8.5 11
2003-10-12 @ Valletta L 1-334.4 1059 1312 13.08% 18.99% 67.93%-1.34 -8.5 6
2003-10-12 Pieta Hotspurs D 1-153.8 1235 1222 41.41% 20.88% 37.71%-0.08 -0.3 9
2003-10-12 @ Floriana D 1-153.8 1222 1235 37.71% 20.88% 41.41%+0.08 +0.3 14
2003-10-13 Birkirkara L 0-143.9 1358 1317 45.28% 20.83% 33.88%+0.09 -15.3 13
2003-10-13 @ Sliema Wanderers W 1-043.9 1317 1358 33.88% 20.83% 45.28%-0.09 +15.3 15
2003-10-17 Balzan Youths D 1-153.5 1050 1055 38.88% 20.89% 40.23%-0.18 +0.1 7
2003-10-17 @ Msida St. Joseph D 1-153.5 1055 1050 40.23% 20.89% 38.88%+0.18 -0.1 4
2003-10-17 Hibernians W 2-149.9 1222 1313 27.58% 20.63% 51.79%-0.69 +16.2 17
2003-10-17 @ Pieta Hotspurs L 1-249.9 1313 1222 51.79% 20.63% 27.58%+0.69 -16.2 13
2003-10-19 Floriana D 0-049.7 1176 1235 31.46% 20.78% 47.77%-0.51 +1.3 12
2003-10-19 @ Marsaxlokk D 0-049.7 1235 1176 47.77% 20.78% 31.46%+0.51 -1.3 10
2003-10-19 Sliema Wanderers L 0-325.7 1041 1343 10.35% 18.27% 71.38%-1.94 -11.3 1
2003-10-19 @ Hamrun Spartans W 3-025.7 1343 1041 71.38% 18.27% 10.35%+1.94 +11.3 16
2003-10-20 Valletta W 4-141.1 1332 1320 41.32% 20.88% 37.79%-0.08 +30.6 18
2003-10-20 @ Birkirkara L 1-441.1 1320 1332 37.79% 20.88% 41.32%+0.08 -30.6 11
2003-10-24 Msida St. Joseph W 2-139.0 1234 1050 61.94% 19.86% 18.20%+0.93 +6.7 13
2003-10-24 @ Floriana L 1-239.0 1050 1234 18.20% 19.86% 61.94%-0.93 -6.7 7
2003-10-24 Pieta Hotspurs L 1-348.1 1354 1239 54.70% 20.47% 24.82%+0.53 -29.6 16
2003-10-24 @ Sliema Wanderers W 3-148.1 1239 1354 24.82% 20.47% 54.70%-0.53 +29.6 20
2003-10-26 Balzan Youths L 1-253.4 1290 1055 66.49% 19.24% 14.27%+1.23 -20.6 11
2003-10-26 @ Valletta W 2-153.4 1055 1290 14.27% 19.24% 66.49%-1.23 +20.5 7
2003-10-26 Marsaxlokk W 3-246.5 1297 1177 55.27% 20.44% 24.29%+0.55 +8.2 16
2003-10-26 @ Hibernians L 2-346.5 1177 1297 24.29% 20.44% 55.27%-0.55 -8.2 12
2003-10-27 Hamrun Spartans W 3-025.1 1363 1030 73.40% 17.75% 8.86%+1.81 +9.6 21
2003-10-27 @ Birkirkara L 0-325.1 1030 1363 8.86% 17.75% 73.40%-1.81 -9.6 1
2003-11-05 Hibernians L 1-243.6 1240 1305 30.73% 20.75% 48.51%-0.54 -10.5 13
2003-11-05 @ Floriana W 2-143.6 1305 1240 48.51% 20.75% 30.73%+0.54 +10.5 19
2003-11-16 Balzan Youths D 2-259.3 1230 1075 59.04% 20.15% 20.80%+0.76 -2.2 14
2003-11-16 @ Floriana D 2-259.3 1075 1230 20.80% 20.15% 59.04%-0.76 +2.2 8
2003-11-16 Pieta Hotspurs W 5-135.8 1373 1268 53.43% 20.55% 26.02%+0.46 +29.0 24
2003-11-16 @ Birkirkara L 1-535.8 1268 1373 26.02% 20.55% 53.43%-0.46 -29.0 20
2003-11-23 Marsaxlokk W 2-140.2 1324 1169 59.14% 20.14% 20.71%+0.76 +7.5 19
2003-11-23 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-240.2 1169 1324 20.71% 20.14% 59.14%-0.76 -7.5 12
2003-11-23 Msida St. Joseph W 1-031.8 1316 1043 69.37% 18.71% 11.91%+1.46 +4.7 22
2003-11-23 @ Hibernians L 0-131.8 1043 1316 11.91% 18.71% 69.37%-1.46 -4.7 7
2003-11-28 Birkirkara L 0-133.1 1161 1402 13.90% 19.17% 66.93%-1.58 -5.5 12
2003-11-28 @ Marsaxlokk W 1-033.1 1402 1161 66.93% 19.17% 13.90%+1.58 +5.5 27
2003-11-28 Valletta D 2-259.7 1020 1269 13.37% 19.05% 67.58%-1.63 +3.2 2
2003-11-28 @ Hamrun Spartans D 2-259.7 1269 1020 67.58% 19.05% 13.37%+1.63 -3.2 12
2003-11-30 Hibernians W 1-048.6 1077 1321 13.72% 19.13% 67.15%-1.59 +22.0 11
2003-11-30 @ Balzan Youths L 0-148.6 1321 1077 67.15% 19.13% 13.72%+1.59 -22.0 22
2003-11-30 Sliema Wanderers L 0-131.4 1039 1332 10.77% 18.40% 70.83%-1.89 -4.3 7
2003-11-30 @ Msida St. Joseph W 1-031.4 1332 1039 70.83% 18.40% 10.77%+1.89 +4.3 22
2003-12-07 Balzan Youths W 4-239.2 1336 1099 66.63% 19.22% 14.15%+1.24 +8.2 25
2003-12-07 @ Sliema Wanderers L 2-439.2 1099 1336 14.15% 19.22% 66.63%-1.24 -8.2 11
2003-12-07 Hamrun Spartans W 4-026.9 1239 1024 64.87% 19.49% 15.64%+1.12 +22.0 23
2003-12-07 @ Pieta Hotspurs L 0-426.9 1024 1239 15.64% 19.49% 64.87%-1.12 -22.0 2
2003-12-08 Floriana W 2-144.5 1266 1228 44.93% 20.84% 34.23%+0.07 +11.5 15
2003-12-08 @ Valletta L 1-244.5 1228 1266 34.23% 20.84% 44.93%-0.07 -11.5 14
2003-12-08 Msida St. Joseph D 0-050.9 1407 1034 75.67% 17.05% 7.28%+2.05 -6.3 28
2003-12-08 @ Birkirkara D 0-050.9 1034 1407 7.28% 17.05% 75.67%-2.05 +6.3 8
2003-12-13 Floriana L 2-450.8 1299 1216 50.76% 20.67% 28.57%+0.33 -24.7 22
2003-12-13 @ Hibernians W 4-250.8 1216 1299 28.57% 20.67% 50.76%-0.33 +24.7 17
2003-12-13 Valletta D 3-363.9 1261 1277 37.30% 20.88% 41.82%-0.25 +0.2 24
2003-12-13 @ Pieta Hotspurs D 3-363.9 1277 1261 41.82% 20.88% 37.30%+0.25 -0.2 16
2003-12-14 Marsaxlokk L 0-134.8 1002 1156 20.84% 20.16% 59.01%-1.07 -8.0 2
2003-12-14 @ Hamrun Spartans W 1-034.8 1156 1002 59.01% 20.16% 20.84%+1.07 +8.0 15
2003-12-17 Birkirkara L 0-131.3 1091 1401 9.93% 18.13% 71.93%-1.99 -4.0 11
2003-12-17 @ Balzan Youths W 1-031.3 1401 1091 71.93% 18.13% 9.93%+1.99 +4.0 31
2003-12-19 Hibernians L 2-447.8 1277 1274 40.02% 20.89% 39.09%-0.14 -20.2 16
2003-12-19 @ Valletta W 4-247.8 1274 1277 39.09% 20.89% 40.02%+0.14 +20.2 25
2003-12-19 Sliema Wanderers L 0-234.0 1241 1344 26.11% 20.55% 53.33%-0.77 -18.4 17
2003-12-19 @ Floriana W 2-034.0 1344 1241 53.33% 20.55% 26.11%+0.77 +18.4 28
2003-12-27 Hamrun Spartans D 2-259.0 1041 994 46.14% 20.82% 33.05%+0.12 -0.7 9
2003-12-27 @ Msida St. Joseph D 2-259.0 994 1041 33.05% 20.82% 46.14%-0.12 +0.7 3
2003-12-27 Pieta Hotspurs W 1-044.7 1164 1262 26.77% 20.59% 52.64%-0.73 +17.5 18
2003-12-27 @ Marsaxlokk L 0-144.7 1262 1164 52.64% 20.59% 26.77%+0.73 -17.5 24
2004-01-02 Msida St. Joseph D 1-154.0 1244 1040 63.85% 19.63% 16.53%+1.05 -3.7 25
2004-01-02 @ Pieta Hotspurs D 1-154.0 1040 1244 16.53% 19.63% 63.85%-1.05 +3.7 10
2004-01-03 Floriana L 0-244.8 1405 1222 61.84% 19.87% 18.28%+0.92 -38.3 31
2004-01-03 @ Birkirkara W 2-044.8 1222 1405 18.28% 19.87% 61.84%-0.92 +38.3 20
2004-01-03 Hibernians D 0-050.9 1363 1294 48.98% 20.74% 30.28%+0.25 -1.5 29
2004-01-03 @ Sliema Wanderers D 0-050.9 1294 1363 30.28% 20.74% 48.98%-0.25 +1.5 26
2004-01-05 Balzan Youths D 1-153.6 994 1087 27.33% 20.62% 52.06%-0.71 +1.9 4
2004-01-05 @ Hamrun Spartans D 1-153.6 1087 994 52.06% 20.62% 27.33%+0.71 -1.9 12
2004-01-05 Valletta W 2-149.0 1181 1257 29.42% 20.71% 49.87%-0.60 +15.7 21
2004-01-05 @ Marsaxlokk L 1-249.0 1257 1181 49.87% 20.71% 29.42%+0.60 -15.7 16
2004-01-10 Birkirkara W 2-150.0 1296 1366 29.99% 20.73% 49.28%-0.58 +15.6 29
2004-01-10 @ Hibernians L 1-250.0 1366 1296 49.28% 20.73% 29.99%+0.58 -15.5 31
2004-01-10 Sliema Wanderers L 0-331.3 1241 1361 24.30% 20.44% 55.27%-0.87 -25.1 16
2004-01-10 @ Valletta W 3-031.3 1361 1241 55.27% 20.44% 24.30%+0.87 +25.1 32
2004-01-11 Marsaxlokk L 0-134.9 1044 1197 20.93% 20.16% 58.91%-1.06 -8.0 10
2004-01-11 @ Msida St. Joseph W 1-034.9 1197 1044 58.91% 20.16% 20.93%+1.06 +8.0 24
2004-01-11 Pieta Hotspurs W 2-043.0 1085 1240 20.77% 20.15% 59.08%-1.07 +36.7 15
2004-01-11 @ Balzan Youths L 0-243.0 1240 1085 59.08% 20.15% 20.77%+1.07 -36.7 25
2004-01-17 Hamrun Spartans W 4-131.5 1261 996 68.80% 18.83% 12.37%+1.41 +11.4 23
2004-01-17 @ Floriana L 1-431.5 996 1261 12.37% 18.83% 68.80%-1.41 -11.4 4
2004-01-17 Sliema Wanderers L 0-141.6 1351 1386 34.63% 20.85% 44.52%-0.36 -12.3 31
2004-01-17 @ Birkirkara W 1-041.6 1386 1351 44.52% 20.85% 34.63%+0.36 +12.3 35
2004-01-18 Balzan Youths W 5-135.5 1205 1122 50.80% 20.67% 28.53%+0.33 +31.3 27
2004-01-18 @ Marsaxlokk L 1-535.5 1122 1205 28.53% 20.67% 50.80%-0.33 -31.3 15
2004-01-18 Valletta L 0-230.7 1036 1216 18.47% 19.89% 61.63%-1.22 -13.5 10
2004-01-18 @ Msida St. Joseph W 2-030.7 1216 1036 61.63% 19.89% 18.47%+1.22 +13.5 19
2004-01-24 Birkirkara D 0-050.3 1230 1339 25.49% 20.52% 53.99%-0.80 +2.4 20
2004-01-24 @ Valletta D 0-050.3 1339 1230 53.99% 20.52% 25.49%+0.80 -2.4 32
2004-01-24 Hibernians L 1-235.7 985 1311 9.15% 17.86% 72.99%-2.09 -3.4 4
2004-01-24 @ Hamrun Spartans W 2-135.7 1311 985 72.99% 17.86% 9.15%+2.09 +3.4 32
2004-01-25 Floriana D 1-153.9 1204 1272 30.30% 20.74% 48.96%-0.56 +1.4 26
2004-01-25 @ Pieta Hotspurs D 1-153.9 1272 1204 48.96% 20.74% 30.30%+0.56 -1.4 24
2004-01-25 Msida St. Joseph W 2-142.9 1091 1022 48.99% 20.74% 30.27%+0.25 +10.4 18
2004-01-25 @ Balzan Youths L 1-242.9 1022 1091 30.27% 20.74% 48.99%-0.25 -10.4 10
2004-01-31 Hamrun Spartans W 4-023.1 1399 981 77.93% 16.24% 5.84%+2.31 +8.2 38
2004-01-31 @ Sliema Wanderers L 0-423.1 981 1399 5.84% 16.24% 77.93%-2.31 -8.2 4
2004-01-31 Marsaxlokk L 1-247.6 1271 1236 44.39% 20.85% 34.76%+0.05 -14.2 24
2004-01-31 @ Floriana W 2-147.6 1236 1271 34.76% 20.85% 44.39%-0.05 +14.2 30
2004-02-01 Pieta Hotspurs D 0-050.1 1315 1205 54.05% 20.51% 25.44%+0.49 -2.4 33
2004-02-01 @ Hibernians D 0-050.1 1205 1315 25.44% 20.51% 54.05%-0.49 +2.4 27
2004-02-01 Valletta L 1-240.7 1101 1232 23.17% 20.36% 56.47%-0.93 -8.3 18
2004-02-01 @ Balzan Youths W 2-140.7 1232 1101 56.47% 20.36% 23.17%+0.93 +8.3 23
2004-02-07 Birkirkara L 0-625.3 973 1336 7.64% 17.23% 75.13%-2.30 -15.8 4
2004-02-07 @ Hamrun Spartans W 6-025.3 1336 973 75.13% 17.23% 7.64%+2.30 +15.8 35
2004-02-07 Sliema Wanderers L 0-328.9 1207 1407 16.90% 19.68% 63.42%-1.34 -18.1 27
2004-02-07 @ Pieta Hotspurs W 3-028.9 1407 1207 63.42% 19.68% 16.90%+1.34 +18.1 41
2004-02-08 Floriana L 2-438.8 1012 1256 13.61% 19.11% 67.28%-1.60 -7.9 10
2004-02-08 @ Msida St. Joseph W 4-238.8 1256 1012 67.28% 19.11% 13.61%+1.60 +7.9 27
2004-02-08 Hibernians D 1-154.3 1251 1312 31.17% 20.77% 48.06%-0.52 +1.2 31
2004-02-08 @ Marsaxlokk D 1-154.3 1312 1251 48.06% 20.77% 31.17%+0.52 -1.2 34

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2004-02-28 Birkirkara L 3-450.9 1252 1352 26.49% 20.57% 52.94%-0.75 -8.6 0
2004-02-28 @ Marsaxlokk W 4-350.9 1352 1252 52.94% 20.57% 26.49%+0.75 +8.6 3
2004-02-28 Pieta Hotspurs W 2-138.6 1425 1189 66.54% 19.23% 14.23%+1.24 +5.3 3
2004-02-28 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-238.6 1189 1425 14.23% 19.23% 66.54%-1.24 -5.3 0
2004-02-29 Balzan Youths W 3-137.3 1240 1093 58.28% 20.22% 21.50%+0.72 +13.4 3
2004-02-29 @ Valletta L 1-337.3 1093 1240 21.50% 20.22% 58.28%-0.72 -13.4 0
2004-02-29 Floriana W 3-141.6 1311 1264 46.07% 20.82% 33.11%+0.12 +19.4 3
2004-02-29 @ Hibernians L 1-341.6 1264 1311 33.11% 20.82% 46.07%-0.12 -19.4 0
2004-03-05 Hibernians W 3-143.3 1361 1330 43.84% 20.86% 35.30%+0.02 +20.5 6
2004-03-05 @ Birkirkara L 1-343.3 1330 1361 35.30% 20.86% 43.84%-0.02 -20.5 3
2004-03-05 Sliema Wanderers L 0-232.1 1245 1430 18.05% 19.84% 62.10%-1.25 -13.3 0
2004-03-05 @ Floriana W 2-032.1 1430 1245 62.10% 19.84% 18.05%+1.25 +13.2 6
2004-03-07 Msida St. Joseph L 1-340.8 957 1004 33.13% 20.82% 46.05%-0.43 -19.4 0
2004-03-07 @ Hamrun Spartans W 3-140.8 1004 957 46.05% 20.82% 33.13%+0.43 +19.4 3
2004-03-07 Pieta Hotspurs D 0-049.8 1243 1184 47.75% 20.78% 31.47%+0.19 -1.3 1
2004-03-07 @ Marsaxlokk D 0-049.8 1184 1243 31.47% 20.78% 47.75%-0.19 +1.3 1
2004-03-12 Birkirkara L 0-136.0 1232 1381 21.29% 20.20% 58.51%-1.04 -8.2 0
2004-03-12 @ Floriana W 1-036.0 1381 1232 58.51% 20.20% 21.29%+1.04 +8.2 9
2004-03-12 Marsaxlokk W 3-137.3 1443 1242 63.62% 19.66% 16.73%+1.04 +10.7 9
2004-03-12 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-337.3 1242 1443 16.73% 19.66% 63.62%-1.04 -10.7 1
2004-03-14 Hibernians L 0-136.2 1185 1310 23.81% 20.41% 55.78%-0.89 -9.0 1
2004-03-14 @ Pieta Hotspurs W 1-036.2 1310 1185 55.78% 20.41% 23.81%+0.89 +9.0 6
2004-03-14 Valletta L 0-132.7 1023 1254 14.58% 19.30% 66.12%-1.52 -5.8 3
2004-03-14 @ Msida St. Joseph W 1-032.7 1254 1023 66.12% 19.30% 14.58%+1.52 +5.8 6
2004-03-19 Pieta Hotspurs D 1-154.7 1389 1176 64.64% 19.52% 15.84%+1.10 -3.9 10
2004-03-19 @ Birkirkara D 1-154.7 1176 1389 15.84% 19.52% 64.64%-1.10 +3.9 2
2004-03-19 Sliema Wanderers W 3-043.2 1319 1454 22.71% 20.32% 56.97%-0.96 +51.5 9
2004-03-19 @ Hibernians L 0-343.2 1454 1319 56.97% 20.32% 22.71%+0.96 -51.5 9
2004-03-21 Floriana D 0-049.8 1231 1223 40.66% 20.89% 38.46%-0.11 -0.2 2
2004-03-21 @ Marsaxlokk D 0-049.8 1223 1231 38.46% 20.89% 40.66%+0.11 +0.2 1
2004-03-21 Hamrun Spartans W 2-140.2 1080 938 57.66% 20.27% 22.07%+0.68 +7.9 3
2004-03-21 @ Balzan Youths L 1-240.2 938 1080 22.07% 20.27% 57.66%-0.68 -7.9 0
2004-03-26 Hamrun Spartans W 3-025.0 1259 930 73.18% 17.81% 9.01%+1.79 +9.8 9
2004-03-26 @ Valletta L 0-325.0 930 1259 9.01% 17.81% 73.18%-1.79 -9.8 0
2004-03-26 Marsaxlokk L 0-341.2 1370 1231 57.43% 20.29% 22.28%+0.67 -51.9 9
2004-03-26 @ Hibernians W 3-041.2 1231 1370 22.28% 20.29% 57.43%-0.67 +51.9 5
2004-03-27 Birkirkara D 2-262.4 1403 1385 42.00% 20.88% 37.12%-0.05 -0.3 10
2004-03-27 @ Sliema Wanderers D 2-262.4 1385 1403 37.12% 20.88% 42.00%+0.05 +0.3 11
2004-03-27 Pieta Hotspurs L 1-442.3 1224 1180 45.65% 20.83% 33.53%+0.10 -35.6 1
2004-03-27 @ Floriana W 4-142.3 1180 1224 33.53% 20.83% 45.65%-0.10 +35.6 5
2004-04-12 Msida St. Joseph L 0-337.9 1087 1018 49.15% 20.73% 30.12%+0.26 -45.0 3
2004-04-12 @ Balzan Youths W 3-037.9 1018 1087 30.12% 20.73% 49.15%-0.26 +45.0 6
2004-04-12 Sliema Wanderers L 1-533.0 1216 1402 17.95% 19.83% 62.22%-1.26 -20.8 5
2004-04-12 @ Pieta Hotspurs W 5-133.0 1402 1216 62.22% 19.83% 17.95%+1.26 +20.9 13
2004-04-13 Hibernians L 1-241.1 1188 1318 23.19% 20.36% 56.45%-0.93 -8.3 1
2004-04-13 @ Floriana W 2-141.1 1318 1188 56.45% 20.36% 23.19%+0.93 +8.3 12
2004-04-13 Marsaxlokk L 1-348.3 1386 1283 53.24% 20.56% 26.20%+0.45 -28.9 11
2004-04-13 @ Birkirkara W 3-148.3 1283 1386 26.20% 20.56% 53.24%-0.45 +28.8 8
2004-04-16 Marsaxlokk W 2-042.2 1195 1312 24.64% 20.46% 54.89%-0.85 +34.3 8
2004-04-16 @ Pieta Hotspurs L 0-242.2 1312 1195 54.89% 20.46% 24.64%+0.85 -34.3 8
2004-04-16 Sliema Wanderers L 1-432.9 1180 1423 13.70% 19.12% 67.18%-1.60 -12.5 1
2004-04-16 @ Floriana W 4-132.9 1423 1180 67.18% 19.12% 13.70%+1.60 +12.5 16
2004-04-18 Birkirkara L 0-141.0 1327 1357 35.34% 20.86% 43.80%-0.33 -12.5 12
2004-04-18 @ Hibernians W 1-041.0 1357 1327 43.80% 20.86% 35.34%+0.33 +12.5 14
2004-04-18 Valletta L 0-527.2 1042 1269 14.83% 19.34% 65.82%-1.50 -25.8 3
2004-04-18 @ Balzan Youths W 5-027.2 1269 1042 65.82% 19.34% 14.83%+1.50 +25.8 12
2004-04-23 Floriana W 2-030.6 1369 1167 63.68% 19.65% 16.67%+1.04 +12.3 17
2004-04-23 @ Birkirkara L 0-230.6 1167 1369 16.67% 19.65% 63.68%-1.04 -12.3 1
2004-04-23 Hamrun Spartans D 3-363.5 1063 920 57.76% 20.26% 21.98%+0.69 -1.7 7
2004-04-23 @ Msida St. Joseph D 3-363.5 920 1063 21.98% 20.26% 57.76%-0.69 +1.7 1
2004-04-25 Pieta Hotspurs W 1-037.8 1314 1229 51.07% 20.66% 28.27%+0.35 +10.4 15
2004-04-25 @ Hibernians L 0-137.8 1229 1314 28.27% 20.66% 51.07%-0.35 -10.4 8
2004-04-25 Sliema Wanderers L 0-233.4 1277 1436 20.46% 20.12% 59.42%-1.09 -14.8 8
2004-04-25 @ Marsaxlokk W 2-033.4 1436 1277 59.42% 20.12% 20.46%+1.09 +14.8 19
2004-04-29 Balzan Youths L 0-233.4 922 1017 27.13% 20.61% 52.26%-0.72 -19.0 1
2004-04-29 @ Hamrun Spartans W 2-033.4 1017 922 52.26% 20.61% 27.13%+0.72 +19.0 6
2004-04-29 Marsaxlokk L 1-534.7 1155 1263 25.64% 20.53% 53.84%-0.79 -28.6 1
2004-04-29 @ Floriana W 5-134.7 1263 1155 53.84% 20.53% 25.64%+0.79 +28.6 11
2004-05-02 Birkirkara D 1-154.7 1219 1382 20.02% 20.07% 59.90%-1.12 +3.1 9
2004-05-02 @ Pieta Hotspurs D 1-154.7 1382 1219 59.90% 20.07% 20.02%+1.12 -3.1 18
2004-05-02 Msida St. Joseph L 1-350.5 1295 1061 66.43% 19.25% 14.32%+1.23 -35.6 12
2004-05-02 @ Valletta W 3-150.5 1061 1295 14.32% 19.25% 66.43%-1.23 +35.6 10
2004-05-03 Hibernians W 3-141.0 1451 1325 55.93% 20.40% 23.67%+0.59 +14.6 22
2004-05-03 @ Sliema Wanderers L 1-341.0 1325 1451 23.67% 20.40% 55.93%-0.59 -14.6 15
2004-05-07 Floriana L 2-354.8 1222 1126 52.38% 20.60% 27.02%+0.41 -15.6 9
2004-05-07 @ Pieta Hotspurs W 3-254.8 1126 1222 27.02% 20.60% 52.38%-0.41 +15.6 4
2004-05-07 Valletta L 0-130.1 903 1259 7.88% 17.34% 74.78%-2.27 -3.1 1
2004-05-07 @ Hamrun Spartans W 1-030.1 1259 903 74.78% 17.34% 7.88%+2.27 +3.1 15
2004-05-08 Balzan Youths W 2-143.2 1096 1036 47.97% 20.77% 31.26%+0.20 +10.7 13
2004-05-08 @ Msida St. Joseph L 1-243.2 1036 1096 31.26% 20.77% 47.97%-0.20 -10.7 6
2004-05-08 Hibernians L 1-440.4 1291 1310 36.89% 20.88% 42.23%-0.27 -30.0 11
2004-05-08 @ Marsaxlokk W 4-140.4 1310 1291 42.23% 20.88% 36.89%+0.27 +30.0 18
2004-05-09 Sliema Wanderers W 2-153.8 1379 1465 28.08% 20.65% 51.27%-0.67 +16.1 21
2004-05-09 @ Birkirkara L 1-253.8 1465 1379 51.27% 20.65% 28.08%+0.67 -16.1 22

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2003-08-29 10.98% Msida St. Joseph 1045 4 @ Sliema Wanderers 1334 1
2 2003-11-30 13.72% @ Balzan Youths 1077 1 Hibernians 1321 0
3 2003-10-26 14.27% Balzan Youths 1055 2 @ Valletta 1290 1
4 2004-05-02 14.32% Msida St. Joseph 1061 3 @ Valletta 1295 1
5 2004-01-03 18.28% Floriana 1222 2 @ Birkirkara 1405 0
6 2004-01-11 20.77% @ Balzan Youths 1085 2 Pieta Hotspurs 1240 0
7 2003-09-14 21.26% Pieta Hotspurs 1178 2 @ Valletta 1328 1
8 2004-03-26 22.28% Marsaxlokk 1231 3 @ Hibernians 1370 0
9 2003-09-28 22.52% @ Floriana 1221 2 Birkirkara 1358 1
10 2004-03-19 22.71% @ Hibernians 1319 3 Sliema Wanderers 1454 0
11 2004-04-16 24.64% @ Pieta Hotspurs 1195 2 Marsaxlokk 1312 0
12 2003-10-24 24.82% Pieta Hotspurs 1239 3 @ Sliema Wanderers 1354 1
13 2004-04-13 26.20% Marsaxlokk 1283 3 @ Birkirkara 1386 1
14 2003-12-27 26.77% @ Marsaxlokk 1164 1 Pieta Hotspurs 1262 0
15 2004-05-07 27.02% Floriana 1126 3 @ Pieta Hotspurs 1222 2
16 2003-10-17 27.58% @ Pieta Hotspurs 1222 2 Hibernians 1313 1
17 2004-05-09 28.08% @ Birkirkara 1379 2 Sliema Wanderers 1465 1
18 2003-12-13 28.57% Floriana 1216 4 @ Hibernians 1299 2
19 2004-01-05 29.42% @ Marsaxlokk 1181 2 Valletta 1257 1
20 2004-01-10 29.99% @ Hibernians 1296 2 Birkirkara 1366 1
21 2004-04-12 30.12% Msida St. Joseph 1018 3 @ Balzan Youths 1087 0
22 2003-10-05 32.03% Hibernians 1285 4 @ Birkirkara 1340 2
23 2004-03-27 33.53% Pieta Hotspurs 1180 4 @ Floriana 1224 1
24 2003-10-13 33.88% Birkirkara 1317 1 @ Sliema Wanderers 1358 0
25 2004-01-31 34.76% Marsaxlokk 1236 2 @ Floriana 1271 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2003-08-29 53.29 Msida St. Joseph 4 1045 10.98% @ Sliema Wanderers 1 1334 70.56% 18.46%
2 2004-03-26 51.90 Marsaxlokk 3 1231 22.28% @ Hibernians 0 1370 57.43% 20.29%
3 2004-03-19 51.51 @ Hibernians 3 1319 22.71% Sliema Wanderers 0 1454 56.97% 20.32%
4 2004-04-12 45.04 Msida St. Joseph 3 1018 30.12% @ Balzan Youths 0 1087 49.15% 20.73%
5 2004-01-03 38.34 Floriana 2 1222 18.28% @ Birkirkara 0 1405 61.84% 19.87%
6 2004-01-11 36.70 @ Balzan Youths 2 1085 20.77% Pieta Hotspurs 0 1240 59.08% 20.15%
7 2003-08-29 36.23 Pieta Hotspurs 3 1142 41.35% @ Hamrun Spartans 0 1129 37.77% 20.88%
8 2004-03-27 35.64 Pieta Hotspurs 4 1180 33.53% @ Floriana 1 1224 45.65% 20.83%
9 2004-05-02 35.58 Msida St. Joseph 3 1061 14.32% @ Valletta 1 1295 66.43% 19.25%
10 2004-04-16 34.26 @ Pieta Hotspurs 2 1195 24.64% Marsaxlokk 0 1312 54.89% 20.46%
11 2004-01-18 31.34 @ Marsaxlokk 5 1205 50.80% Balzan Youths 1 1122 28.53% 20.67%
12 2003-10-20 30.56 @ Birkirkara 4 1332 41.32% Valletta 1 1320 37.79% 20.88%
13 2003-08-24 30.37 Floriana 5 1217 51.89% @ Balzan Youths 1 1125 27.48% 20.62%
14 2004-05-08 29.98 Hibernians 4 1310 42.23% @ Marsaxlokk 1 1291 36.89% 20.88%
15 2003-10-24 29.58 Pieta Hotspurs 3 1239 24.82% @ Sliema Wanderers 1 1354 54.70% 20.47%
16 2003-11-16 28.99 @ Birkirkara 5 1373 53.43% Pieta Hotspurs 1 1268 26.02% 20.55%
17 2004-04-13 28.85 Marsaxlokk 3 1283 26.20% @ Birkirkara 1 1386 53.24% 20.56%
18 2004-04-29 28.61 Marsaxlokk 5 1263 53.84% @ Floriana 1 1155 25.64% 20.53%
19 2003-09-21 27.77 @ Sliema Wanderers 4 1292 45.61% Floriana 1 1249 33.56% 20.83%
20 2003-09-21 26.63 Msida St. Joseph 2 1072 38.11% @ Hamrun Spartans 0 1082 41.00% 20.88%
21 2003-09-13 26.03 Birkirkara 7 1319 65.28% @ Msida St. Joseph 1 1098 15.29% 19.43%
22 2004-04-18 25.81 Valletta 5 1269 65.82% @ Balzan Youths 0 1042 14.83% 19.34%
23 2003-09-29 25.20 Sliema Wanderers 2 1320 40.86% @ Hibernians 0 1311 38.25% 20.88%
24 2004-01-10 25.09 Sliema Wanderers 3 1361 55.27% @ Valletta 0 1241 24.30% 20.44%
25 2003-12-13 24.72 Floriana 4 1216 28.57% @ Hibernians 2 1299 50.76% 20.67%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2003-12-13 63.9 @ Pieta Hotspurs 3 1261 37.30% Valletta 3 1277 41.82% 20.88%
2 2004-04-23 63.5 @ Msida St. Joseph 3 1063 57.76% Hamrun Spartans 3 920 21.98% 20.26%
3 2004-03-27 62.4 @ Sliema Wanderers 2 1403 42.00% Birkirkara 2 1385 37.12% 20.88%
4 2003-09-22 60.1 @ Hibernians 2 1311 39.73% Valletta 2 1309 39.38% 20.89%
5 2003-08-23 59.7 @ Marsaxlokk 2 1147 17.69% Sliema Wanderers 2 1337 62.52% 19.79%
6 2003-11-28 59.7 @ Hamrun Spartans 2 1020 13.37% Valletta 2 1269 67.58% 19.05%
7 2003-11-16 59.3 @ Floriana 2 1230 59.04% Balzan Youths 2 1075 20.80% 20.15%
8 2003-12-27 59.0 @ Msida St. Joseph 2 1041 46.14% Hamrun Spartans 2 994 33.05% 20.82%
9 2004-05-07 54.8 Floriana 3 1126 27.02% @ Pieta Hotspurs 2 1222 52.38% 20.60%
10 2004-03-19 54.7 @ Birkirkara 1 1389 64.64% Pieta Hotspurs 1 1176 15.84% 19.52%
11 2004-05-02 54.7 @ Pieta Hotspurs 1 1219 20.02% Birkirkara 1 1382 59.90% 20.07%
12 2003-09-01 54.4 @ Floriana 1 1247 28.61% Valletta 1 1329 50.71% 20.68%
13 2004-02-08 54.3 @ Marsaxlokk 1 1251 31.17% Hibernians 1 1312 48.06% 20.77%
14 2004-01-02 54.0 @ Pieta Hotspurs 1 1244 63.85% Msida St. Joseph 1 1040 16.53% 19.63%
15 2003-10-03 53.9 @ Hamrun Spartans 1 1042 17.13% Floriana 1 1239 63.16% 19.72%
16 2004-01-25 53.9 @ Pieta Hotspurs 1 1204 30.30% Floriana 1 1272 48.96% 20.74%
17 2003-10-12 53.8 @ Floriana 1 1235 41.41% Pieta Hotspurs 1 1222 37.71% 20.88%
18 2004-05-09 53.8 @ Birkirkara 2 1379 28.08% Sliema Wanderers 1 1465 51.27% 20.65%
19 2003-09-19 53.7 @ Pieta Hotspurs 1 1196 45.55% Marsaxlokk 1 1153 33.62% 20.83%
20 2004-01-05 53.6 @ Hamrun Spartans 1 994 27.33% Balzan Youths 1 1087 52.06% 20.62%
21 2003-10-17 53.5 @ Msida St. Joseph 1 1050 38.88% Balzan Youths 1 1055 40.23% 20.89%
22 2003-10-26 53.4 Balzan Youths 2 1055 14.27% @ Valletta 1 1290 66.49% 19.24%
23 2003-09-14 51.6 Pieta Hotspurs 2 1178 21.26% @ Valletta 1 1328 58.54% 20.20%
24 2003-09-28 51.6 @ Floriana 2 1221 22.52% Birkirkara 1 1358 57.18% 20.31%
25 2003-12-08 50.9 @ Birkirkara 0 1407 75.67% Msida St. Joseph 0 1034 7.28% 17.05%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2004-01-31 23.1 @ Sliema Wanderers 4 1399 77.93% Hamrun Spartans 0 981 5.84% 16.24%
2 2004-03-26 25.0 @ Valletta 3 1259 73.18% Hamrun Spartans 0 930 9.01% 17.81%
3 2003-10-27 25.1 @ Birkirkara 3 1363 73.40% Hamrun Spartans 0 1030 8.86% 17.75%
4 2004-02-07 25.3 Birkirkara 6 1336 75.13% @ Hamrun Spartans 0 973 7.64% 17.23%
5 2003-10-19 25.7 Sliema Wanderers 3 1343 71.38% @ Hamrun Spartans 0 1041 10.35% 18.27%
6 2003-09-19 26.5 @ Birkirkara 3 1345 68.99% Balzan Youths 0 1078 12.22% 18.79%
7 2003-12-07 26.9 @ Pieta Hotspurs 4 1239 64.87% Hamrun Spartans 0 1024 15.64% 19.49%
8 2004-04-18 27.2 Valletta 5 1269 65.82% @ Balzan Youths 0 1042 14.83% 19.34%
9 2004-02-07 28.9 Sliema Wanderers 3 1407 63.42% @ Pieta Hotspurs 0 1207 16.90% 19.68%
10 2004-05-07 30.1 Valletta 1 1259 74.78% @ Hamrun Spartans 0 903 7.88% 17.34%
11 2003-09-13 30.4 Birkirkara 7 1319 65.28% @ Msida St. Joseph 1 1098 15.29% 19.43%
12 2004-04-23 30.6 @ Birkirkara 2 1369 63.68% Floriana 0 1167 16.67% 19.65%
13 2004-01-18 30.7 Valletta 2 1216 61.63% @ Msida St. Joseph 0 1036 18.47% 19.89%
14 2003-08-22 31.2 @ Valletta 2 1315 60.84% Hamrun Spartans 0 1143 19.19% 19.98%
15 2003-12-17 31.3 Birkirkara 1 1401 71.93% @ Balzan Youths 0 1091 9.93% 18.13%
16 2004-01-10 31.3 Sliema Wanderers 3 1361 55.27% @ Valletta 0 1241 24.30% 20.44%
17 2003-11-30 31.4 Sliema Wanderers 1 1332 70.83% @ Msida St. Joseph 0 1039 10.77% 18.40%
18 2004-01-17 31.5 @ Floriana 4 1261 68.80% Hamrun Spartans 1 996 12.37% 18.83%
19 2003-09-26 31.7 @ Valletta 2 1309 59.12% Marsaxlokk 0 1154 20.74% 20.15%
20 2003-11-23 31.8 @ Hibernians 1 1316 69.37% Msida St. Joseph 0 1043 11.91% 18.71%
21 2004-03-05 32.1 Sliema Wanderers 2 1430 62.10% @ Floriana 0 1245 18.05% 19.84%
22 2004-03-14 32.7 Valletta 1 1254 66.12% @ Msida St. Joseph 0 1023 14.58% 19.30%
23 2004-04-16 32.9 Sliema Wanderers 4 1423 67.18% @ Floriana 1 1180 13.70% 19.12%
24 2004-04-12 33.0 Sliema Wanderers 5 1402 62.22% @ Pieta Hotspurs 1 1216 17.95% 19.83%
25 2003-11-28 33.1 Birkirkara 1 1402 66.93% @ Marsaxlokk 0 1161 13.90% 19.17%